How will H5N1 flu virus reshape the demographics of the planet?
144387
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1
269756
As of now, several answers to your questions are unknown. While this disease has been in the news for quite a while, it is still a new disease, and we don't know much about it yet. Only time will tell what is going to happen, and what the effects of this disease are.\n\nHere is what is known about it:\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_flu
252186
No way to tell how bad it would be if the virus changes enough to become readily contagious in humans, as most of the  'regular' flu viruses are. \n\nAvian flu viruses have some common characteristics  which allow them to infect birds, and the 1981 "Spanish flu" (which killed maybe 40 or more million worldwide. Enough has now been recovered frmm improperly prepared human bodies buried in the Arctic permafrost in 1918, to be certain the samples found must have a bird flu virus oringinally. 1918 was our species' (ie, humans) only known encounter with a human contagious avian flu. \n\nIf this one changes (no one knows quite how it would need to so) to become human infectious, then it'spossible we'll have a 1918 type epidemic. If we do, the death toll will be high as there are far more people on the planet, they are packed tightly together in many places, and there's a goodly bit of malnutrition, existing diseases, stres, warfare, etc that the death toll is likley to higher on a percentage basis than last time. \n\nNote VERY carefully: we do not know what will have to happen to the virus for it to become contagious in humans. Nor, if it does, whether it will retain the high mortality rate in such folks it currently has. And so most anything said about it is speculation. No matter who says it -- doctor, politician, civil service staff, vendors of stuff to help and some of which will be stuff that's illegal to bring into the country, etc. Avoid going along with anyone who's pushing some agenda (including sales and profit). \n\nNo final nor easy answer.
258778
Most of our info is very speculative as of now, as when it comes to future mutations of the bird flue, all we have are our fears. Really, we're worried about a recurrance of the Spanish Flue, which killed millions in the early twentieth century. As of now however, there has been only one case of bird flue transmitted between people, the rest has been from bird to poultry worker (total infected is around 100 people I believe). The big deal is, from the infected we've seen, it has a 50% mortality rate, and this is before it's even fully evolved to attack humans.\n\nHowever, a good deal of this is speculation, as it is easily possible that many more have been infected and fealt no adverse effects, or nothing more than a cold. All the cases we now know about were severe enough to warrant hospitalization, but what if there are many more that never had to go to the hospital, and so we never learned about them?\n\nBut, with 2 mutations left to go to be fully suited to attack humans, the avian flue (H1N1) it can't be long until we know for sure.\n\nTo prevent this, people are attempting to quarentine and kill ay infected birds nd poultry, but as you can imagine, this is easier said than done. We're also stocking up on Tamiflu, which some say is our best shot at an antiviral for fighting this thing.\n\nThe Spanish Flu ended when it burned itself out. It moved so quickly that it killed off the more suceptable humans, and the tougher ones became immune. It had nowhere left to go, and died off. If the avian flu is anything like it, the same will happen, though our use of antivirals may hamper this.\n\nThese pandemics are a natural part of population control and evolution. Who can say what we do to our species when we do all we can to fight it, and keep it from having an impact upon us?
73156
They just breed the virus, AFAIK.  Mutations pop up in every generation. In fact, as a matter of comparison, humans - on average - have about 60 mutations.
503848
Bird flu is a viral infection that infect avain species. At the moment it cannot be passed onto humans. But obviously the major concern is to poultry farmers who have alrge stocks of chickens. \n\nIt may also be able to mutate so that the virus can pass onto humans and it has a chance to do so the more birds it infects. So preventing the spread is the best thing we can do just now.
142970
No, I don't think so.  My understanding is you would have to be living in very close surroundings with poultry that have the virus, or in close contact with live birds.\n\nHowever, I guess we'll be discovering new stuff about bird flu for years to come.
602212
NO its not going to kill everybody if it keeps as it is at the moment.\nYou can get it just by contact with sick animals.\nBut this kind o virus can change behavior. \nThat was what happened in 1918 in the Spanish flu.\nSee in\nhttp://www.therealleiman.com/history.html\nIf that happens now with this virus \nWell , ....let us hope its not going to happens.
