What are the odds that the MS Gulf Coast will experience a catagory 3 or stronger hurricane this year".?
600207
Since the MS Gulf Coast is very short comparatively, the chances of a direct hit by the eye of a hurricane are pretty small in any year.  That said, with the forecast for 16 named storms this year, at least one of them is bound for the area.  4 to 6 of those 16 storms are expected to be major (cat. 3 or above).  Thus, the odds decrease some.  In addition, there are other factors such as the strength of the Bermuda High which might steer storms up the Atlantic coast instead of letting them into the Gulf.\n\nHaving said all that, you must remember just how big hurricanes are, so even an indirect hit will make a huge mess.\n\nIn short, the chances of the MS Gulf coast being impacted by a major hurricane are somewhat slim, but I certainly wouldn't just do nothing and hope for the best.  Make sure you are fully prepared starting now.
604792
No two hurricane seasons are the same.  The iconic prediction by Dr. William Gray came out in April, and is looking for another active season (link in sources).  I also read that an AccuWeather forecaster is predicting 3 major storms will hit the US Mainland this year.\n\nMy thoughts, as an atmospheric science grad student, are that this season will be above average because there is not a strong El Nino, limiting the interference in the tropics.  There will also be tons of heat added into the system, and in our 50-year cycle of hurricanes, we happen to be on the upslope (look at the 1950s, and the hurricane damage then).\n\nThe season will most likely not be as bad as last year's, and that's because last year's was record-setting.  The difference is that a lot more people are living in areas that are hurricane-prone, and that's why we're seeing more covereage of them.
677697
Actually, a Cat 5 could hit New York at any point of the hurricane season.  It would just rely on the exact set of "right" circumstances- that there was a blocking system on the  East coast, steering it towards NY, and that the hurricane stayed in the Gulf Stream as its main feeder, giving warmer water from the Gulf of Mexico.\n\nLater in summer would be more likely, as well, as the ocean temperature would be higher.
688148
Typically the most reliable source which is used by NOAA and the Weather Channel along with the governments to determine the answer to this question is the forecast by Colorado State University's Dr. William Gray. He is presently handing over the reins to Phil Klotzbach who has worked with him for five years preparing the forecasts.\n\nFrom the April 2006 forecast\nInformation obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season.  We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).  The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average.  We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2006 to be about 195 percent of the long-term average.  This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have maintained our forecast from our early December prediction as the Atlantic Ocean, although cooling slightly with respect to climatology, remains anomalously warm and central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures anomalies have continued to cool.  Currently, weak La Niña conditions are observed.  We expect either neutral or weak La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season.
595738
Are you looking for tropical cyclone prediction? This might be helpful:\n\nhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
608235
That would be low pressure. The center, or eye, of a hurricane always has low pressure.
625355
The forecasters feel that the Bermuda High will position itself about the same as last year. This means it will be difficult for hurricanes to curve northward along the East Coast, just like last year. If the forecasters are reasonably accurate, Long Island should not see any Category 3 hurricanes this season. I live in FL...you want me to send one your way?
314764
Florida all the way! I really think they will pull it off
439914
I think I have seen three to four at one time. I just depends on the conditions after a storm.
1136089
I notice the Tropical Prediction Center issued a hurricane warning for part of Florida, though it is not quite a hurricane yet. That is standard procedure if it is expected to become a hurricane, but for tornadoes one must exist before the warning is issued.\n\nAlberto is not particularly impressive on satellite or radar images. There is nothing on the SW side because of wind shear. Yet with recon flights and winds from doppler radar, scatterometers, and microwave sounders - if there is a 65 knot wind somewhere in the storm they'll find it. So a category 1 hurricane aint what it used to be.\n\nThere will be heavy rain and severe storms associated with it. There will be very strong winds - probably hurricane force at some locations - directly along the coast S-E of the storm center. Yet there is no chance it will become anything more than a weak hurricane in a wind shear environment over oceans not particularly warm this time of year.\n\nThus people affected should definitely be prepared, but if it is hyped too much people are being setup for a strong storm some time later which they won't want to evacuate for but should.
314278
One never knows.  Every season that guy at Colorado State says the season is going to be horrible, but one can't predict well in advance what the strongest regions of activity are.\n\nBut, the planet does seem to be in an up-cycle for cyclone activity in general as evidenced by the rare Category 5 storm threatening Australia.  So be prepared early.
1055757
Quite possibly.  They happen quite often, only a few of them are made as famous as Katrina though.  Katrina actually wasn't that big, if you look at hurricane records through the last couple years.
669540
If the Saints or Texans come anywhere near the Super Bowl, let alone the playoffs, the apocolypse is near...\n\nEach team will be lucky if they 3 or 4 games this year
1125708
HAARP. Their goal is to control the weather by 2025. I believe they have been messing around with it for years. \n\nThe military has been seeding clouds for years now, and has made leaps and bounds with the program. Although i doubt that anyone could create a storm with katrinas magnitude. Besides that, why on earth would AMERICAN military want to create a storm that would hit AMERICAN soil? Their funding comes from a healthy economy, stunting that system with a multi-billion dollar storm (or storms) simply defeats their plan.\n\nTheir hope is to be able to redirect major weather events, to dispell them, or to create rain in places of drought. I dont believe they have intentions of using this as a weapon, since it wouldnt make a very good one.\n\nThis same program though, has found ways of directing high frequency sound waves over a populus and causing severe nausia and head aches. This is the only thing they have considered using as a weapon, although i havent heard anything about it since the late 90's.
627528
During the next 5 years, I hope to see a Democratic sweep in all state and Federal governments (at least we will get a different set of lies), I am afraid we will see rampant inflation, horrid interest rates, serious weather pattern changes including more and more serious hurricanes on the East Coast. I expect that during the next 10 years, our ocean levels to begin rising causing more and more flooding in the gulf and East Coast. We well could face a serious uprising of the population due to the Iraq ordeal...very much like we had with Viet Nam. I do not foresee good times ahead. I also think our problems with Mexico have just started. I hope I am wrong.
1044256
In our area we had a lot of wind damage & rain. Trees were knocked down & the power was out for about a day. Overall it wasn't as bad as we thought it would be.\n\nI remember getting in the car & riding around afterwards to see the damage. We took the video camera out & recorded it all. I guess we were bored.\n\nNC/SC has been lucky lately. We haven't had a really bad hurricane in a long time. The worst I remember is Hugo in 1989. That storm scared me so badly. I was about 14 at the time & living in Marlboro County, SC. The eye moved just to the west of us. It was really scary! Those were the highest wind speeds I had ever experienced. It's been 17 years since that category 4 (nearly 5) directly hit us. I am worried that this year we have another one like Hugo.
10623
I don't normally do this but this caught my eye and I am going to "guess" Florida, because every afternoon I know when I was there in July I could set my watch to those darn storms.  \n\nMind you this was only a guess