How do you calculate the probability of a stock to be above/below a certain price at a point in the future?
366018
try this site\n\n\nhttp://www.futureaccountant.com/probability/
318123
You can find a lot of past performance of mutual funds on this web site.     http://www.micropal.com/\nalthough past return is no guarantee of future results - still, it could be used as an estimate.\n\nIf you want to calculate what an investment of $37,940 would add up to if it grew at 5% per year, just type this formula into an excel sheet:\n  =FV(0.05,30,,-37940)\nA whopping $163,974!
420977
Go to finance.yahoo.com (see below), enter the stock symbol, and then click on 'Historical Prices' on the left side, and then you can view open, high, low, and close values, as well as volume and adjusted close (which takes into account splits and dividends).\n\nIf you want to see the one year return for Sprint Nextel, click on the link below. That should show you daily historical prices from April 20 2005 to April 19 2006. Divide the adjusted close for April 19 2006 by the adjusted close for April 20 2005. Then subtract 1, and your return is .1724, or 17.24%.
256690
Buy a one month subscription to stockcharts.com for twenty bucks.  Use their advanced scan engine to search for stocks with a large average true range (ATR).\n\nThe list will change over time as trading activity changes.
135316
Go to Yahoo finance, in the upper right hand of the page click on my portfolio.  Set up a portfolio that tracks transactions.  Enter in the correct information and it will give you a rate of return.  \n\nUse this feature only if you want to track your personal finance.  If you are doing research on historical rates of return on particular stocks it would be better to use the following web site.\n\nRate of return is calculated by this formula in microsoft exel.  =((B1/A1)-1)  where A1 is the starting price and B1 is the ending price
443535
The first thing you should do is prevent a robbery from cleaning out the register.  You can do that by placing a stop order beneath the current price. IMHO, first support looks like around $80. Your stop should go in a little beneath that, in case the support level doesn't hold the decline. Stop at $78.  That's 12% below today's close.  That's your insurance in case the stock gets pummeled. I was around in '87, '98 and '00, it can happen and here's why.  Using the PEG ratio, the price to book ratio, the price to sales ratio; the stock is overvalued.  On the other hand, there are good things that can be said about being a leader in an expanding industry; an already good and increasing ROE and ROA; zero debt and I am sure there are probably some others, if I took a closer look.  \nBecause of the high PEG, there is a good chance the stock will sell-off systematically in the next market downturn.\nYou could let the stock run up for now, since that is the current trend, and start selling if a subsequent rally attempt fails to make a new high before running out of steam. Remember: "Ride your Winners and Sell your Losers".\nOh, and keep moving your stop up as the stock moves up.
830991
I'm wondering why you created the data 1-3500?  I would think you would use the set of data available and figure the standard deviation and average.  With that information, you would be able to predict tomorrows value at a certain confidence level.  I forget is that the p test or the t test.  its been a while since I took statistics.
385810
1.   Write down the amount of your total investment, including fees and expenses, if any. For example, if you bought $950 worth of stock and your fees were $50, then your total investment is $950 + $50, or $1,000.  \n  \n2.   Write down the amount of profit or loss associated with your investment. If your $1,000 investment in stocks is worth $1,200 one year later, then your profit is $1,200 - $1,000, or $200.  \n  \n3.   Calculate the ROI by dividing the profit by the total investment: $200/$1000 = 0.20, or a 20 percent annual ROI.
547680
I guess you need this for stock market prices?\n\nLet R_i be the daily price variations in percent.\nM = average of R_i \nVar = average of ( (R_i - M)^2 )\nSD = square root of Var
1162663
Hope and pray. Pay attention to what the market and what the stock is doing, but anything you do, it is still a gamble and you risk losing.
