how can institutes predict when a disease like the bird flu hits at a given time at a given place?
109319
it is very difficult to predict such a phenomenon. but migratory pattern of birds plays a key factor
124991
See the website below from the CDC.GOV.  It'll explain the whole thing in detail. Not to get out of answering your question but its really a very lengthy explanation.  \n\nDocument Title:  CDC - Avian Influenza (Flu) | Questions and Answers About Avian Influenza (Bird Flu) and Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus
990732
maybe try the CDC web site
269756
As of now, several answers to your questions are unknown. While this disease has been in the news for quite a while, it is still a new disease, and we don't know much about it yet. Only time will tell what is going to happen, and what the effects of this disease are.\n\nHere is what is known about it:\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_flu
433231
From infection to symptoms, 2 to 17 days, typically 7 days.\nFrom symptoms to death, 3 to 13 days, commonly 3 to 6 days.\nThe fatality rate for all cases so far has been about 50%.\n\nClinical features 1. In many patients, the disease caused by the H5N1 virus follows an unusually aggressive clinical course, with rapid deterioration and high fatality. Like most emerging disease, H5N1 influenza in humans is poorly understood. Clinical data from cases in 1997 and the current outbreak are beginning to provide a picture of the clinical features of disease, but much remains to be learned. Moreover, the current picture could change given the propensity of this virus to mutate rapidly and unpredictably.\n\nThe incubation period for H5N1 avian influenza may be longer than that for normal seasonal influenza, which is around two to three days. Current data for H5N1 infection indicate an incubation period ranging from two to eight days and possibly as long as 17 days. However, the possibility of multiple exposure to the virus makes it difficult to define the incubation period precisely. WHO currently recommends that an incubation period of seven days be used for field investigations and the monitoring of patient contacts.\n\nInitial symptoms include a high fever, usually with a temperature higher than 38oC, and influenza-like symptoms. Diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, and bleeding from the nose and gums have also been reported as early symptoms in some patients. Watery diarrhoea without blood appears to be more common in H5N1 avian influenza than in normal seasonal influenza. The spectrum of clinical symptoms may, however, be broader, and not all confirmed patients have presented with respiratory symptoms. In two patients from southern Viet Nam, the clinical diagnosis was acute encephalitis; neither patient had respiratory symptoms at presentation. In another case, from Thailand, the patient presented with fever and diarrhoea, but no respiratory symptoms. All three patients had a recent history of direct exposure to infected poultry.\n\nOne feature seen in many patients is the development of manifestations in the lower respiratory tract early in the illness. Many patients have symptoms in the lower respiratory tract when they first seek treatment. On present evidence, difficulty in breathing develops around five days following the first symptoms. Respiratory distress, a hoarse voice, and a crackling sound when inhaling are commonly seen. Sputum production is variable and sometimes bloody. Most recently, blood-tinted respiratory secretions have been observed in Turkey. Almost all patients develop pneumonia. During the Hong Kong outbreak, all severely ill patients had primary viral pneumonia, which did not respond to antibiotics. Limited data on patients in the current outbreak indicate the presence of a primary viral pneumonia in H5N1, usually without microbiological evidence of bacterial supra-infection at presentation. Turkish clinicians have also reported pneumonia as a consistent feature in severe cases; as elsewhere, these patients did not respond to treatment with antibiotics.\n\nIn patients infected with the H5N1 virus, clinical deterioration is rapid. In Thailand, the time between onset of illness to the development of acute respiratory distress was around six days, with a range of four to 13 days. In severe cases in Turkey, clinicians have observed respiratory failure three to five days after symptom onset. Another common feature is multiorgan dysfunction. Common laboratory abnormalities, include leukopenia (mainly lymphopenia), mild-to-moderate thrombocytopenia, elevated aminotransferases, and with some instances of disseminated intravascular coagulation.
141270
Whatever ...\nBoth will now die due to the avian flu ..
1176207
Please see the webpage for more remarks on Avian influenza- situation in China
94099
The Burden of Disease study will tell you.\n\nLook thru these hits.
377928
look it up on the CDC website
1155222
The bird flu has not been spread outside Asia yet to my knowledge. It is possible from research studies of the Bird Flu that it could become airborne, spread through breathing, if that happens, a world panic would occur. Hopefully it doesn't and researchers will find a cure for it.
887252
A cold or a virus can give you the same symptoms.  The only way to know for sure if you have influenza is to go to your doctor.  He will take a swab (it will hurt, he is going about four inches into your nose with a Q-tip) and send it off to the lab.  If it is the flu, the treatment is pretty much the same as a cold unless you get worse or are in a high risk group.
203696
Bird flu was thought only to infect birds until the first human cases were seen in Hong Kong in 1997. \n\nHumans catch the disease through close contact with live infected birds. \n\nBirds excrete the virus in their faeces, which dry and become pulverised, and are then inhaled. \n\nSymptoms are similar to other types of flu - fever, malaise, sore throats and coughs. People can also develop conjunctivitis. \n\nResearchers are now concerned because scientists studying a case in Vietnam found the virus can affect all parts of the body, not just the lungs. \n\nThis could mean that many illnesses, and even deaths, thought to have been caused by something else, may have been due to the bird flu virus.
