To what extent probability concepts are important for being a good stock market analyst/fund manager.?
817621
If you tossed a coin, you have an equal chance of it landing heads as you do tails.  If you tossed it multiple times and it came up tails more often, then while you have the same raw possibility of it coming up tails next time, the likelihood (assuming a balanced coin) is that you are about to face a time of heads coming up more frequently.\n\nStocks are not coins.  It isn't just chance that sets a price up or down on any given day.  Still, if the company has been on the top ten biggest gainers list for three days, I'd start "betting" down because a "correction" is coming.  That is the closest thing to the 'coin toss' kinds of probabilities as you will get.  If you are trying to tie "probability concepts" to "being a good stock market analyst", I can tell you right now, you won't be a good stock market analyst.  Sorry.  As much as we popularly talk about the stock market being a crap shoot, it isn't.
676479
Statistics and probability aren't used to predict what future events will occur.  Based on simulation (e.g. throwing dice), statisticians can assign likelihood estimates to events.  In no way does probability estimate what event will come next.  We'll leave that to professional gamblers.  Probability is concerned with what happens in the "long run." \n\nYou say all things have a 50/50 chance of occurring - do you win the lottery every other time you play?  Do you get in a car accident every other time you drive?  You should re-think your 50/50 reasoning.\n\nStatistics isn't just probability - statisticians design studies, run clinical trials, program computers, ensure quality in industrial processes, and many other valuable tasks.
944945
manager tenures are important for the more successful ones like Bill Nygren at Oakmark get favorable reviwes in places liek morningstar (and deservingly so) performance look as far back as you can 5-10 year range and go from there. Cap size DOES reduce risk for the large cap sector is well established companies and can withstand periodicall losses in teh market. Small caps are generally younger companies and they will be hurt if the market suddenly tanks. Large cap doesn't have a better track record per say buy large cap would be something like Boeing and a small cap would be NTE big differences between the two. The more risk the more potetional for reward could happen. Barons does a review on mutual fund managers and they are very worthy a look (with Bill I even invested in his funds before moving to ETF's)
1124229
I guess you mean technical analysis for securities with respect to investment decisions. If you are new to finance, I recommend this link: http://www.investopedia.com/university/technicalanalysis/
67826
Stock market is a kind of business where things happen so fast that one can’t handle it. It’s like a fighter jet where one mistake makes up loose a lot. \n\nBut once you had a good grip on it, you do get good returns. I suggest you to enter in the market after learning and getting good info about how it works. \n\nIf you have 100$ for example as saving, I suggest you keep 33% of it in safe deposit, invest 33% in secure stocks, and take risk or do learning with 34%, so you wont loose all. \n\nIts better to start with any online company in the initial phase. and yes if you want to learn trading try to find some game or go to this website www.fxplayer.com or FXCM trading website become their member and start dummy forex trading, it will help you in understanding the logics and tricks of trading.\n\nIn this world, 5 things exist in all businesses.\n1- Seller\n2- Buyer\n3- Product\n4- profit/loss\n5- How quick you make a decision\n\nThe best TIP for any business like trading or anything that my dad told me is\n\nDon’t hold your stock or goods if you are getting some profit, cos you don’t know what price the next customer will offer you. \n\nWith my 15 years of business experience, when ever I go opposite to his direction, in 80% cases I never got the best price. Indeed experience counts a lot.
