Likelyhood of Bird Flu mutating so it can be contracted from human to human?
114663
watch CNN. They say likely don't know when and how soon.  It was in the news today again.
535981
Influenza is a real threat only when it crosses the species barrier i.e. can be transmitted from pigs to birds to humans.  So far this Avian flu has not crossed the species barrier to humans, staying within the confines of the bird community.  Once humans start displaying the symptoms of the Avian flu, then we will have something to worry about.  Best course of action: make sure your immune system is up to scratch and don't worry because itll take some time to mutate, unless we fight it with antibiotics which will make it mutate faster and then.........
165898
Okay the first thing is that currently the brid flu is onyl contagoius from bird to human, not human to human. until the flu can be spread human to human we are okay. But that is what scientists fear. \n\nIs a bird flu pandemic imminent?\n\nShort answer: probably not. But there are many unknowns involved, making accurate prediction impossible.\n\nSooner or later, pandemic flu will happen. Flu pandemics sweep the globe from time to time as new flu bugs emerge. These bugs cause global epidemics -- pandemics -- because humans have little or no immunity to these viruses. Sometimes, as in the war-torn world of 1918, it's a terrible plague. Sometimes, as in 1957 and 1968, it's relatively mild.\n\nBird flu is still a bird disease. The H5N1 bird flu in Asia does not spread well from person to person. It's a leading contender to be the next pandemic flu bug because it has caused an unprecedented epidemic in poultry and wild birds across Asia and Eastern Europe. But nobody knows for sure whether this will be the flu that causes the next human pandemic.\n\nBird flu could become a human flu in two ways.\n\nIf a person were infected with a human flu and the bird flu at the same time, the two viruses could swap genes -- reassort -- and a human version of bird flu could emerge. This is what happened in the last two flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968.\n\nBird flu could also evolve into a form adapted to humans, as was the case in the 1918 flu pandemic. There's evidence the H5N1 bird flu virus has begun this process, but scientists say it isn't yet very far along. Nevertheless, a few H5N1 viruses isolated from humans have acquired some key 1918-like mutations.\n\nAt a World Health Organization news conference in May 2005, Klaus Stöhr, PhD, DVM, project leader for the WHO's Global Influenza Program, was asked whether a bird flu pandemic is imminent.\n\n"With this virus we have had very many surprises; we have had a very steep learning curve," Stöhr said. "We are seeing that it is changing very rapidly. We have also seen that it is not reassorting as everybody thought 18 months ago. So we do not know if a pandemic can occur next week or next year, or perhaps if another virus is going to cause a pandemic. We should simply continue with our pandemic preparedness."\n\nIs there a cure for bird flu?\n\nNo. There's no cure for any kind of flu. \n\nThe H5N1 bird flu bug has been particularly deadly for people unlucky enough to catch it from poultry. But if the bug learns to spread among humans, it almost certainly won't be as deadly as it is now, says Ira Longini, PhD, professor of biostatistics at Emory University's Rollins School of Public Health in Atlanta.\n\n"Avian H5N1 looks like a [very high] case fatality in humans. But this has never been true of any human strain," Longini told WebMD. "There has never been any human influenza virus that has behaved that way in recorded or even unrecorded history. The case fatality of even highly virulent flu strains are a couple of deaths per 10,000 people."
153836
It is not likely at this time.  In order for the present bird flu to cause a pandemic it must:\n\n1.) mutate to become a human virus not a bird virus\n2.) Have a vector to infect humans\n3.) Be virulent enough to cause disease in humans.\n\nCurrently, the bird flu virus is still just a bird flu virus.  Historically, a pandemic of the flu arrives 3 times every decade.  We are overdue for our pandemic, but medicine, and vaccinations and public health surveillance are better during these times than they ever have been.
120313
So far bird flu is not contagious from human to human.  So unless someone brings home a flock of chickens, I don't think you have much to worry about.
427919
I agree with the above post in that if any research is being done, then it's still in the works, so it hasn't been announced yet. And genetically altering things, especially something as complicated as poultry, is a lot harder than most people seem to think. I would seriously doubt that anyone is working on genetically altering an entire species just to raise resistance to this strain of avian influenza. Any mutation in the flu and the genetic alterations would probably end up useless.
301002
The reason we watch asian flus is b/c the farms there are set up w/ ponds where ducks rest and pigs drink. The duck/bird strains are more likely to mutate to the pig first than to a human- the catch is, a pig is actually very close to us as far as internal working go, and it is easier for a pig strain (origianlly from a bird) can then mutate to infect the farmers... and then spread to the general population. So the likelihood... good. Pray. Peace out.
217729
I think both also.\nI have to say though that there is a very real possibility that over the next few years this virus will mutate so that it can be spread from person to person.\nViruses generally adapt to their hosts and mutate as neede but this process takes time. Right now it is only spread from infected bird to human, if it mutates so that the person infected by the bird can also spread it to other humans we will have a huge problem. There is no cure right now and its fatality rate is quite high.
