is there any chance for the bird flu to become a pandamic, in the near future? and where will it hits?
153836
It is not likely at this time.  In order for the present bird flu to cause a pandemic it must:\n\n1.) mutate to become a human virus not a bird virus\n2.) Have a vector to infect humans\n3.) Be virulent enough to cause disease in humans.\n\nCurrently, the bird flu virus is still just a bird flu virus.  Historically, a pandemic of the flu arrives 3 times every decade.  We are overdue for our pandemic, but medicine, and vaccinations and public health surveillance are better during these times than they ever have been.
619059
As of yesterday,Oprah did a special interview with a man from the CDC. \n\nHe readily admitted that we can only be prepared. There is only so much of Tamaflu to go around right now. He stated that it would first be given to healthcare workers so they would not be bringing it home to their families and also because we need heathcare workers in a crisis such as this could present.\n\nHe stated also that even if it isn't the bird flu...that something like the 1918 pandemic will happen sooner or later. It was interesting that he said that bodies were exhumed in Alaska from people who died from the flu of 1918. From the bodies remains they were able to (can't think of the word)  basically create the 1918 virus in a test tube. From this they were able to determine how it spread,and came to the conclusion that it passed from birds directly to people without any type of warning.\n\nPersonally I don't think we are prepared enough should a pandemic occur. But that is what having faith is for. You can't live each day of your life in fear. Life goes on. All we can do is be well informed and do our best to prevent the spread of the illness should something like this ever happen.
269756
As of now, several answers to your questions are unknown. While this disease has been in the news for quite a while, it is still a new disease, and we don't know much about it yet. Only time will tell what is going to happen, and what the effects of this disease are.\n\nHere is what is known about it:\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_flu
100103
Yes, the egg can get infected.  \n\nYes, it appears that it is safe to eat the egg if properly cooked.\n\nNo, it is not recommended.\n\nThe following exerpt comes from my source:\n\n"Can I become infected with the bird flu by consuming eggs or other poultry products from infected birds? \nThere is no evidence that anyone has been infected with the Asian bird flu or other bird flu virus by eating properly cooked eggs or other cooked poultry products derived from infected birds. Cooking food to 160 degrees Fahrenheit (71 degrees Celsius) will kill bird flu virus if it is present. Nearly all of the more than 100 human cases of the Asian bird flu that have been diagnosed recently in Asia have had direct contact with infected chickens, ducks, turkeys, or their environment. This suggests that close contact with infected birds has been the primary route of transmission for the Asian bird flu infections, rather than eating food derived from infected birds.\n\nAlthough strains of bird flu virus like the Asian bird flu that cause severe disease in poultry can result in the contamination of egg shells and the inside of the egg (the yolk and albumen or the egg white), hens with severe bird flu usually stop laying eggs, so few contaminated eggs are likely to be marketed. Furthermore, the U. S. government has taken steps to prevent infected birds or their products, including their eggs, from entering the U.S. food supply. "
859308
Yes, its been blown out of proportion by the media.  It really isnt such a big deal!  More people die from the common cold in a year than from bird flu
165898
Okay the first thing is that currently the brid flu is onyl contagoius from bird to human, not human to human. until the flu can be spread human to human we are okay. But that is what scientists fear. \n\nIs a bird flu pandemic imminent?\n\nShort answer: probably not. But there are many unknowns involved, making accurate prediction impossible.\n\nSooner or later, pandemic flu will happen. Flu pandemics sweep the globe from time to time as new flu bugs emerge. These bugs cause global epidemics -- pandemics -- because humans have little or no immunity to these viruses. Sometimes, as in the war-torn world of 1918, it's a terrible plague. Sometimes, as in 1957 and 1968, it's relatively mild.\n\nBird flu is still a bird disease. The H5N1 bird flu in Asia does not spread well from person to person. It's a leading contender to be the next pandemic flu bug because it has caused an unprecedented epidemic in poultry and wild birds across Asia and Eastern Europe. But nobody knows for sure whether this will be the flu that causes the next human pandemic.\n\nBird flu could become a human flu in two ways.\n\nIf a person were infected with a human flu and the bird flu at the same time, the two viruses could swap genes -- reassort -- and a human version of bird flu could emerge. This is what happened in the last two flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968.\n\nBird flu could also evolve into a form adapted to humans, as was the case in the 1918 flu pandemic. There's evidence the H5N1 bird flu virus has begun this process, but scientists say it isn't yet very far along. Nevertheless, a few H5N1 viruses isolated from humans have acquired some key 1918-like mutations.\n\nAt a World Health Organization news conference in May 2005, Klaus Stöhr, PhD, DVM, project leader for the WHO's Global Influenza Program, was asked whether a bird flu pandemic is imminent.\n\n"With this virus we have had very many surprises; we have had a very steep learning curve," Stöhr said. "We are seeing that it is changing very rapidly. We have also seen that it is not reassorting as everybody thought 18 months ago. So we do not know if a pandemic can occur next week or next year, or perhaps if another virus is going to cause a pandemic. We should simply continue with our pandemic preparedness."\n\nIs there a cure for bird flu?\n\nNo. There's no cure for any kind of flu. \n\nThe H5N1 bird flu bug has been particularly deadly for people unlucky enough to catch it from poultry. But if the bug learns to spread among humans, it almost certainly won't be as deadly as it is now, says Ira Longini, PhD, professor of biostatistics at Emory University's Rollins School of Public Health in Atlanta.\n\n"Avian H5N1 looks like a [very high] case fatality in humans. But this has never been true of any human strain," Longini told WebMD. "There has never been any human influenza virus that has behaved that way in recorded or even unrecorded history. The case fatality of even highly virulent flu strains are a couple of deaths per 10,000 people."
