id
string | market_slug
string | question
string | firstGroup
float64 | createdTime
int64 | closeTime
int64 | resolvedTime
int64 | resolution
string | resolutionProbability
float64 | volume
float64 | pred_category
string | pred_subcategory
string |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
tsEyUSE2SU
|
is-damascus-going-to-fall-before-va
|
Is Damascus going to fall before Valentine's day 2025?
| null | 1,733,609,036,002
| 1,733,699,811,031
| 1,733,699,811,031
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,024.966017
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
i1o5d5bh3c
|
daily-coinflip-qks9nxqyg0
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,727,842,428,383
| 1,728,014,340,000
| 1,728,015,946,807
|
YES
| 0.49
| 101,557.324258
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
d5Ohq8lP0P
|
will-joe-rogan-endorse-donald-trump
|
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump on or before election day?
| null | 1,729,880,996,105
| 1,730,774,832,214
| 1,730,774,832,214
|
YES
| 0.99
| 16,508.595502
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Lbwzzi1zxcAPlPsJ2Gs4
|
will-the-supreme-commander-of-the-s
|
Will the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces resign before his appointment expires in September 2024?
| null | 1,705,750,574,258
| 1,727,762,249,590
| 1,727,762,249,590
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,131.078169
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
5iiVOcNdmrGAK8iA6Nes
|
nfl-week-10-nov-10-2024-will-the-ta
|
NFL Week 10 (Nov 10 2024): Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) beat the San Francisco 49ers (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,216,625
| 1,731,291,827,503
| 1,731,291,827,503
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,034.198497
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
JRUrJThuQGAtbXSZQQQh
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-a5311e87941a
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Oklahoma?
| null | 1,670,815,348,510
| 1,731,292,611,329
| 1,731,292,611,329
|
NO
| 0.01
| 4,970.431899
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
5pyipvyvnr
|
will-23-and-me-be-delisted-on-novem
|
Will 23 and me be delisted on November 4th 2024
| null | 1,727,606,260,677
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,915,595,922
|
NO
| 0.040806
| 5,154.330199
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
q0o9O6xX0i7VnLj2X7sh
|
if-the-republican-nominee-wins-wisc
|
If the Republican nominee wins Wisconsin, will they win the presidency (2024)?
| null | 1,690,425,747,192
| 1,730,879,451,536
| 1,730,879,451,536
|
YES
| 0.935243
| 3,083.991243
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
r90iriz45e
|
will-barnier-still-be-prime-ministe
|
Will Barnier still be Prime Minister of France on October 15th 2024 ?
| null | 1,725,644,947,804
| 1,729,137,540,000
| 1,729,166,496,305
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,148.624332
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
V0mJaMjHS3b4HlNMquk5
|
nfl-week-6-oct-10-will-the-seattle
|
NFL Week 6 (Oct 10): Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers?
| null | 1,715,834,015,085
| 1,728,628,388,526
| 1,728,628,388,526
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,502.824811
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
16zjafa3qc
|
will-kamala-harris-win-at-least-one
|
Will Kamala Harris win at least one state won by Donald Trump in 2020?
| null | 1,723,074,041,052
| 1,730,882,519,449
| 1,730,882,519,449
|
NO
| 0.018258
| 123,997.206933
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
pqns7MPHejGwyegRR2rH
|
will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-6487fb4e4cb1
|
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield' at any point before 2025?
| null | 1,684,688,118,668
| 1,735,661,133,423
| 1,735,661,133,423
|
NO
| 0.010001
| 11,705.114827
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
tsggl9R6qR
|
2024-ncaaf-will-florida-beat-florid
|
2024 NCAAF 🏈 : Will Florida beat Florida State by 10+ points?
| null | 1,732,633,684,193
| 1,733,026,506,871
| 1,733,026,506,871
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,949.874371
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
txgdd5p8sk
|
will-homeland-security-secretary-al
|
Will Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas resign or step down before the election?
| null | 1,721,619,507,319
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,910,565,450
|
NO
| 0.01029
| 9,284.903016
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
04oaMNcx0pNYjKgF4GLI
|
on-the-first-anniversary-of-october
|
On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing?