845872
(book) sheldon natenburgs "option pricing and volitility"-the math involved in an option pricing model isnt as important if you know what you want out of the options. risk management? options are the way to go-countless strategies
756507
This link offers information and NASD exams where you can start. The series 7 is a "registered representative" the basic stockbroker's exam and often considered the first important one to take. You might also try some various searches for words like" stock market analysis, exams, testing. Also try sites like that of the American stock exchage, NY Stock exchange and NASDAQ-they all have lots of information. Be wary of scams out there...there are those making more money selling their programs than making money on the stock market(and if their programs were so good, they'd make a fortune there, right?) \n\n\nhttp://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/amex.asp
388299
Mutual funds are a group of investors, that usually don't have enough money at one time, pooling there money together to maximize their buying power and  with more money they buy many different stocks in many different companies so that they limit their risk of loss by not investing in one company( or putting your eggs in one basket) Do to the fact that they pool their money the mutual fund can then afford a professional fund manager to pick which stocks, bonds, or money markets to invest in.  Also there are many types of funds, some balanced meaning they invest in all three, stocks, bonds, and money markets, simultaneously and some invest all in stocks, or bonds, or money markets individually. Anyway that is another big discussion. I hope that this helps you out.\n\nRemember mutual funds will never have the big returns of individual stocks but there wont be the losses either.\n\nAverage gains of 8% to 12% over the life of the fund should not be too hard to get.
970570
A mutual fund is exactly what the name suggests.It is a fund Created mutually by a no. of investors like me and you.each investor contributes some amount towards the fund and in turn receives units of that mutual fund in proportion to his/her contribution.\n\nThe fund manager will in turn invest that money in the  market and try to generate profits by selling and buying at appropriate times.\n\nhe will then pass on the profits to mutual fund holders(like u and me) after deducting his fee/commission.\n\nmutual funds have a lot of benefits\n1)it takes out the burden of managing your own portfolio of stocks\n2) it provides investors an opportunity to invest in stocks which otherwise are very expensive for a single person to invest \n3)it provides you access to professional management of your investment.\n\nmutual funds are primarily of 3 types\n\n1)Equity oriented funds:most of the money would be invested in equity instruments(shares):high risk and high return.\n\n2)Growth oriented funds:most of the money is invested in Debt instruments e.g.Bonds,debentures etc.:low risk ,low return\n\n3)Balanced funds: half the money is invested in debt ,half in equity:moderate risk,moderate return \n\nhope this helps....cheers
1115498
Take portfolio management or investment analysis
341302
Work on logic games; that can help with general reasoning. \n\nWhat are you trying to analyze? Work situations? Shipping? Personnel? There's a lot of books and resources, some probably available at your library, that give strategy for various aspects of business. Sorry I can't be more precise, but your question is very broad.
358597
None.  IMHO, you should start by learning how to invest, determining WHAT to buy through Fundamental Analysis and determining WHEN to buy with Technical Analysis. \n\nIMO, newsletters only make narrow recomendations based on their system of analysis and investment strategies, and often they are compensated heavily for their recomendations and therefore dangerously biased.   I firmly believe that to get a clear picture about any stock, and to determine whether you're actually going to invest in it, it's best to do your own research and adapt a system that meets your investment needs, style and risk level.  There are many stocks ripe for the picking just about at any time if you know how and where to look.\n\nStart with Investors.com, it's William O'Neil's online version of Investors Business Daily.  The How To Invest section is the best place to start learning the importance of Fundamentals and the basics of Technical Analysis.   The site has the IBD 100, a cross index list of the market leaders, the Stock Checkup, a great tool for checking fundamentals on any stock, and articles and analysis of stocks and general market conditions.  They also run various screens every day which in addition to the other lists, (IBD100, New America, stocks under $10, CANSLIM select, ect) are very helpful for finding investment ideas with solid Fundementals that are ready to move.  The CANSLIM method alone is a very successful and popular trading system, but I prefer to use a combination of Fund & Tech Analysis, rather that just the rating system alone.