are you prepared for the H5n1 avian bird flu virus?
356028
No, i'm not.  I don't want to die!!!!!!
451441
Tough Question - My glib answer is that it won't happen because I am taking precautions for an outbreak. Evey time I take precautions for a disaster nothing happens;) \n\nWhy I am worried is because one case of human to human transmission has happened in Thailand. Also the flu has a week incubation period and during that time it can be spread.   \n\nSpanish flu killed between 50 & 100 million in 1918 and started off as an avian virus. Experts say that the Spanish flu virus had 12 mutations which made it adapt from just infecting birds to infecting pigs and humans.  The mass fowl cullings around the world seem to be preventing any adapted viruses from starting a human pandemic. However the virus has reached countries that don't have the infrastructure, because of bad government, war and poverty, to identify and contain H5N1 in birds. This means that if the adaption happens it could get a foothold in the human population and then start spreading. \n\nThe next point is what do you mean by "really become  contagious?" \n\nMost of the models of the spread of a pandemic are based on past infections. Most predictions are scientifically valid but they depend on a number of factors that can not be controlled. If avian flu mutates to human to human it may become less lethal and it may not be as contagious as it is now. The only way that the statistics will be proved depends on what the H5N1 virus does next.\n\nThe range of the numbers show just how difficult it is to get a clear idea of what may happen. Here are some numbers I crunched based on assumptions and a worldwide population of 6 billion. Note fatalities are based on no medical treatment. \n\n1.) Bird flu stays in birds and can only be transmitted through eating uncooked chicken, exposure to dead birds and drinking or eating things that have been infected.\n% of world population that gets sick 0.000040%\nNo. Sick 2,400\n% fatalities 63.64%\nNo. fatalities 1,527\n\n2.) Bird flu mutates and is really weakened in the mutation \n% of world population that gets sick 25%\nNo. Sick 1,500,000,000\n% fatalities 0.50% (half a percent)\nNo. fatalities 7,500,000\n\n3.) Bird flu mutates and is as virulent as the spanish flu of 1918 (WHO figures) \n% of world population that gets sick 50%\nNo. Sick 3,000,000,000\n% fatalities 5%\nNo. fatalities 150,000,000\n\nThese models become scarier and scarier the worse the plagues and disasters used as a base. All they really say is that if there is a pandemic people, without medical help, will die. They don't say that it will happen. (If you want to really scare yourself or someone else do the maths on bubonic plague 80% infected and 80% fatalities).  \n\nSo overall I'll say there is a chance of this avian fly being the next pandemic. The chance is not so terrifyingly likely that I am going to sell up and move to a defendable mountaintop and start shooting at strangers. However the chance is big enough that I have spent about $100 dollars on Tamiflu and food - just in case. \n\nThe only people who have told me with a 100% certainty that the pandemic is going to happen and everyone will die are people who are trying to sell me stuff to survive the coming pandemic. I think they are pretty biased.
90014
Yes, of cos! I would gratefully say Hello, God, Hows everything? What can I do for you? And I will also ask him to bring peace to the world and stop the bird flu from escallating into a pandemic! Amen.
91705
I live in a country where the bird flu has just hit. Thank god it's put under control - but a precautions list was released in the paper recently. Generally, you can still eat the chicken and its eggs (even if it is sick) - but they will have to be THOROUGHLY cooked. That means, no runny yolk from eggs, and no pink parts on the chicken. It has to be really, really cooked that the chicken is completely white, and bone marrows are burnt dark brown. No blood. No pink parts.\n\nThe virus (if present) in the chicken will die from the heat. So no worries there...\n\nAlso, when dealing with chickens - it's best to wear rubber disposable gloves and avoid contact with the chicken at all costs. Always scrub and wash the tools and place where you cut the chicken for preparation. Wear a mask if you want to..\n\nThe bird flu is here, and it just made cooking a whole lot harder. But the good news is: you can still eat at your favorite KFC... =P
120313
So far bird flu is not contagious from human to human.  So unless someone brings home a flock of chickens, I don't think you have much to worry about.
238804
It is my understanding that several US government agencies will be involved in handling the bird flu virus, contingent on how widespread it ultimately becomes. I don't believe FEMA is one of them. The most obvious choice is the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta. In any event, under the present administration, I wouldn't trust FEMA to handle the common cold.