273774
People can have it and not even know it. The chances of dying from it are much more rare than what we think. \n\nit can cause drowsiness , terrible headaches and your basic flu like symptoms. It can last for up to two weeks or maybe even a month\n\nThe severeness of it depends on the age and health condition of the other person who has it. It cannot be transmitted from human to human. \n\nSee the website below it will give you more information\nGood luck
316579
No. Bird flu only kills birds, plus about 100 unfortunate humans to date.  But if it mutates into a form that can be transmitted from human-to-human, then a lot of people might get sick (10%? 20%? who knows).  The pandemic would last until practically every person on earth had been exposed to the virus.  That's what happened last time around, with the "Spanish Flu" epidemic of 1918-1919.
1124393
Start by reading the texts.  We did not descend from chimps.  We evolved from a common ancestor.\n\nWe share more DNA with Bonobo Chimps than we do with Neanderthal.\n\nLooking for predictions is interesting but not likely to be helpful.  First the rate of genetic mutation in DNA is known. \n\nSecond, there is no telling what evolutionary pressures will cause an expression of a gene to reflect a mutation ahead of the event.\n\nThird, given all of the mutagenic chemicals used in so many facets of production and general living, it is hard to make the prediction you ask for.\n\nConsider these: \n\nIn fewer than 70 years our ability to use penicillin and many of the early antibiotics is severely diminished.  in fact there are strains of bacteria that are completely resistant to some antibiotics (i.e: vancomycin resistant enterococus = VRE). As people improperly use antibiotics, new and hardier strains of bacteria emerge.\n\nThe thre most devistating epidemics in human history were variation of the inlfuenza.  The first is the Spanish Flu of 1918 which killed more people in 18 months than WWI, or (24 years of AIDS).  Here is what the WHO says about all three (Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, and Hong Kong Flu).\n\nPandemic influenza\n\nThree times in the last century, the influenza A viruses have undergone major genetic changes mainly in their H-component, resulting in global pandemics and large tolls in terms of both disease and deaths. The most infamous pandemic was “Spanish Flu” which affected large parts of the world population and is thought to have killed at least 40 million people in 1918-1919. More recently, two other influenza A pandemics occurred in 1957 (“Asian influenza”) and 1968 (“Hong Kong influenza”) and caused significant morbidity and mortality globally. In contrast to current influenza epidemics, these pandemics were associated with severe outcomes also among healthy younger persons, albeit not on such a dramatic scale as the “Spanish flu” where the death rate was highest among healthy young adults.\n\nMost recently, limited outbreaks of a new influenza subtype A(H5N1) directly transmitted from birds to humans have occurred in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China in 1997 and 2003.
446813
I know this wasn't really your question, but don't get too panicked about this.  There are other, more immediate threats to your health that you should worry about more than if they bird flue mutates.  You're more likely, at least in the immediate future to be run over by a car, for instance, so look both ways before you cross the street!\n\nIf you feel the need to stockpile food, this might be helpful for you psychologically.  Know, however, that they are working on a vaccination that may come in time.
106602
I am afraid that the virus that causes bird flu will mutate and become airborne. That would be like the black plague. However, as of now, there is no need to panic. Even when the disease enters the US, for as long as there is no human to human transfer, just fowl to human, there is no need to panic. Just like any virus, the disease is self-limiting. What we have to do to prevent it is to boost our immune system and keep our bodies healthy
608237
In humans, as of 19th April: 196 cases, 110 deaths\nOutbreaks in bird populations: well in the thousands-vietnam has at least 2000 known outbreaks.\n\ncheck out http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/world/2005/bird_flu/default.stm\n\nVery good website with accurate detail.
508171
Absolutely nil.\n\nIt is possible that birds will develop an immunity over several generations, but that is hardly near future.
142970
No, I don't think so.  My understanding is you would have to be living in very close surroundings with poultry that have the virus, or in close contact with live birds.\n\nHowever, I guess we'll be discovering new stuff about bird flu for years to come.
212166
To be perfectly honest, im not sure why it has spread now. However it is likely to be due to the amount of H5N1 in the bird population slowly increasing. It has been around in china since 1997, and I guess now, people are more vigulant in looking for it.\n\nIt is entirely possible that the virus has undergone genetic drift, making it easier to pass between birds, enabling it to spread faster in the wild bird populaton.\n\nThe rapid spread is something to be concerned about since it will mean a greater chance of the H5N1 infecting a mammalian cell, at the same time as a mammalian flu. If this happens, genetic shift can take place, which could allow the H5N1 to spread between humans.\n\nThe wider it is spread, the less chance we have of controlling any outbreak....\n\nHope that goes someway to answering your question