will China(mainland) declare war over Taiwan?
478045
well.....right now....china's eco is booming up...so i highly doubt that china will ever invade tw at this time....coz when u r rich...u know the value of peace....but if they ever want to invade tw....i guess they can do through economic wise instead of invasions....coz through military...they cant gurantee a 100 percent victory..since usa is in between...but if they kept on giving tw bussinessman more special privileges to invest in china....somehow....tw's eco will merge with china's eco...rememebr...it is china merge tw not tw merge china....coz china's got way bigger marcket than tw....and perhaps this is the ebst way for china to control over tw...it maybe slow...but sure very effecitve......
26896
War is never imminent - it is decided by countries and politicans when it suits their needs. \n\nHistorically, China has seldom sought to expand past its borders even when it had the means to do so (during Marco Polo's visit, the Chinese navy was larger than the combined navies of Europe!). \n\nThe Chinese prefer to conquer through economics and bribery. Throughout history, it has sought to open up trade and accept vassals (by giving gifts) instead of outright occupation. In any event, I believe that the Chinese are very pragmatic people - and the long and short of it are that they wish to be left alone to make money. \n\nHowever, there are 2 things that may put the US and China on a collision course:\n\n1)  The touchy subject of Taiwan. View it this way: During the US civil war, if the Southern army instead of surrendering to the North had instead escaped to Hawaii and then built up a different country there, would the US now use all means to recapture the territory? If Hawaii then had the backing of the former Russia, would it change anything? If Hawaii then declared independence, would the US allow this to take place without taking any action at all? My view is that if this situation is treated sensibly, and a face saving structure is put in place, this can be sorted out without any resort to war. \n\n2) The question of Japan and its war time role in Asia, for which it has never apologised (read about the Nanjing massacre - in which the Japanese had killed anywhere up to 600,000 Chinese civilians in a few weeks).\n\nAgain, think of it this way: If the Germans after WWII had not apologised for the holocaust, and its prime minister today still visits the grave of those who perpetuated the extermination of the jews (the tomb of the unknown soldier in japan contains the grave of japanese war criminals), their school books still claim that Germany was not the aggressor in WWII, forced Jewish women into sexual slavery, tested chemical weapons on civilians (BTW, the pepetrators were never convicted in exchange for giving their research to the US military) denies the Holocaust took place, and at the same time, Germany wanted a permanent seat on the United Nations, would the jewish people agree?\n\nChina has been stepped on by many countries in the past (see opium wars, the japanese invasion during WWII, the foreign zones in Shanghai shared by the western powers etc)\nand now has the economic power and military might to stand up for itself. \n\nTo solve all the historical baggage without incident, we have to be sensitive to all that has happpened in the past so that it is not repeated. If we make intelligent policies taking into account all the historical factors, no one has to go to war.
881452
Well that depends on two scenarios.\n\nFirst is no invasion of either countries mainland. In that case, America would absolutely win due to the fact that they have more nuclear and ICBM missiles and they are technologically superior. America would suffer a lot of damage but then again, China would probably be destroyed.\n\nThe second scenario is an invasion of one mainland. then you have to look at the fact that the Chinese do have the largest army in the world though not as superior as the US Army. The US navy and Air Force would definitely triumph over any the Chinese could throw at them ( I mean the USA does have 10-12 Aircraft carriers). The Army and Marines are a different question as it would be a contest of quality vs. quantity.\n\nIn both scenarios, I believe that the USA would win though with extrememly heavy casualties. It has the foremost economy of the world and the most technologically advanced, a very skilled workforce, good communication networks and freedom of information.\n\nIt does depend largely on who declares war first because if the USA did, then no one American or anyone else would support it except Japan but if China declared war, then that would just motivate the Americans even more.