146647
Where we are: Since 2004 some 170 humans have been infected with bird flu, with about 90 fatalities, mostly in Asia, according to the World Health Organization.\n\nBackground: With the flu spreading around the world, the virus has turned up in birds in Asia and Europe, and, most recently, Africa. So far, bird flu has only been passed from birds either to other birds or, in isolated cases, to humans. However, if the flu mutates into a strain that can pass from human to human, people will have no immunity and the flu will probably pass rapidly from person to person, creating a pandemic. Flu vaccines can only be made to protect against a particular virus, and, since the virus has yet to be passed from human to human, no vaccine can be developed.\n\nIn Asia, many people live with ducks and chickens in their homes and in their yards. Health and veterinary officials worldwide recently announced that a key way to stop the spread of the disease is to improve farming practices, segregating poultry from humans, and culling birds that have been infected with the deadly virus.\n\nWhat's next? When asked for predictions as to the seriousness of the pandemic, should one occur, experts have based their projections on a similar pandemic that occurred in 1918-1919. Up to a billion people fell ill, and nearly 100 million died worldwide. Translating to today's figures, they project that some 30-60 percent of the world's population could be infected by the virus, and over 300 million people worldwide could die. In the meantime, good hygiene remains the best prevention: keep hands well-washed, and avoid contact with people who have been infected with the virus.
503347
Yes i think there will be. As to how bad it will be - no-one really knows, but it is always best to prepare. To prepare, you should stay upto date with any flu shots, because it gives your body a dry run if you will. Also having a few extra tin goods wouldnt hurt, so you dont have to leave the house so often. But apart from that, there is not much you can do, but follow any extra instruction given to you by the authorities
528508
Okay, take a deep breath. You are correct. The bird flu may or may not mutate, there may or may not be a pandemic, but all families need to be prepared for emergency situations. You need to discuss Disaster Preparedness with your parents again. Your concern is legitimate, but becoming hysterical will not help your cause nor solve the problem. For starters, your family needs to have a three month supply of water, toiletries, food, and regular medications for every member of your household. You can telephone the local office of the American Red Cross, ask for Disaster Services, and they will mail you a list of information on how to prepare and what to buy. I hope we never have to face this situation, but we need to protect our families for any emergency. Good luck !
141270
Whatever ...\nBoth will now die due to the avian flu ..
509603
I believe that the Bird Flu will be the next scare here in the U.S.  Remember the West Nile Virus?  The virus carried infected mosquitoes from Africa and infected millions.  Now only one percent of the people infected needed serious medical attention just here in the United States.  And only one percent of that one percent lived.  The outcome of the illness was severe brain damage, long and short term memory loss, stroke(s), blindness, speech, and other major normal day use of your body.  Their lives were basically destroyed.  The government have not been very helpful on getting these people help either.  \nBut, I feel the government is preparing for the pandemic properly.  Better be safe than sorry.  As for the people out there saying it is all propaganda, I'd like to smack them right here and now.\nI...ME...MYSELF was infected with that damn mosquito that nobody believed was ever going to happen and the government was just talking...propaganda.  \nMy life is hell to say the least.  I fight everyday to regain my strength, my day to day life living.  I have lost so many people near and dear to me because I got sick.  \nSo all of you out there that thinks this is all propaganda, write on here after you become infected with the pandemic so you can tell all of us how you were wrong.  Don't ever think it can never happen to you, because it can. Do not be ignorant and listen to warnings.  I guess the mistake I made was not using insect repellant.  One mistake I will never make again.\nWhy would our government want to mislead us in such a tragic way?  Don't you think the war we are in now is tragic enough?\nQuit being fools and listen to all health bulletins when and if the pandemic comes close to the States.
242646
From your description I'd say it was run over. So no bird flu. \nBut it might be a good precaution if you just generally stayed away from all and sundry dead animals. Just to get in the habit. \nBy the way, so far people have only picked up bird flu from birds, not from any other animal despite the fact that other animals (e.g. cats) can get it. Don't worry too much.