| null | 1,711,430,908,466
| 1,728,330,738,543
| 1,728,330,738,543
|
YES
| 0.99
| 14,180.603311
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
KLC57yIaQ6Rj6La1rGyy
|
will-the-united-state-elect-its-fir
|
Will the United State elect it's first woman President in 2024
| null | 1,647,551,269,071
| 1,731,652,344,290
| 1,731,652,344,290
|
NO
| 0.01051
| 12,199.860294
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0fyaz0iu3j
|
will-the-margin-of-victory-in-wisco
|
Will the margin of victory in Wisconsin be smaller than the margin of victory in Pennsylvania?
| null | 1,727,172,309,472
| 1,734,191,995,395
| 1,734,191,995,395
|
YES
| 0.989999
| 34,145.42591
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
DMBSEFgbuV1iK3XOE5jV
|
will-automated-balls-and-strikes-ak
|
Will automated balls and strikes (aka "robo umps") feature in an MLB regular-season game in 2023 or 2024?
| null | 1,673,239,003,755
| 1,727,801,414,715
| 1,727,801,414,715
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,907.02365
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
APPNgpd69l
|
will-democrats-win-both-houses-of-c-IsRR0hqsPh
|
Will Democrats win both houses of Congress?
| null | 1,730,716,554,722
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,982,238,072
|
NO
| 0.010033
| 20,168.825251
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Cykjr8K5Q3X3gZ131Pyy
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-0f94d38b5734
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Oct 2024 surpass 600k views?
| null | 1,706,581,118,938
| 1,729,728,276,742
| 1,729,728,276,742
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,305.561459
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
vGDZ2AuSkfB66QQs7ZZD
|
will-a-general-european-unionmercos
|
Will a general European Union-Mercosur trade agreement be concluded before Dec, 31st 2024?
| null | 1,667,695,718,654
| 1,735,614,000,000
| 1,735,675,723,953
|
NO
| 0.02355
| 8,373.672991
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
noEl51h60reYovvRvMcr
|
will-us-border-control-detain-more-ca05f92fbe05
|
🇲🇽 🇺🇸 Will US Border Control detain more people trying to cross the US-Mexico border in 2024 than in 2023?
| null | 1,708,127,091,086
| 1,729,771,609,855
| 1,729,771,609,855
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,919.146662
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
3otauvhxxj
|
will-this-market-get-more-than-25-t-y0r55o4hjn
|
Will this market get more than 25 traders ?
| null | 1,726,732,917,380
| 1,727,251,592,703
| 1,727,251,592,703
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,388.283184
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
ofmyxo3obs
|
mlb-postseason-2024-108-nlds-game-3
|
MLB Postseason 2024 ⚾️ 10/8 NLDS Game 3 Phillies @ Mets: Will the Mets WIN this game?
| null | 1,728,392,857,018
| 1,728,432,332,207
| 1,728,432,332,207
|
YES
| 0.99
| 8,959.314704
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
JHAgROMgsbDtiuODKgqK
|
will-donald-trump-and-joe-biden-deb
|
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other twice before the 2024 US presidential election?
| null | 1,705,948,749,021
| 1,730,951,042,586
| 1,730,951,042,586
|
NO
| 0.01
| 51,777.888488
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
WihPXpdrcUUw2Wnfoydj
|
will-texas-experience-blackouts-thi-62c156e5f19e
|
Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer?
| null | 1,710,857,513,519
| 1,727,150,340,000
| 1,727,183,312,263
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,836.725884
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
5CZiYsBhA9BbdDWjKOTq
|
will-rfk-jr-be-polling-above-10-on
|
Will RFK Jr. be polling above 10% on October 1st, 2024?
| null | 1,710,139,814,305
| 1,727,927,940,000
| 1,728,227,823,628
|
NO
| 0.01
| 17,691.667417
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8iiUbhCZgMMzqjClcznl
|
will-final-fantasy-vii-rebirth-win
|
Will Final Fantasy VII Rebirth win Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards?