1168169
Goose is right. The formula is:\n\nFV = P x e^(r x y) \n\nwhere FV = Future Value; P is your principal, r is the annual interest rate and y is the number of years of continuous compounding and e = lim(n-->inf) of (1+1/n)^n\n= 2.7182818.(about)\nHere's link which explains it quite well and also has a periodic/continuous calculator to fool around with.\n\nhttp://www.moneychimp.com/articles/finworks/continuous_compounding.htm
913689
Add additional details to your question and I may be able to answer it.  I assume you are looking for the expected value, but some of you data is missing.\nE(X) = .7(175000) + .3(-amount of the loss)
817621
If you tossed a coin, you have an equal chance of it landing heads as you do tails.  If you tossed it multiple times and it came up tails more often, then while you have the same raw possibility of it coming up tails next time, the likelihood (assuming a balanced coin) is that you are about to face a time of heads coming up more frequently.\n\nStocks are not coins.  It isn't just chance that sets a price up or down on any given day.  Still, if the company has been on the top ten biggest gainers list for three days, I'd start "betting" down because a "correction" is coming.  That is the closest thing to the 'coin toss' kinds of probabilities as you will get.  If you are trying to tie "probability concepts" to "being a good stock market analyst", I can tell you right now, you won't be a good stock market analyst.  Sorry.  As much as we popularly talk about the stock market being a crap shoot, it isn't.
131061
After one year the value x will x+x*i=x(1+i) where i the profit and x is the initial value\nAfter 2 year will be x(1+i)^2\nAfter 7 years (2004-1997) will be x(1+i)^7\n\nThe final future value is 1311\nThe initial present value is 309\n(309)(1+i)^7 = 1311\n(1+i)^7 = 1311/309 = 4.2427\n(1+i) = 4.2427^(1/7)\n1+i = 1.22921\ni=0.2292=22.92% annualy\n\nAt 1997- 309*(1+0.229)^0= 309.000000\nAt 1998- 309*(1+0.229)^1= 379.858644\nAt 1999- 309*(1+0.229)^2= 466.9663088\nAt 2000- 309*(1+0.229)^3= 574.0491549\nAt 2001- 309*(1+0.229)^4= 705.6878109\nAt 2002- 309*(1+0.229)^5= 867.5133169\nAt 2003- 309*(1+0.229)^6= 1066.448001\nAt 2004- 309*(1+0.229)^7= 1311.00159
930567
Stocks, after their IPO, can go up or down.  \n\nBe very careful. If you're putting money into something that you know nothing about, know little about the mechanics, don't know what will make the stock go up or down and/or can't afford to lose this money - then this is gambling.\n\nMy recommendation is to save your money, invest in prudent investments for your situation.  This doesn't necessarily mean that you can't take on risk for high returns - it just means that you need to be careful and should probably do more homework before blindly throwing your money around.  You work hard for your money, don't neglect it. Treat it with respect and it will treat you nicely.
585938
Decision Tree Analysis involves methodically mapping out all the options you have for a given decision, then applying the following 'expected value' formula to each option:\n\nexpected value  = probability x outcome\n\nFor instance, let's say I'm trying to decide whether to put $100 into the stock market or to put it under my mattress.  Let's also say there is a 60% chance that my investment will become $200, and a 40% chance that my investment will shrink to $10 (I just made these numbers up).  The expected value of putting my money in the stock market is:\n\n(60% * $200) + (40% * $10) = $124\n\nSince $124 is higher than the $100 that I would get by stuffing the money in my mattress, decision tree analysis would say I should put the money in the market.\n\nDecision Tree Analysis can get very complex very quickly when you think of all the options available to a given decision.  Good luck!
700271
I've done that with what I call 'loose change'.  Sometimes I've got a few dollars sitting around, obviously not going to make a lot of interest and not large enough for something substantial.  If some risky thing has been going down but I still feel it worth holding onto (its kinda fun when you sweat over a $90 stock moving a couple of bucks while a stock selling for less than a dime now goes for a buck or two, and yes, I've had that happen), then making an extra small trade can average down the value of your position.  When the stock starts to tick up for whatever reasons, you now have a lower break-even or profit point.  Again, it is only if you've got a few bucks left not doing anything and at Scottrade for $7 plus a half-point, it doesn't hurt much.  Of course, I also got a couple that are cluttering up my list because it will cost more to sell than they are worth today but that is part of the risk, right?