1119867
Europe set to announce task force on bird flu\nEU - Europe will shortly unveil a task force for coordinating the continent's fight against bird flu, a leading European virologist said at a conference on H5N1 avian influenza.  Reuters - Thursday, June 29, 2006\nEconomic impact of bird flu hinges on panic - experts\nWASHINGTON - The severity of a global economic slowdown caused by a bird flu pandemic, estimated to slash 1 to 12 percent off world output, largely depends on how people and governments react, economists said on Wednesday. Bloomberg - Thursday, June 29, 2006\nSevere Flu Pandemic May Cost Up to $2 Trillion, World Bank Says\nA flu outbreak killing 70 million people worldwide may cause global economic losses of as much as $2 trillion, a World Bank official said. \nA slump in tourism, transportation and retail sales, as well as workplace absenteeism and lower productivity, may cause the world economy to shrink by 3.1 percent, said Milan Brahmbhatt, a lead adviser in the East Asia region, citing a study by the Washington-based World Bank. The study predicted a surge in corporate bankruptcies in companies with a high level of debt to equity, such as airlines.  Reuters - Thursday, June 29, 2006\nSingapore lifts ban on Malaysian poultry imports\nSINGAPORE - Singapore will lift a ban on imports of poultry and poultry products from neighbouring Malaysia after Malaysia declared that it is free from bird flu, officials said on Wednesday. \nAfter a three-month suspension, the Agri-Food and Veterinary Authority (AVA) said it will lift the poultry import ban on the northern states of Perak and Selangor with effect from June 30.  The China Post - Wednesday, June 28, 2006\nClosing borders would be last bird flu option, U.S. official says\nUS - Closing U.S. borders would be the last option to combat the spread of bird flu, a senior State Department official said Monday. \nIt is far down the list of remedies because it would be unlikely to decrease the number of cases, would interrupt essential services and disrupt lawful border crossings, said Paula J. Dobriansky, undersecretary of state for democracy and global affairs. Bloomberg - Wednesday, June 28, 2006\nBird Flu Fatalities Almost Triple, Spurring Need for Treatments\nBird flu fatalities have almost tripled this year as the lethal virus spread across Asia, Europe and Africa, prompting calls for increased supplies of medicines to fight the virus and any pandemic it might spawn.  AND - Tuesday, June 27, 2006\nFear of bird flu panics Zambians\nZAMBIA - The mysterious death of wild birds this week has panicked Zambians, fearing the arrival of avian influenza in Zambia long-recognised as vulnerable to the deadly H5N1 virus. \nPoultry Association of Zambia executive director Mathews Ngosa said a delay by the government in confirming whether Zambia had become the seventh African country to suffer an outbreak has "killed our industry as people are now avoiding eating chickens".  People's Daily Online - Tuesday, June 27, 2006\nBangladesh takes emergency program to prevent avian influenza\nBANGLADESH - Bangladeshi government has taken up an emergency program to prevent spreading of avian influenza, widely known as bird flu virus, in Bangladesh, private news agency UNB reported Monday.  Food Production Daily - Monday, June 26, 2006\nScientists issue caution against mass poultry vaccination\nEU - With confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza virus, scientists are now warning that mass vaccination of domestic poultry may hinder detection of the deadly H5N1 strain of the disease.  The Guardian - Sunday, June 25, 2006\nFirst cases found of avian flu caught from wild \nAZERBAIJAN - Four people have died after catching avian flu from infected swans, in the first confirmed cases of the disease being passed from wild birds, scientists have revealed.  Cidrap - Saturday, June 24, 2006\nH5N1 mutation allegedly showed human transmission in Indonesia\nINDONE
329889
There have been at least 10 influenza pandemics over the past three centuries (some just as deadly as 1918) and theoretical models have concluded that one will inevitably happen, sometime…eventually….in the future….at the some point.  There is absolutely no conclusive evidence as to when it will happen or if it will even happen in our lifetime.   \n\nRegardless if we are overdue for a major flu pandemic, this does not imply that the public should automatically “overreact” on media reports of the bird flu.  Those affected by the virus have all lived or worked in very close proximity to infected poultry. In almost all cases, domestic poultry were left to freely roam outdoors in close contact with wild aquatic birds and other wildlife.  But those in metropolitan cities are showing the greatest concern.  It is the continuous overreaction of the public which causes momentum effects in the pharmaceutical industry (and other industries for that matter).  The hype has been more about selling Tamiflu than anything else.  This is partly due to sensationalism in the media, but it's mostly due to a lack of education on effective prevention and treatment methodologies for specific diseases.  