335379
Peter W. the way you talks sucks. Everybody have the right to have his/her own opinion, but you also have to RESPECT others or it is a big or small, rich or pore country and IF.... you can't do that, than you sucks! \nBye the way you have to get the facts clear. Taiwan was first in the UN, not China, Taiwan gave a lot of money to indonesia. Maybe much more than the US if you look to the %  , but Indonesia didn't metion or thank Taiwan like any other country afraid that China got angry.\nI'm not going into the details, because that would be a long story, but what hbj said is true. Hbj you also have to know that the main reason that Taiwan lost the veto seat because Shang Kai Shek and the KMT. They didn't want to share it with china. Now china got the seat and Taiwan has nothing. \nWhat Peter w. said about the government is also true. I live now 4 years in Taiwan and I can not say that I see much good in 4 years. Indeed they fight often. I'm neutral to al the parties, but I see that the main reason that the politics sucks is the KMT again. They always say no to everything what the government said and don't look or it could help the country. KMT is a very dirty party, with a very big ego and still can’t accept their defeat after 50 years of ruling Taiwan. In the 50 years they ruled Taiwan they HATED China. Everyone who said they want to go back to china or went to china went straight into jail. China was Bad, bad, bad. Now 6 years after they lost power they KISS china's *SS.!!!!!!!!! \nI agree with you that Taiwan deserve more respect from the rest of the world, but than Taiwan have to start first.\nFirst the politics most be taken serious, the second is: if Taiwanese are not interested in the other countries, why other countries should be interested in Taiwan. Why I say this is because when I see the Taiwanese news channels I can tell you that just 2% or 3% of it is foreign news and the rest is pure Local news with many, many political sh*t, sorry I say it this way, but it is.\nMany, many times they don't talk about the new law or political issues, but always making the other party (members) black ect. \nAnyway, after 4 years living in Taiwan, going into the Taiwanese live I figured out Taiwan cannot go back to china. Maybe they have a similar background, but Taiwan developed is own system, politics(good or bad), way of life, culture and have a democratic life. If they have to go back to china it will be the same as Taiwan have to go 50 years back in time.\nTaiwan should get more respect from the world, especially from the US. The US can not use a friend when needed and drop him when not needed.\nI wonder how the world would react if Taiwan had a lot of oil. I bet they would treat Taiwan much better. Do you think the US should attack Iraq if Kuwait didn’t have oil? I don’t think so! \nHBJ I’m sorry to say it, but it is all about money and there is a lot of money in China, so the world is not so interested in Taiwan anymore.....sad, but the truth.\nAnyway Taiwan has mine respect.
76626
Ok. Yes We would get involved with international support or not. The fact is we have invested way to much time money into Taiwan to let it change Gov'ts. The US however keeps an open opinion on the situation so not to effect the way china feels. Though taiwan is a thorn in china's side and they want it back they will not risk loosing all they have including there recent economic gains in the international community in order to take back such a minimal benefit. If you really want more of an answer just message me back!
433437
No, I foresee no real friendship bestween the U.S. and China. It is NOT in the cards. The friction between the U.S. and China will, in the future, get worse and China will take Taiwan also in the future and that will be the "straw that broke the camel's back".  Even an interpretationo of the bible says that the two countries will never be "friends".