1103783
We have totally removed natural selection, a key requirement for a being to evolve.  If anything we will become less robust, less strong, less health, and less successful because there is no need for it.    \n\nGeography is also no longer a boundry, so there aren't any more isolated groups evolving independently.   With the spread of people across the word, the average person will look more and more like a mix of everyone else:  eg. most will have medium complexion, most will have brown hair.\n\nHowever, if your scenarion will allow for natural disasters or plagues, the end result is unforseeable.   Those who survive a period of plague will have better immune systems and generally more healthy.   Those who survive a disaster like a world-wide drought or flood will be those with the best survival instincts:  clever, resourceful, excellent social smarts, more fit and more efficient metabolism.
535981
Influenza is a real threat only when it crosses the species barrier i.e. can be transmitted from pigs to birds to humans.  So far this Avian flu has not crossed the species barrier to humans, staying within the confines of the bird community.  Once humans start displaying the symptoms of the Avian flu, then we will have something to worry about.  Best course of action: make sure your immune system is up to scratch and don't worry because itll take some time to mutate, unless we fight it with antibiotics which will make it mutate faster and then.........
1053223
I think that global warming as  it is describe doesn't exist, so no impact on diseases there.\nI do believe that CO2 is rising and will affect more people with lung problems, but nothing infectious.\n\nClimate change could lead to more infectious diseases as some countries will get colder weather and the immune system doesn't have what it takes yet to fight back flu or cold; some countries will get hotter, and, as well, people will not have the defences against viruses carried by mosquitoes an such.\n\nBut with time, Nature will find a way to re-balance itself.\nWill we give it the time to do so? That is an other question...
146647
Where we are: Since 2004 some 170 humans have been infected with bird flu, with about 90 fatalities, mostly in Asia, according to the World Health Organization.\n\nBackground: With the flu spreading around the world, the virus has turned up in birds in Asia and Europe, and, most recently, Africa. So far, bird flu has only been passed from birds either to other birds or, in isolated cases, to humans. However, if the flu mutates into a strain that can pass from human to human, people will have no immunity and the flu will probably pass rapidly from person to person, creating a pandemic. Flu vaccines can only be made to protect against a particular virus, and, since the virus has yet to be passed from human to human, no vaccine can be developed.\n\nIn Asia, many people live with ducks and chickens in their homes and in their yards. Health and veterinary officials worldwide recently announced that a key way to stop the spread of the disease is to improve farming practices, segregating poultry from humans, and culling birds that have been infected with the deadly virus.\n\nWhat's next? When asked for predictions as to the seriousness of the pandemic, should one occur, experts have based their projections on a similar pandemic that occurred in 1918-1919. Up to a billion people fell ill, and nearly 100 million died worldwide. Translating to today's figures, they project that some 30-60 percent of the world's population could be infected by the virus, and over 300 million people worldwide could die. In the meantime, good hygiene remains the best prevention: keep hands well-washed, and avoid contact with people who have been infected with the virus.
718190
After consulation with members of the health protection agency (UK), i disagree with the last guy to answer. The general consensus of opinion is that bird flu will mutate, and it is obly a matter of time. However, it may mutate and lose its virility; it may end up no more annoying than a cold. It may have even already mutated, but we just havent noticed it in the population...\n\nHow do i plan to prepare? the best advice is to take any flu jabs OFFERED, and have a few extra tin goods in the house, so you can stay inside longer than normal, but there is no need to panic buy.\n\nBird flu has currently got a death rate of 56%, which is very high for any disease, and avain flu's have a habit of mutating into a mammalian form, so we should be on our guard.
102622
I read that the only people that are really in danger of getting the bird flu, are people that handle chickens on a regular basis, i.e. those people that raise them, and are in close contact with them all the time.  I really don't think it will reach this side of the globe.\n\nOh sorry, I thought you said South America.