\n\nFrom there you can move on to more detailed study of Technical Analysis.  \n\nStart with StockCharts.com, they have an excellent free Chart School which helpfully explains various chart patterns and Technical Indicators and overlays.  Pay particular attention to the Chart Patterns section, and make sure you learn about Zig Zag patterns, Bollinger Bands, Moving Average, Volume, RSI, the MACD (Mac-D), The Williams %er, Stochastics, and the Chaikin Money Flow.  Sounds complicated, but when you start chart reading you'll want about a half a dozen or so of these overlays and indicators.  I personally rely heavily on the ZIG-ZAG, MACD, Chaikin Money Flow, Volume, Moving Average and RSI.\n\nStockTA.com is also an excellent Technical Analysis site, with charted Fibonacci resistance and support lines and will tell you if the stock is bullish or bearish in the short, medium and long run.  The site also has an extensive Candle Pattern Glossary and a fantastic technical screener.\n\nThe above sites do have premium services, but all the services I mentioned are free.  After you've absorbed some of the Technical information, do some reading on Fibonacci numbers and Elliot Wave theory, there are good links in the "School" section of StockTA.com.  I've been using Elliot Wave and Fibonacci's to help refine my in and out points.  StockCharts.com's "ZigZag" overlay helps me plot and count the waves and that helps determine where I am in the overall pattern.  \n\nSo basically I'll find interesting stocks through the screens on Investors.com or StockTA.com, run them through the Stock Checkup at Investors.com, if they measure up I'll run them through the Analyisis & Fib Analysis at StockTA.com and do an extensive chart study, examining the 2 yr, 1 yr, 6 mth, 3 mth, 1 mth & 5 day.  I'll also do my due dilligence, studying the profile, key statistics, headlines, etc. through Yahoo Finance and web searches.  If it all measures up and the stock is in a base or in a pull back and it's starting a wave 1 or wave 3, it's time to buy.\n\nRemember, always protect your downside with a stop loss or a trailing stop loss.  Once you have absorbed a few of the things I've mentioned, the fog will begin to lift and you'll start seeing which stocks should be bought or sold and you'll be able to do your own analysis on any stock, no matter where
550682
Oy that is a great question.  I take it you taking a risk managment or a derivative course! ;)  Basically you would have to put in functions (functions of interest and volatility variations) for both and then evaluate it accordingly.  It is nearly impossible to do by hand but computer can provide you with some good insight :).  That's when 3D probability that engineers love so much kicks in.  \n\nRival
123050
In my own opinion, I think paper trading doesn't give you the right skill set of trading stocks.\n\nPratice using your own money - but only a little bit - and only play with money you can lose. Then you will know how real excitment is when you're winning, and how down and depressed you can feel if your stocks are down. Emotions play a large part in share trading. Not so much in stock investing.\n\nYou need to know your fundamentals but as a trader, charting and technical indicators are much more important.\n\nIt is good that you are mathematical and analytical. Gives you a higher chance of succeeding.\n\nWhat you need next are discipline in your trading and controllin emotions.
1105435
Warren Buffett said that diversification is protection against ignorance.  He also said that its better to put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket very closely.   There's no point in putting your money in a lot of different instruments you don't understand unless you have a financial advisor or other manager who is doing it for you and has a better understanding of those things coupled with your own goals and risk tolerances.   The best way to get better returns while reducing risk is not to diversify though, its to educate yourself as much as you can on the investment vehicles that interest you.
6103
Hmm...I found a few things that might be helpful, in order of usefulness:\n\nhttp://www2.barchart.com/tools.asp\n\nhttp://www.thefinancials.com/mfr_free.html\n\nhttp://www.bravenet.com/?afilid=3116782582
838532
Part of fundamental analysis is not just reading the numbers, but knowing what to do with them.  \n\nI would recommend\nJim Cramer's Real Money by Jim Cramer \n\nCramer recommends a fundamental approach, similar to value investing.  This book gives a good  explanation of market cycles, and how to determine if a stock is 'cheap'.\n\n\nor\n\n\nHow to Make Money in Stocks by William J O'Neil\n\nO'Neil  uses an approach that combines fundamentals with technical analysis.  Its a more actively traded style that takes advantage of momentum.\nI found his  explanation of growth companies and  how to evaluate the fundamentals helpful.