| null | 1,702,011,507,295
| 1,734,078,813,399
| 1,734,078,813,399
|
NO
| 0.01
| 12,791.864916
|
Gaming
|
Gaming
|
QHT6vBv2jdzqmzPUQC6S
|
will-mitch-mcconnell-stop-being-sen-165e82739d8b
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2026?
| null | 1,704,243,416,140
| 1,731,528,748,598
| 1,731,528,748,598
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,199.124929
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9CkjBE1gKPOxwzHM9ycJ
|
will-any-2020-red-statedistrict-fli
|
Will ANY 2020 red states/districts flip blue in 2024?
| null | 1,693,940,826,821
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,950,349,767
|
NO
| 0.15536
| 19,019.637214
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
rlojWRroLluATsjJlw9U
|
will-bidens-classified-documents-be-36990a4c0f07
|
Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten on Election Day?
| null | 1,679,947,217,434
| 1,730,782,740,000
| 1,730,838,431,950
|
YES
| 0.975323
| 5,102.00217
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
uh5lbdfapb
|
will-trump-get-to-50-on-manifold-by
|
Will Trump get to 50% on Manifold by Halloween?
| null | 1,727,360,174,033
| 1,727,361,363,724
| 1,727,361,363,724
|
YES
| 0.93
| 5,600
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
dr81iXBNm490Htz4Jdl8
|
will-the-2024-democratic-presidenti
|
Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential nominee remain the nominee through Election Day?
| null | 1,698,510,128,995
| 1,730,851,044,780
| 1,730,851,044,780
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,883.1522
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qGmTYRomdtcomkDrsTZ0
|
will-moana-2-gross-more-than-moana
|
Will Moana 2 gross more than Moana at the global box office?
| null | 1,707,401,855,019
| 1,734,456,654,361
| 1,734,456,654,361
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,925.322819
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
u3hlsz7ypw
|
will-ivanka-trump-release-a-tellall
|
Will Ivanka Trump release a tell-all book about Donald Trump before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
| null | 1,726,663,064,906
| 1,730,825,827,586
| 1,730,825,827,586
|
NO
| 0.020091
| 8,352.680171
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
mb97C4YbxsGwuFMbjCLv
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-1826601d29ee
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Nevada?
| null | 1,670,815,113,111
| 1,731,292,853,817
| 1,731,292,853,817
|
NO
| 0.009998
| 18,613.158752
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
gLzaJZwqEW0ng7ZN2BvO
|
will-the-winner-of-the-electoral-co
|
Will the winner of the electoral college also win the popular vote in 2024?
| null | 1,675,037,318,193
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,994,063,509
|
YES
| 0.99
| 32,508.389044
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
yUAlSnC69L
|
will-tua-tagovailoa-be-eating-turdu
|
Will Tua Tagovailoa be eating Turducken after the Thanksgiving game?
| null | 1,731,607,306,038
| 1,732,996,330,642
| 1,732,996,330,642
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,949.874371
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
f0CpyZL0DM6x8bjaNLv6
|
will-togashi-yoshihiro-publish-a-ne
|
Will Togashi Yoshihiro publish a new chapter of Hunter × Hunter in 2024?
| null | 1,701,418,230,327
| 1,729,094,606,204
| 1,729,094,606,204
|
YES
| 0.88
| 1,832.743121
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
7FovrU9JFxjddGnHhmy4
|
will-an-eagx-conference-be-held-in
|
Will an EAG(x) conference be held in India in 2024?
| null | 1,693,555,171,430
| 1,731,654,130,362
| 1,731,654,130,362
|
YES
| 0.986989
| 15,505.559976
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
Fia6LI7xt0HptiNAPfI9
|
will-pyusd-depeg-anytime-before-202
|
Will the PYUSD stablecoin de-peg anytime before 2025?