270557
H5N1 is an avian influenza virus subtype. The H5N1 flu is what is commonly meant when speaking of "bird flu" or "avian influenza". It is a viral disease that causes illness in many species including humans and is a pandemic threat. Experts believe it might mutate into a form that transmits easily from person to person. If such a mutation occurs, it might remain an H5N1 subtype or could shift subtypes as did H2N2 when it evolved into the Hong Kong Flu strain of H3N2.\n\nH5N1 is widespread in the bird population. It is very easy for birds to catch avian flu from each other. Most humans known to have become infected had a lot of physical contact with infected birds, or, rarely, an infected relative. While H5N1 is mutating into variations which infect species not previously known to carry the virus, not all of these variations can infect humans.\n\nA highly pathogenic variation of H5N1 is currently spreading across the world from areas where it is endemic. Migrating waterfowl (wild ducks, geese, and swans) carry H5N1, often without themselves becoming sick. [1][2] Avian flu is also spread through domestic poultry, both through movements of infected birds and poultry products, and the use of infected poultry manure as fertiliser or feed. Humans with H5N1 have typically caught it from chickens, which were in turn infected by other poultry or waterfowl.\n\nH5N1 is currently endemic in birds in southeast Asia and is threatening to become endemic in birds everywhere else. Tens of millions of birds have died of H5N1 influenza and hundreds of millions of birds have been slaughtered and disposed of to try to control the spread of the disease [2].\n\nNot all cases of human H5N1 infection are reported and consequently the exact mortality rate is unknown. Earlier historical flu pandemics, which were also believed to be of avian origin, had reportedly an average mortality rate of 2.5-5%. The current projected worst case scenario for a H5N1 pandemic is somewhere around 150 million human deaths directly due to H5N1 infection (or two to three percent of the world's human population). No one knows what the chances are for this worst case scenario.\n\n\nHow do people become infected with avian influenza viruses? \n\nMost cases of avian influenza infection in humans have resulted from direct or close contact with infected poultry (e.g., domesticated chicken, ducks, and turkeys) or surfaces contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected birds. The spread of avian influenza viruses from an ill person to another person has been reported very rarely, and transmission has not been observed to continue beyond one person. During an outbreak of avian influenza among poultry, there is a possible risk to people who have direct or close contact with infected birds or with surfaces that have been contaminated with secretions and excretions from infected birds.   \n\n\nWhat are the symptoms of avian influenza in humans?\n\nSymptoms of avian influenza in humans have ranged from typical human influenza-like symptoms (fever, cough, sore throat, and muscle aches) to eye infections, pneumonia, severe respiratory diseases (such as acute respiratory distress syndrome), and other severe and life-threatening complications. The symptoms of avian influenza may depend on which specific virus subtype and strain caused the infection.\n\nHow is avian influenza detected in humans? \nA laboratory test is needed to confirm avian influenza in humans. \n\nWhat are the implications of avian influenza to human health? \nTwo main risks for human health from avian influenza are 1) the risk of direct infection when the virus passes from the infected bird to humans, sometimes resulting in severe disease; and 2) the risk that the virus – if given enough opportunities – will change into a form that is highly infectious for humans and spreads easily from person to person. \n\nHow is avian influenza in humans treated? \nStudies done in laboratories sug
508935
It is very unlikely that a killer virus (at least of natural origin) will wipe out most of humanity. Few viruses have a mortality rate of greater than 50% which would, by definition, be required if it was going to kill off most of humanity. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 5%. Plague (a bacteria, not a virus)killed about 40% of Europeans in affected areas, but this was before antibiotics were invented. Epidemics with highly lethal viruses (such as ebola) tend to burn out pretty quickly.
38619
The bird flu is of the type H5N1.  This refers to the protein structure of the virus.  The virus can currently pass from bird to bird and from bird to human.  Bird to human spread is difficult.  Close contact with infected birds is needed, which is why it has been mainly poultry workers who have been infected.\n\nThere is a very high mortality rate in humans who contract H5N1.  However once the virus has infected a human it is unable to spread human to human and is therefore contained.  The worry is that the virus is able to mutate to allow human to human spread.  Humans have no natural immunity to H5N1 so if the virus does mutate there would be a Pandemic.\n\nAuthorities are  now trying to contain the virus to prevent the spread in bird  populations.  If they are successful the virus will be unable  to mutate and unnable to jump  the species barrier.\n\nGood web resources are the WHO and CDC websites and also the UK's Health Protection Agency.