98319
Kill all affected birds, human in direct contact with those birds are prone to bird flu, last 3 years 92 people are dead from bird flu and all were bird handlers.\n\nThere is no harm in eating well cooked chicken and egg.\n\nIt has not yet spead from humam to human but danger is still there.
658904
H5N1 is not currently a threat, but the possibility of becoming a threat is very real.  If bird flu were to mutate to a form transmissable from human to human, this could be a potential disaster--similar to the influenza pandemic of 1918 that killed more people than WWI.  The 1918 flu traveled around the world and 20-40 million people died.  It was so bad, it shortened the average life expectancy by 10 years.\n\nRecent DNA studies have shown that this 1918 flu was a bird flu that mutated to infect humans.  It began in people who were in contact with poultry.  This is the reason for all the concern about H5N1--there is the potential for it to happen all over again.  It hasn't happened yet, but if we don't come up with some kind of vaccine, it may be only a matter of time.
47746
very concerned, think about chain reactions. lets say i have a infected chicken, and i skin it. i give the feathers to a pillow company and the rest to a processing company. lets say that a woman with three children buys the chicken, and she works at a school. think of all those people the workers and children pass by at work/school, and the people they love. that is serious.\n\nYes we should, unfortunately, we dont have antibodies for the avian flu. Yet.
468623
The highly pathogenic form of H5N1 avian influenza virus has not been found in wild birds in North America. \n\nIn 2005, a low pathogenic form of H5N1, which is not thought to pose a danger to poultry or humans, was found in wild ducks in Canada. There is a chance that infected wild birds from Asia could bring the highly pathogenic form of the virus with them during spring or fall migration to North America. \n\nThe US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Geological Survey (USGS), Alaska Department of Fish & Game, and public health agencies are working together to test thousands of waterfowl and shorebirds for the virus in Alaska, and field sampling is being integrated with surveillance programs throughout the United States and Canada.
203696
Bird flu was thought only to infect birds until the first human cases were seen in Hong Kong in 1997. \n\nHumans catch the disease through close contact with live infected birds. \n\nBirds excrete the virus in their faeces, which dry and become pulverised, and are then inhaled. \n\nSymptoms are similar to other types of flu - fever, malaise, sore throats and coughs. People can also develop conjunctivitis. \n\nResearchers are now concerned because scientists studying a case in Vietnam found the virus can affect all parts of the body, not just the lungs. \n\nThis could mean that many illnesses, and even deaths, thought to have been caused by something else, may have been due to the bird flu virus.
664336
It is moving from   country to country via waterfowl migration.  It is likely to arrive in the US during the next migration back in the spring of 2007.  People who raise poultry have been working on plans to keep their flocks inside poultry houses to avoid contact with wild birds.\nShould bird flu be detected in the bird population, the public will be advised of sanitary procedures, such as not handling dead birds and wiping shoes before entering a home.
