when comunism will fall in china will there be sectarian strife? like in yuguslavia, ussr and iraq?
406042
In China, we are more likely to observe a transitional process through a broad spectrum of social arrangements. This will likely move slowly enough to prevent the kind of strife we have observed elsewhere. Expect China to remain mostly socialized for a very long time.
366405
The Sino-American War will happen in the next 20 years. It will involve nuclear weapons. Invading China isn't feasible.  That's also a bad battle plan, because the longer we wait, the stronger China gets.
808641
I don't think that after the removal of the regime there would be an insurgency. North Korea is so poor that the society would just totally collapse after the present regime was removed. All the years of communist agriculture practises (look it up, some commies actually think plants will grow differently for them!) have denuded the soil in North Korea.  Most of the civilians would start moving towards the DMZ, Chinese border or any refugee camps that were provided. The country is not self-sufficent in food as it is; so without the goverment around to issue food-aid rations, the people would have to go where the food is. Any insurgents would be SOL without food. That's not to say the people would be in a celebatory mood post Kim Jong-ll, they would be struggling to survive just like during and after the first Korean war. \n\nThe real hazard post Kim Jong-Il would be potential conflict between Chinese troops and US+Korean troops. It's not as if the Chinese would sit idely by while US troops came up to the Yalu river. That's a given. I suppose it's possible that the US and China could work together on some sort of transition. However the Chinese are unlikely to let the south just take over the north, so the people of North Korea don't have any good options.
213815
It is too hard to tell right now, but that does seem to be a good guess at this point.  Their economy is growing at an insane rate and their population makes the US look like a small village.\n\nOne problem for China though is the unity of the people.  From what I have heard, many of the Chinese in rural areas and in certain sections of the country do not feel a strong attachment to the government, and some even want independence.  The repressive government is also not helping matters.  With such a large area and so many people it is very difficult to maintain unity.\n\nIt will be interesting to see what happens, but I hope if the future does belong to China that it will be accompanied by rational and democratic reforms and an overhaul of their human rights policies (or lack of).
761513
Dividing between the Sunni and Shia/Kurd will not work.  The majority of oil wealth is in the Shia and Kurd areas and the Sunni would not let themselves be cut out.  This has already been proposed (Federalist states for each of the three) and been rejected by the Sunni.\n\nI agree in general with your assessment of the situation and see no really workable solution since I do not believe that the Islamic religious leaders will ever allow any form of democracy to work.  I think we will eventually see another Islamic Theocracy in Iraq.
396093
Check out this site: http://dehai.org/conflict/
728933
As soon as US and Allies move out, the country will enter a full scale civil war. not only ill the Muslims be slaughtering each other like there is no tommorrow, The kurds in the north along with all the civilians who moved into the area will be ethicaly cleansed. \n\nFor US to move out would be totaly irresponsible. There is a good saying 'don;t start what you can't finish'. \n\nTo answer original question, fighting will only stop between factions when Iraqi governament and Army are powerful enough to keep order. Efforts must be intensified to requit and train impartial Iraqi military force.
398781
I don't support the Communist and their Dictator Hu. They have committed genocide on China's people for years. Look at their abortion laws and population control, that alone is genocide. It's the Republicans and their uncontrollable greed. Communist China is an atheist Country, and there are way to many things to list in here. It's a total travesty and embarrassment to the American People and our Democratic society. I want to know if this is what the Republicans have in mind for America to become a Communist Nation. I am not going for the Dictator thing now with George Bush.
888278
I think you got carried away a little when putting thi question to such an extent it is difficult to assess exactly what you are trying to say. I am British and I am proud to live in a country which has democratic elections and freedom of speech. On the whole it has a decent and fair minded attitude to others. If ths was endangered I would very much be in favour of defending our way of life. You seem to have a thing about the Chinese. At the moment they are too busy looking after their own affairs to worry too much about what is happening in the rest of the world. Bear in mind also that China is starting to encompass some of the Western world's trends such as private enterprise etc. There would be no gain in China causing a war on a global scale. When you refer to the 1930's and 40's I assume you are referring to the Second World War. This is different. Then there was an identifiable enemy. They formed an army and wore uniforms. You knew who you were fighting. Today the enemy is miuch more covert, subversion and cowardly. It will not come out identify itself and engage in combat. It infiltrates our lives and carries out its atrocities randomly and deviously. It is far more dangerous. However our way of life must and will be defended vigourously.
128807
Not for years.  The governments of too many surrounding countries have far too much to loose if Iraq becomes a stable democratic state so they will continue to fund and encourage the "insurgents".  However, the violence should lessen as the new government gets organized and the USA starts pulling out.
1132162
No one day it will happen, probably from war. Its just a matter of time. When? I couldnt tell you.
932066
Religious groups have been fighting for centuries. Now that Saddam is not there to cut their heads off if they misbehave I guess there will be civil war for at least 5 more years. Then some big dictator or religious fanatic will take charge.\n\nThey have lots of oil so someone will want to be in control besides G.W. Bush and the Christian Right.
706101
oh yes even taiwan have u.s help China will still win and u.s will lost more troop in iraq which mean more that 3000 will be kill. becuase China have the world larger amry.
433437
No, I foresee no real friendship bestween the U.S. and China. It is NOT in the cards. The friction between the U.S. and China will, in the future, get worse and China will take Taiwan also in the future and that will be the "straw that broke the camel's back".  Even an interpretationo of the bible says that the two countries will never be "friends".
817423
Soon...civil war in every sense of the term...is my belief. We can try to stabilize certain aspects but beyond that, they (Iraqi's) must deal with the fact that there is no more Saddam, and now is the fallout of the breaking down of secular agreements and accords inforced by Saddam....it was enevitable this was to be the moment we put boots in Iraq.
645534
I would say wait a while. The Kurds have a significant stake in the new Iraqi Parliament. If the return to civil rule goes well they will probably stay part of Iraq.\n\nIf Iraq dissolves into civil war with the Sunnis (who boycotted the elections) and the Shias then support the Kurds fight for autonomy. It might upset Turkey but it will also upset Iran - ultimately it is about the people not the state they are in.\n\nCountry borders are not static - with the collapse of the USSR, into separate provinces, the empires surrounding it are also fragmenting. Yugoslavia has split up and the process will continue. No matter how governments try and prevent it. Eritrea has become a success after it split off Ethiopia. If the Belgian Congo had been split up after Independence the genocides probably would not have happened.
697118
Good question.\n\nThe timing certainly seems to fit what we have become accustomed to, politically calculated.\n\nAs has been said above, I doubt that it will make any difference on its own. I am surprised that there has not (yet) been a major event, and I hope it stays that way. That would be so obvious that it might launch civil strife elsewhere than in Iraq and Afghanistan.