| null | 1,691,429,677,109
| 1,735,581,453,359
| 1,735,581,453,359
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,504.584465
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
VsfUBvN2bjrNH00vaDPH
|
will-sora-be-released-to-the-genera
|
Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies
| null | 1,711,752,983,269
| 1,733,848,862,852
| 1,733,848,862,852
|
YES
| 0.991641
| 15,992.62733
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
IbLIlK9dPNppkwcuEQBG
|
will-mother-nature-influence-the-us
|
Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024
| null | 1,705,016,313,690
| 1,731,398,340,000
| 1,733,195,612,665
|
NO
| 0.057522
| 2,945.309719
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
uxWRCCL04SF1BNWTMrqC
|
picture-of-2024-poty-potus-before-e
|
Picture of 2024 POTY & POTUS before EOY?
| null | 1,710,288,706,469
| 1,734,076,818,206
| 1,734,076,818,206
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,723.034353
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
mOgPxn5dYQzZOxOMdIp7
|
will-a-federal-judge-rule-trump-ine
|
Will a federal judge rule Trump ineligible to serve as president by Election Day?
| null | 1,692,759,992,794
| 1,730,824,648,956
| 1,730,824,648,956
|
NO
| 0.011321
| 11,253.871631
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
8tc55q9qhi
|
will-manifold-not-throw-away-my-sea
|
Will Manifold preserve my search filter state when hitting "back", by the election?
| null | 1,726,845,100,093
| 1,730,928,052,270
| 1,730,928,052,270
|
NO
| 0.044202
| 4,699.999369
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
WKTLPMssBgPUzzmFsaRP
|
will-yuki-tsunoda-score-higher-than
|
Will Yuki Tsunoda score higher than Daniel Ricciardo in the 2024 Formula 1 Driver World Championship?
| null | 1,701,354,569,322
| 1,733,785,140,000
| 1,735,280,655,894
|
YES
| 0.99
| 15,253.600308
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
15e9056kwl
|
will-cnn-call-the-2024-us-president
|
Will CNN call the 2024 US presidential election by midnight Pacific time on Nov 5th 2024?
| null | 1,721,614,857,075
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,730,979,581,319
|
NO
| 0.023458
| 9,666.546345
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
QeGlTrrcF8x0Kp3j17Fi
|
on-election-day-2024-will-george-sa
|
On election day 2024, will George Santos be more relevant than Kevin McCarthy?
| null | 1,701,883,968,027
| 1,730,768,317,468
| 1,730,768,317,468
|
YES
| 0.296991
| 1,202.56101
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
kfdddjhjn0
|
metaculus-will-a-us-vice-presidenti
|
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
| null | 1,723,214,089,781
| 1,727,794,284,592
| 1,727,794,284,592
|
NO
| null | 23,189.677156
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
UegAeS9J0OWtxIbXv72Y
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-4b17ed21ffee
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Hawaii?
| null | 1,670,814,560,148
| 1,730,912,507,961
| 1,730,912,507,961
|
YES
| 0.978574
| 1,138.7274
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8ec09lawcnha5dwpftEq
|
will-the-falcon-9-family-of-rockets
|
Will the Falcon 9 family of rockets launch to orbit (successfully) more times in 2024 than in 2023?
| null | 1,702,688,374,333
| 1,730,868,448,232
| 1,730,868,448,232
|
YES
| 0.989328
| 2,611.433534
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
nzdg1ci0dq
|
will-the-super-model-have-over-1000
|
Will The Super Model have over 1,000 subscribers by election day?
| null | 1,729,094,530,426
| 1,730,863,551,282
| 1,730,863,551,282
|
NO
| 0.035311
| 2,393,458.514211
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
MTZzOYn3t7wRjYNHfqym
|
will-yuki-tsunoda-finish-the-2024-f
|
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points than Daniel Ricciardo?
| null | 1,708,318,106,469
| 1,734,235,314,811
| 1,734,235,314,811
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,513.130681
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
ru1dz7jdsf
|
will-trump-pass-harris-on-manifold
|
Will Trump pass Harris on Manifold [>=1%, 1 day avg]
| null | 1,724,616,838,841
| 1,729,098,500,087
| 1,729,098,500,087
|
YES
| 0.82
| 12,579.556379
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
Ygr2cbZ7FpHKbHGaGUyB
|
will-bitcoin-btc-increase-by-over-6-21f807a78510
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) increase by over 6% on any day in Oct 2024?