Tamiflu does absolutely nothing to cure the bird flu and never has.  It merely decreases symptoms and only under certain conditions.  Most credible scientists agree that a catastrophic pandemic such as those in the past are highly unlikely in developed countries.  This is 2006, and our methods of communication and science are light years from that time. The same technology that allows humans to travel so quickly around the globe also provides better medicine and better protection. So how in the world does anybody make the giant leap of faith that 103 deaths will translate to millions based on what we know about the H5N1 strain?    \n\nThe bird flu itself is a tragedy for the people of Asia and the livelihood of many bird handlers. Even more tragic is how an epidemic among birds has been used to orchestrate public panic and divert us from addressing other more pressing health issues. More than half a billion people suffer from malaria, nearly 10 million have tuberculosis, of which 2 million will die in the next year. Thirty million have died from HIV/AIDS and more than 40 million are infected. Yet bird flu seems to be the most pressing health concern we hear about on mainstream media.  It is a great irony that we spend more time worrying about what might be, rather than what is.  We do need to have a strong foundation for research, and there is no question that an elaborate worldwide infrastructure for epidemics must be in place before a pandemic.  I think understanding the evolutionary functions of mutating viruses is paramount in pandemic preparedness.  If the current hype helps in the building of these fundamental mechanisms, so be it.  What we DON’T need is a deceptive plot at the expense of public awareness to help inflate the stocks of a pharmaceutical company. If the current hype on Birdflu and Tamiflu is not a hoax, then I don’t know what is.
509996
No, it's all a load of ****. Bird flu affects birds, but there is no risk to humans, unless you're in a job with high degrees of exposure to the animals and their droppings. There's been 113 deaths world wide, but NONE of these cases were transmitted from person to person.
1040019
Curing this flu is no easy matter, avian influenza is so deadly that it is right behind anthrax on the bio-defense list, as a possible terrorist weapon. There are two ways to try to dodge the flu. One is to kill all infected birds. The other is to develop a vaccine before the disease shifts. Because this strain requires four times the usual vaccine dosage it is impossible to produce the 600 million doses our population needs. Current supplies could provide vaccine for 15 million people; that’s only 5% of our population. Accumulated data paints such a frightening pathogenic picture that WHO issued an urgent warning that a flu pandemic could affect billions of people worldwide. Billions because, unlike our annual flu outbreaks, everyone is vulnerable, regardless of age or health. To make matters worse,in Germany, on February 26, 2006, the virus demonstrated its adaptability when a domestic cat  was found dead from  avian influenza. A few days later, an infected stone marten was discovered. This shows us that the virus is changing. Last week it was believed that 6 members of an Indonesian family had all died of avian flu, which could indicate that the virus can now spread through human to human contagion. If a pandemic does strike we will immediately lose 40% of the country's work force. President Bush got less than half of the $7.1 billion he asked for to fight this flu. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist warned Americans that state and federal authorities are "woefully underprepared" to enforce quarantine provisions and distribute medicine, food, and other vital supplies in response to an avian flu pandemic. There isn’t medical equipment or staff enough to handle this outbreak. There are pitifully few ventilators and not enough coffins or cemeteries to bury the dead.  Perhaps as many as 1.7 million Amjericans  will die as the flu cycles through our country.Bush has said he will deploy the U.S. military to enforce a quarantine on areas where infection is found. Well, that’s just ridiculous. Where will the manpower come from? \nThere really isn’t a good solution to the problem. There isn’t enough vaccine; people are going to die. Remember birds distribute the virus through their fluids and feces so watch where you step and stay clear of ducks, they are carriers of the virus but are unaffected by it.  So the best bet is to stock up on water, canned foods and Tamiflu, stay in your own home, limit visitors severely, watch over your old folks and the infants and keep them as washed up as possible, wash your own hands often and pray. But be careful what you pray for … this flu might never be a problem ... it could be some other strain of man-killer flu entirely.
414099
The Bird Flu is the H5N1 flu virus. Unfortunately, you cannot tell the difference if you have the regular flu or the Bird Flu because their symptoms are quite the same, except that the Bird Flu results in death after a week or so. Be very careful, it's dangerous and is spreading accross the world at an alarming pace.