1170239
Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895.  Many researchers, commentators, political analysts, etc. say that Taiwan was returned to China in 1945, but that is completely false.  Up until the present day, Taiwan is a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States, and that situation has existed from WWII up to the present day.  (The fact that the USA is the only country in the world with a "Taiwan Relations Act" and that that Act is a domestic law of the USA further confirms this analysis.)\n\nHow did Taiwan come under the jurisdiction of the USA?  The same way that Iraq did -- via "military conquest."   After the Declaration of War against the Empire of Japan on Dec. 8, 1941, all military attacks against Taiwan were conducted by US military forces.  Hence, the United States is/will be the "principal occupying power" of Taiwan.    All legal relationships for Taiwan in the post-WWII era arise from these facts. \n\nWhen the Japanese troops in Taiwan surrendered on Oct. 25, 1945, that marked the beginning of the military occupation of Taiwan.  (There was no transfer of sovereignty on that date.) The United States is the "principal occupying power"  and it has delegated the military occupation of Taiwan to the Chinese Nationalists (i.e. ROC).   In Dec. 1949, high officials of the ROC in the mainland fled to Taiwan and became a "government in exile."  Why are they a "government in exile"?  Because as of late 1949, Taiwan is being held under military occupation and has not been transferred to any country.   Thus the ROC is exercising "effective territorial control" over territory where it does not possess sovereignty. \n\nIn late April 1952, the post-war peace treaty came into effect.  Japan renounced the territorial sovereignty of Taiwan, but no recipient country was designated.  Under such circumstances, the territory remains under the jurisdiction of the "principal occupying power,"  which is the United States. \n\nHence, the ROC on Taiwan has the dual roles of  (1) subordinate occupying power beginning Oct. 25, 1945, and (2) government in exile beginning late Dec. 1949.  \n\nThis explanation fully shows why the ROC on Taiwan is treated as an orphan by the international community, although under casual analysis the ROC appears to be a real country.    In fact (obviously) the ROC on Taiwan is not a country, because it does not have 'TITLE" to the territory of "Formosa and the Pescadores." \n\nThe PRC maintains that Taiwan is a part of the PRC based on the Successor Government Theory.  This theory claims that since the ROC obtained the sovereignty of Taiwan on Oct. 25, 1945, and the PRC is the successor goverment to the ROC, so the PRC holds the sovereignty of Taiwan now.  The fatal flaw in this argument is that there was no transfer of sovereignty on Oct. 25, 1945.  \n\n(Why are most people are totally unfamiliar with the style of  reasoning presented above, and the conclusions reached?  It is because they do not research the subjects of the laws of war, territorial cession, international treaty law, etc. and their relationship to military government and military jurisdiction.)
222254
Mr. Acer, \nAs a resident in Mainland, I'd like to clarify for some "popular" views hereof.\n1. Almost all Mainland Chinese care about Taiwan problem.\n  Because it will be a great humiliation to China if Taiwan declare its indenpendence. you will have to confess, most "Taiwanese" came from Mainland China hundreds of  years or decades years ago. whether the Ming dynasty, the Qing dyansty, or the ROC who ruled Taiwan, they are all of "China". Taiwan is apart of China.\n2. As a critic military strongpoint if Taiwan splits it will be a great convenience for other foreign force to deploy missles, bombers and troops for attacking the mainland,as calld "a never sinked aircraft-carrier". That's why the USA is so pleased to back up Taiwan. And they are so skillful at alienating a country and back up an opposite side to achieve their goal- weaken and control a country, and get benefit from it.\n3. Do not label the PRC with "communist country" and think it wholely a evil. It's a cold-war ideology.\nAs you know that in the past China suffered poverty from the political movements and Taiwan benefited from the enormous American economy. But now with the opening-up started by Deng Xiaoping the PRC are advocating for great economy growth.(Ironically nowadays the Taiwan is hot for political campaigns:( ). A Taiwan manager told me that the current mainland economy is soaring just as Taiwan did in 70s. Many defects may you find, but dont lose confidence.\n3. Taiwan is now a mature, democratic country, so dont want to under control of a arbitrary gov. Please note that PRC never wants to destroy the current prosperty of Taiwan. On the contrary, Beijing is doing a lot to maitain the economical growth of Taiwan. It's the politicians who are scaring the mass as describing the "Communist China" as a devil who wants to ruine Taiwan as a "election words".\nWhat the PRC want is that Taiwan dont not declare its independence and not act as a jackal for other foreign countries. You Taiwanese can gov yourself in the name of China.