461321
Yes...\n\nMy job requires looking at hundreds of avian influenza articles per week. It influences me as a form of torture.\n\nEventually, however, avian influenza will influence all of us. There is the possibility it will mutate into a form that infects upper respiratory tract cells, and thus spreads from person to person. The probability of that happening is undetermined. \n\nEven if that doesn't happen, avian influenza has had a profound affect upon the poultry industry of every country in which it has been found. The U.S. pountry industry (if you are in the U.S.) will be less affected than many other countries, because so many of our chicken's are raised indoors. Nevertheless, the U.S. pountry industry will have to undergo many regional culls. This will actually drive the price of poultry down, as we have seen in other countries, because people will be scared to buy chickens. The economic ripple effect will be felt by everyone, in one form or another.\n\nBut, we will survive. All chickens will be raised indoors, in time.\n\nThe U.S. might experience less regional outbreaks of avian influenza than other countries, because West Nile Virus has devastated local wild bird populations - meaning there is less of a vector for avian influenza to use. However, migratory bird populations, such as ducks, will still spread it to farms where chicken's and other poultry are exposed to the outdoors.
242646
From your description I'd say it was run over. So no bird flu. \nBut it might be a good precaution if you just generally stayed away from all and sundry dead animals. Just to get in the habit. \nBy the way, so far people have only picked up bird flu from birds, not from any other animal despite the fact that other animals (e.g. cats) can get it. Don't worry too much.
1032268
It's the latest viral mad bird infection.  Good luck.
339094
I am in the health care field and I would like to tell you that this is ridiculous.  The media is going around scaring people again.  The bird flu has less then a 3 percent chance of ever mutating into a human virus.  It may come here and be something like the west nile virus, killing a few elderly and young.  This reminds me of SARS again, a virus being overblown when in actuality it is almost harmless.  Wake up people and learn things for yourself instead of listening to whatever the tv says.
451441
Tough Question - My glib answer is that it won't happen because I am taking precautions for an outbreak. Evey time I take precautions for a disaster nothing happens;) \n\nWhy I am worried is because one case of human to human transmission has happened in Thailand. Also the flu has a week incubation period and during that time it can be spread.   \n\nSpanish flu killed between 50 & 100 million in 1918 and started off as an avian virus. Experts say that the Spanish flu virus had 12 mutations which made it adapt from just infecting birds to infecting pigs and humans.  The mass fowl cullings around the world seem to be preventing any adapted viruses from starting a human pandemic. However the virus has reached countries that don't have the infrastructure, because of bad government, war and poverty, to identify and contain H5N1 in birds. This means that if the adaption happens it could get a foothold in the human population and then start spreading. \n\nThe next point is what do you mean by "really become  contagious?" \n\nMost of the models of the spread of a pandemic are based on past infections. Most predictions are scientifically valid but they depend on a number of factors that can not be controlled. If avian flu mutates to human to human it may become less lethal and it may not be as contagious as it is now. The only way that the statistics will be proved depends on what the H5N1 virus does next.\n\nThe range of the numbers show just how difficult it is to get a clear idea of what may happen. Here are some numbers I crunched based on assumptions and a worldwide population of 6 billion. Note fatalities are based on no medical treatment. \n\n1.) Bird flu stays in birds and can only be transmitted through eating uncooked chicken, exposure to dead birds and drinking or eating things that have been infected.\n% of world population that gets sick 0.000040%\nNo. Sick 2,400\n% fatalities 63.64%\nNo. fatalities 1,527\n\n2.) Bird flu mutates and is really weakened in the mutation \n% of world population that gets sick 25%\nNo. Sick 1,500,000,000\n% fatalities 0.50% (half a percent)\nNo. fatalities 7,500,000\n\n3.) Bird flu mutates and is as virulent as the spanish flu of 1918 (WHO figures) \n% of world population that gets sick 50%\nNo. Sick 3,000,000,000\n% fatalities 5%\nNo. fatalities 150,000,000\n\nThese models become scarier and scarier the worse the plagues and disasters used as a base. All they really say is that if there is a pandemic people, without medical help, will die. They don't say that it will happen. (If you want to really scare yourself or someone else do the maths on bubonic plague 80% infected and 80% fatalities).  \n\nSo overall I'll say there is a chance of this avian fly being the next pandemic. The chance is not so terrifyingly likely that I am going to sell up and move to a defendable mountaintop and start shooting at strangers. However the chance is big enough that I have spent about $100 dollars on Tamiflu and food - just in case. \n\nThe only people who have told me with a 100% certainty that the pandemic is going to happen and everyone will die are people who are trying to sell me stuff to survive the coming pandemic. I think they are pretty biased.