593378
I assume you're referring to the bird flu that's currently spreading through western europe. It's important that you remember that very few birds can carry the disease; however, one of the ways that the disease spreads to humans is by contact with the feathers. The most likely ways of a human contracting the virus, though, are constant contact with the faeces of birds, as well as regular contact with their beaks. Of course, since birds preen their feathers using their beaks, it is possible that the virus could survive for a short time on the feathers, and so could be passed onto humans. If you're in any doubt as to whether you may have contracted the disease, you should go to a doctor immediately. Bird flu usually manifests itself first in the form of a minor eye infection, but can spread through the body quickly depending on the strain.\n\nIn the UK, the deadly H5N1 strain has only been confirmed to date in a single dead swan, and there are no confirmed cases of it being passed on to humans in the UK.\n\nBreeds of birds you should be especially careful with are swans, geese and ducks, as they are particularly susceptible to it and may carry it for several weeks without showing any symptoms whatsoever. Also, as they are migratory birds the risk of them carrying it from another country are greatly increased.\n\nAll that said, I wouldn't be too concerned about it; as long as you're careful and you're not in regular physical contact with birds you should be alright.\n\nAlex
285043
I have heard stories of killer bees being a huge threat, a huge flu season for the last three years, so I'm a little skeptical about this bird flu.\n\nThat being said having an emergency plan for any contingency is ALWAYS a good thing.  The old Boy Scout motto of being alway prepared comes to mind
369646
The flu virus family is a big one. Some are characteristically bird flus, others are swine flus, others are human flus, ...\n\nThere's a considerable similarity amongst them (a family, right!)  and under some circumstances, a bird flu can swap bits with a pig flu or a human flu, producing a new variant. It's likely that this happens most often in SE Asia where duck ponds, people (including children) and pigs all live in very close quarters. This is probably the way the major flu pandemics (remember the Hong Kong flu?) in humans get started. \n\nUsually, bird flus don't bother people or pigs, and vice versa. But sometimes, there's enough of a crossover that a bird flu acquires the ability to infect people and spread easily. It happened in 1918, and that flu epidemic spread rapidly and killed something on the order of 40 or 50 million around the world in about 18 months. We know it was a bird type flu because the virus has been reconstructed in a research lab. These guys went looking for folks who'd died from that flu in the Arctic North and been buried in the permafrost. It took more than a decade, but it's recently become clear this flu, the 'Spanish flu', was a bird type flu. \n\nin the case of the current avian flu, it's not yet (if it ever will) acquired the ability to spread easily from human to human. It seems that you must be in close contact with infected birds to have much of a chance of catching it. But if you do, it's very dangerous. The mortality reat in the first few hundred reported cases was something like 50% and that's very very high. More recent cases in Europe seem to have a lower mortality rate, but that may primarily be an artifact of better care (eg, learning from prior cases). \n\nThere is little understanding of what changes would be required for this bird flu variant to become human infectious. There has been some speculation that it may be a few as two different gene changes. And perhaps the change(s) will never happen; no one has much of a real idea about the chances. And it's possible that, if it becomes infectious in humans, it will lose the lethality it currently has in humans. Or not, which is the scary case. \n\nTreatment for flu viruses is traditionally best via vaccine. However, since flu viruses change regularly and the vaccines are typically variant specific, it hasn't been possible to get it precisely right. Which variant will be the major issue in the coming flu season is hard to predict, but having guessed, it takes quite a while to produce the vaccine. It's a bit of a guess and isn't always gotten right. The avian flu is no different. \n\nA vaccine against the current variant would be pointless for humans, as it doesn't infect us very well. And if the virus changes to become infectious in humans, we don't really know how to develop a vaccine against a virus variant we haven't yet seen. And after we see it, it will take some months to produce the vaccine for it. \n\nWhat are the chances of drug treatment against a human infective variant of this avian flu? Not good, just as there aren't very good drugs against any virus infection. We have one or two drugs, of which Tamiflu is thought to be the best of a not very good lot. Governments have begun stockpiling it, against possible need. \n\n======\n\npossibilities\n\n1) The virus never acquires the ability to infect humans easily and to be highly contagious. If so, the current plague among birds will eventually burn itself out and there won't be much further issue. \n\n2) The virus will never acquire the ability to be highly contagious, but will learn to infect people much better than it can manage now and will retain its lethality. More people will die before the pandemic among birds finally burns out. Death toll might be in the thousands or hundreds of thousands, as compared with hundreds to date. it think this unlikely as the flu viruses have all had excellent c
921494
not many places actually reporting cases of flu yet. Probably normal cold virus- treatment is the same at this stage anyway.
8595
Yes. In 2003 there was a patient who was diagnosed with avian bird flu in New York.