How do weather forecasters predict temperature?
471029
They know where air masses originate & how cold those air masses are when they start at their source region.\n\nAs the air mass moves across the continent, it changes in temp to that closer in temp to the air mass already in place.\n\nFor instance, if an air mass orginates over nothern Canada, it will be dry & cold. As it moves south, it will start taking on characteristics of the areas that it moves over. It will get warmer. By the time it reaches say, Mexico, it will have warmed up tremendously.\n\nThey can predict how much kinetic energy will be gained or lost by that.\n\nI don't think there is an exact formula for this kind of science. Most of predicting the weather is actually "predicting"!\n\n;)
141354
Depends on where you live.\n\nWhen I lived in Florida, forecasts were accurate 90% of the time(exception: hurricanes). They can usually predict an average FL forecast 5 days in advance.\n\nHere in Denver, it is hard to predict what a front will do when the mountains to the west make it hard to predict- a good forecast is accurate for a day or 2 at best.
182826
Both weather and quake prediction rely on taking current and past data and projecting it into the future to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome.\n\nA meteorologist will look at satellite data, temperature, atmospheric pressure and wind readings and compare them to past weather patterns to determine if the upcoming weather will be warmer, colder, wetter, etc.  The weather reports are not set in stone facts unless you are dealing with the weather of the moment or the past.  The temperatures, storm and wind predictions are merely predictions of how the weather seems to be shaping up to be.\n\nSeismologists use similar methods to provide probabilities of quake activity.  They use current ground movements, known fault structures and evidence of past seismic activity to project if a quake might occur in an area within a period of time.\n\nThe biggest difference is a matter of time scale.  Weather happens on a much shorter time scale than seismic activity.  Geologic time is measured in periods thousands of years thus making short-term predictions very difficult.  The USGS has earthquake probability numbers on their website for California for a period of 30 years (e.g. Bay Area will have a 62.5% chance of a 6.5 or greater quake sometime in the next 30 years).\n\nCompared to the geologic time scale, this is like predicting the weather in the next hour.
1107510
-40 F or -40 C is a good estimate
602607
Weather satellites are used to collect basic data, such as temperature and moisture levels, which allows experts to predict weather to a reasonable extent. Past attempts to control weather have been largely unsuccessful and have centered mainly in trying to create rain.
972833
(Dunno, but weather's s'posed to be good there in the fall...)\n\nTry the Old Farmer's Almanac - they have long-range forecasts.\nhttp://www.almanac.com/weathercenter/
342058
If they predicted a 30% chance of rain, and it does rain, that means that they were 30% = 0.3 correct in this instance.  If you average these correctness values over, say, a year...then you'll get a value for how accurate your weatherman is.  Of course, you have to remember...That a person guessing 0 or 100% (yes it will rain or no it won't) should average to a 50% = 0.5 accuracy.\n\nSo, if the weatherman's accuracy is greater that 0.5 over several days...then the weather is more right than he is wrong.  That seems intuitive, eh?\n\nRemember that you can't just compare to what all the other weathermen say...and take the average 'risk' as the actual risk...because all weathermen get their information from Environment Canada, and the numbers will be skewed because they're all using the same information.
30909
They may calculate the odds of precipitation, how long it will take for the temperature to rise and fall based upon influences and when those influences will occur, how fast storms are travelling, how fast wind speed are, changing Fahrenheit to Celcius and vice versa.
869615
Pressure changes affect the wind.  Temperature change determines whether it will rain or snow.
769934
It's the actual temperature with humidity, wind chill factor (if applicable), dew point and other conditions taken into consideration. There's actually a mathematical equation to figure it out but it may be hard to find since the calculations are done by computers these days.
23682
It is an analog forecast using past weather patterns to guide the forecast.\n\nI quote:\n "Synoptic Forecast (Analogue Forecast) \n    (1).  The prior weather event associated with a given synoptic\n  weather type (pattern) in the past serves as a guide for the forecast\n   of the future weather event in case the similar synoptic type occurs.\n    (2).  Synoptic weather types\n  A.  Classification of weather types based on  the positions of\n      High and Low , upper-air flow, and prevailing storm track.\n  B.  Weather elements are predicted from the weather types.\n  C.  Example:  Hawaiian Synoptic weather types."\n\nFrom: http://www.csun.edu/~hcgeg004/forecast.html
992836
Alot of the things people consider "technology" these days are little gadgets such as cell phones and palm pilots and flat screen displays and what have you which make little contribution to the actual forecasting process. I.e., you can get a tiny radar image on your cell phone but it is nothing more than a weather service met could see on an AFOS screen more than a decade ago - only alot smaller so you can't see a whole lot of detail. These days you can get an automated forecast for your location on your cell phone which some computer algorithm spits out, but it is no match for someone analyzing the data. In many ways speed and quantity is sacrificed for accuracy and quality.\n\nSome technological advances are very helpful such as doppler radars replacing conventional radars, but many improvements come from using the existing technology more effectively to improve observation and modeling - theoretical advancements which make it possible to use satellites to sound the atmopshere, better understanding of physical processes from reasearch to make models more accurate, understanding small scale processes better so we can be better at saying whether a certain weather feature will occur in one county and not the next, etc.
666028
Weather and temperature data is extrapolated from given information on the real time data governing barometer, wind, current surrounding storm systems, time of year et. al. The forecast is derived from evaluation the given information against historical data to give you the future forecast. The most clear indication is in the percentages given for a chance of precipitation. The forecaster looks at the present data and measures it up against historical data with similar parameters and evaluates the percentage of time there was precipitation and relays that information to you in the form of a percent chance.
632951
it does not predict the weather....but if you have a storm moving in...the direction the storm is moving makes a difference
9872
Well, weather forcasters are much better at predicting the weather since they were 20 years ago, but even with high technology, weather is hard to predict because the atmosphere is changing every minute, tha'ts why forcasters update their forcast that often through the day.
1106348
"There are basically four elements of weather that can help describe weather. The four elements include  wind, temperature, air pressure and moisture." (From the ref.) These may seem an arbitrary choice until you realize that they are all easily measurable and independent of each other, whereas dew point and cloud cover can be said to derive from humidity, temperature and pressure.
1184702
Barometers measure air pressure. \n\nAt a given location a storm is generally anticipated when the barometer is falling rapidly; when the barometer is rising, fair weather may usually be expected.\n\nYou would expect the desert to have the highest reading.