301313
If they will fight in china, china has a big chance to win. They got so many people in the army and then they local people who will help. On the other hand it would be possible that if the US fights a war in china. Half the population will help the US to kick the communist out. More and more people in China want democracy, but can they say that? can they do something about that? Think back to 1989 what happend to the people who asked for democracy. \nSo if the US fights a war in China it could go two ways.\nIf the fight a war outside china i think The US will win. The Chinese army is BIG, but there high tech is not that advanced (not yet).  \nBut let's hope that this all will not happend, because it will affect the whole world.
952383
For decades, both the government of Taiwan ("Republic of China") and of mainland China (People's Repubic of China), claimed each to be the only legitimate government of the whole of China. The only thing they both agreed on was that Taiwan and the mainland were the same country.\n\nThings have moved on a bit in the last fifteen years or so, as it seems more and more improbable that the Taiwanese KMT will ever march into Beijing, and Taiwan has become more democratic. But as I understand it, opinion in Taiwan is now divided about whether reunification would be a good thing or not; at the same time, China's attitude varies between threatening invasion, and finding some formula for co-existance along the lines of Hong Kong - "One China, two systems".\n\nHope this helps
662513
No.  China is great at defending itself, but that is about it.  There is no reason to invade the Chinese mainland, so don't expect a war any time soon.
847798
Most likely not.\n\nChina is holding over 1/2 $ trillion of our bonds.  Nobody walks away from that kind of money.  The position is so big they can't even sell it because no one has enough cash to buy it.\n\nChina has become a very active trading partner.  A lot of corporate interests on both sides would apply a lot of pressure (read - withhold campaign contributions) to keep the peace.  Since politicians are bought by this corporate money, they will do as the corporations say.\n\nThe only wild card is Taiwan.  Frankly, I don't think it's worth it to the Chinese to try to reestablish sovereignty there.  There are too many better opportunities elsewhere for them now.  But pride and ego can be a funny thing . . .
601435
It is on the island of Formosa, off the coast of China, north of the Phillipines.  It is a province associated with China, but its exact status is disputed.  Communist China considers it a "renegade province" that is an integral part of its country.  Most Taiwanese do not wish to become a province of a Communist dictatorship, but only a part of the Taiwanese people want to become formally independent of China.  That leaves the island's status undetermined for now.
1057168
world war three will take place in many countries by its very nature, however it will very like begin in the south china sea, more specifically over the Taiwanese straights, and will begin as a conflict between China and the US over control of the vast oil reserves found there, china has been growing ever more aggressive in its seizures of such waters, and the US is treaty bound to defend them, and strategically must, when this happens is very debatable, geopolitics fluctuate very dramatically, and those in power will pick their moment based on a complex integration of factors. monitor the bilderbergs, that will provide forewarning.
1058102
Very good question. I don't think so. Here is why.\n1. North Korean people have been brainwashed for a long time now and would have a very hard time adapting to South Korean values.\n2. Taiwan reunification would create a backlash among it's people who have hated China for a long time now. Would also hurt relations with the countries that support Taiwan now.\n3. Militarily speaking it would not benefit either South Korea or Taiwan.\n4. Would create an influx of people seeking asylum into other countries. Could also help destabilize the region.
717357
I believe that the war will be decided by leadership and geography.  If the US were to attack Germany, Russian, and China then the US will loose.  First the Germans have the best tank, artillery and a very good air force, the Russians have big time number tank, plans, missiles the whole nine yard, and China just have a huge army.  If you talk about a strategic war with nuke on the board then we are all dead.  Tactically speaking who ever start the war will loose.  If you look back to every war since the 1900 the side that start a war almost always loose.  So in short a war against Germany, Russia, and China would be bad if we do the attacking, how ever the three nation does not have the naval power to hurt us on our home land.  So it will be a grind and the three country combined has a lot more resource to use.  Also consider the fact that a simple mining of the key strategic straits of water will make it stalemate any way.
285332
If China wanted to take over Taiwan, there's nothing that anyone, anywhere, could actually do to stop it. The only reason they haven't done so already is because there's no real reason to - if their thinking on this should ever change, Taiwan would be toast, plain and simple.