how to prepare a forecast?
150191
First of all work out the current expenditure and income, also look at past patterns.\n\nThen work out, if the company increases such and such - how much will income rise, if they have to spend or invest - how much will expenses rise....\n\nThat's it - that's a forecast
80805
Not sure about forecast, but Kestrel makes some amazing anemometers (wind meters), some with barometers and altimeters built in.
237555
Load Forecasting, as is self evident, is simply forecasting the load that will be demanded at a particular time. let me draw you an analogy:\n\nSuppose you run a restaurant that serves fresh fish (sushi maybe) and crushed ice slushes, and to complicate things, you do not have  a freezer. you need to get your fish and ice from stores across town and cant store them for long. In what quantities would you buy your supplies to squeeze the maximum profit from your business?\n\nWhat you need is an accurate demand prediction system. If you know exactly that 20 people are going to order fish and 9 people slushes today at lunch, you can get the exact amount of supplies. you would do well if you had some ball park figures that are close, though not perfectly correct. You would do good to know factors like: today is extremely hot, you would sell more slushes. there was an article in the newspaper today about fish in the town being contaminated with mercury, sale today will be half of what it was today.\n\nI hope the analogy helps make the need for forecasting clear. the "no freezer" part is important because we have no effective way of storing excess elecrical power. If the power demand goes above rated online generation capacity at any given time, the grid becomes unstable and there is a danger of a brown out or even a black out. Keeping generation capacity online without demand is a waste of resources. It is ideal to keep the capacity slightly above current demand.\n\nNow imagine you had a mathematical model into which you can feed all your parameters and churn out the exact prediction of the demand.. that might actually be possible if the system was simple. like your one outlet restaurant. now imagine you run a chain of stores across the town, in neighbouring towns and neighbouring states too. Almost impossible to model mathematically.\n\nthis is where neural networks and fuzzy logic step in. you show a neural network how the demand had been varying over the lasf few years, while also showing it the variation in factors that you think influences the demand, and the network eventually "learns" the model and can predict with resonable accuracy what the demand might be, so I can be prepared by bringing in the required amounts of generation capacity online.\n\nhere is a website that talks about employing neural networks for load prediction\nhttp://ceaspub.eas.asu.edu/PowerZone/LoadForecast/Forecasting technics.htm\n\nHere are some relevant publications\nhttp://neuron-ai.tuke.sk/competition/reports/DaliborZivcak.pdf\nhttp://neuron-ai.tuke.sk/competition/reports/ZviBoger.pdf\nhttp://www.actapress.com/PDFViewer.aspx?paperId=19022\nhttp://www.imi.aau.dk/~msk/publications/LFANN-CIMCA2005.pdf\nhttp://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/ICHIS.2004.27\nhttp://www.ewh.ieee.org/ecc/r10/Tencon2003/Articles/500.pdf
120098
You will usually be more successful if you ignore the forcast.\n\nJust like the weatherman...they are usually vague and often completely wrong.
25951
okay there is something really cool called KXAN 36-WeatherBug and immediately when you turn on your computer, it will show the actual temperature in your town! (Click on it and see the 7-day forecast, weather pictures sent in by users, weather updates and all sorts of great xtras) not exactly sure what website it came from.\n\n2 be honest, we got it by *accidentally* breaking our hard drive and getting really cool extras, apparently because when your computer breaks, they have 2 make sure u stay a customer!:)
529759
First.... learn to spell METEOROLOGIST!  That's pretty important!
466525
Weather.com is the right website. I have used it to determine the weather on my wedding date. =)
1037278
Persistence, prediction is based on what is happening now. \nTrends, speed and direction of fronts are determined to predict where they will be in the future.\nClimatology, averages weather on this date in history to make predictions.\nAnalog, compares today's scenario and with similar scenarios in the past.
1151127
Meteorology is just a semi-educated guessing game.  The only accurate forecast is that there will be weather all day long!  For more info, my Rasta friend, you may care to join me and a few of my friends.... http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Rollin_Stoners/\n\nOnly God knows for sure!  Thank you, I send my blessings...... Johnnie sent me!  ;-)
484377
A forecaster uses very complex computer-generated models when forecasting the weather.  These models describe what will happen in the atmosphere (for instance, concerning winds, temperature, and humidity) over the coming hours or days.\n\nThe models are not perfect, partly because the research about the weather is far from finished, and partly because the physics in the atmosphere is so complicated that some approximations have to be made.\n\nBut the biggest problem is the fact that the computer models require observational in-data.  Information from weather satellites, weather radar, soundings, and weather observations are put into the computer models, and then the computer starts "calculating the weather into the future".  But there are not enough weather obserations and weather radars, especially not over the oceans.  If this would change, weather forecasts would improve considerably.
455956
Try this link: www.spanish-realty.co.uk/weather.htm
890357
I think you would make an excellent weatherman. That information is probably more informative, than anything they make up everyday. At least your information is guaranteed to be correct in one way or another.
666028
Weather and temperature data is extrapolated from given information on the real time data governing barometer, wind, current surrounding storm systems, time of year et. al. The forecast is derived from evaluation the given information against historical data to give you the future forecast. The most clear indication is in the percentages given for a chance of precipitation. The forecaster looks at the present data and measures it up against historical data with similar parameters and evaluates the percentage of time there was precipitation and relays that information to you in the form of a percent chance.
692802
Yes.  Check out the expert's forecast below...
352702
There are a number of methods.  To help you locate (i.e. a Google Search) which method is best for you, consider the following specific methods:\n\nARIMA\nLinear/Non-Linear/Log Linear Trending\nFirst Differencing\nWinters\n\nStep 1:  Plot your data ... always plot your data\nStep 2:  Is there a Seasonal Component ?  Example:  If it's car sales, well then probably ... if it's pounds of beef purchased each month, probably no.\nStep 3:  Is it linear or could it be made linear (i.e. if you plotted the natural log of the values, does that straighten out the pattern a bit ?\n\nTime series forecasting can be very interesting ... I suggest that you seek out someone with a little experience in this area that can help you out.  This is generally college level (first/second year undergrad) stuff, so it's not too difficult, but not something that you'd really want to just "learn on your own"\n\nI do this professionally and would be glad to help (don't worry, I won't charge you).  Step 1 for that would be to send me your data and we'll take a look at it.  My contact info is in my profile.
41449
There are several wonderful books on sales forecasting as well as very many resourceful websites.  I have cited a few in the source list.  \n\nAny forecasting begins with modeling using historical data.  You can use standard software packages for statistical modeling.  Noteworthy few include Forecastpro, ForecastX, Smart Software, McConnell Chase etc.  Once you have a decent model, you want to incorporate field intelligence on \n\n1.  In-season sales events\n2.  Competitor information\n3.  Promotional plans\n4.  Display and other special product events\n\nAlthough some of this information may happen close to the season, you want to plan for the seasonal build much earlier.  Since seasonal products have a short window to sell, most manufacturers limit the quantities and allocate special products to their customers based on the accuracy of the forecast.  Here you have to make the best judgement based on the COGS ratio of your product versus the seasonal uplift so you optimally overstock to achieve the extra seasonal sales.  \n\nGood luck.
768847
just to add a bit of information forecast is pronóstico and also prognosis and to foresee though in English they are used in different contexts in Mexico it is always used the word pronóstico unless using the word anticipar which means to anticipate in English