| null | 1,706,627,465,083
| 1,730,433,596,395
| 1,730,572,511,323
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,941.968638
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
DolPfOQU4UvUBRA3Vqrd
|
will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-40683c97a10c
|
Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in Maryland?
| null | 1,670,814,888,037
| 1,730,912,522,983
| 1,730,912,522,983
|
YES
| 0.97914
| 1,208.804763
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
FxxDkUwWX7VsLPBrGyNQ
|
will-a-republican-win-wisconsin-for
|
Will a Republican win Wisconsin for President by 2050?
| null | 1,681,959,535,526
| 1,731,356,541,804
| 1,731,356,541,804
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,128.911879
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2wu07wyxvl
|
-shortfuse-1-in-3-odds-zko7jw2hbq
|
🧨 Short-fuse 1 in 3 odds
| null | 1,726,768,380,184
| 1,726,782,778,466
| 1,726,782,866,175
|
NO
| null | 1,115.918514
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
eFYcbT7qxyyhBw9DCnAM
|
will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-88944dfd90a7
|
Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' have outsold 'Breath of the Wild' at any point before 2025?
| null | 1,684,687,729,659
| 1,735,661,558,873
| 1,735,661,558,873
|
NO
| 0.010001
| 8,895.258236
|
Gaming
|
video games
|
7VmP5Rqt4hN5gyMaXYXQ
|
kalshi-will-joe-manchin-leave-senat
|
[Kalshi] Will Joe Manchin have left Senate Democratic leadership on November 6th 2024?
| null | 1,699,371,959,876
| 1,730,991,600,000
| 1,731,259,483,489
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,178.375388
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tb0vvhqffv
|
will-sonoma-county-california-ban-f
|
Will Sonoma County, California, ban factory farming this November?
| null | 1,721,851,608,074
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,731,109,676,484
|
NO
| 0.263185
| 7,517
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
6zIG2DZXQ2TjQog94pCd
|
will-indiana-vote-the-same-party-fo
|
Will Indiana vote the same party for Senate and president in 2024?
| null | 1,686,435,491,585
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,731,555,123,626
|
YES
| 0.976234
| 1,948.945964
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1TG18jtaorMvsw5uloTF
|
subsidized-will-someone-other-than
|
[Subsidized] Will someone other than Biden or Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election?
| null | 1,708,189,529,086
| 1,730,893,833,264
| 1,730,893,845,162
|
NO
| 0.042711
| 10,613.38674
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
l0piwwTckZ9qqX07Y9o2
|
nfl-week-4-sep-29-will-the-baltimor
|
NFL Week 4 (Sep 29): Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills?
| null | 1,715,833,681,893
| 1,727,702,917,749
| 1,727,702,917,749
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,023.948016
|
Sports
|
Team Sports
|
f6hys44h28
|
will-there-be-a-formal-military-cou
|
Will there be a formal military coup d'etat / takeover in Pakistan in 2024?
| null | 1,721,085,569,240
| 1,735,671,540,000
| 1,735,671,819,224
|
NO
| 0.061465
| 2,991.440987
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
uj3hqoioir
|
will-there-be-a-5th-starship-launch
|
Will there be a 5th Starship launch on or before October 15?
| null | 1,728,399,018,830
| 1,728,823,249,196
| 1,728,823,249,196
|
YES
| 0.99
| 18,245.545727
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
wzl5sb9tda
|
was-hassan-nasrallah-killed-today-9
|
Was Hassan Nasrallah killed today (9/27/24)?
| null | 1,727,460,167,307
| 1,727,527,293,802
| 1,727,527,293,802
|
YES
| 0.99
| 21,543.123487
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
dq80oqh9j9
|
will-october-2024-be-the-hottest-oc-r5tbjnvvh4
|
Will October 2024 be the hottest October on record? (resolves according to GIStemp data)
| null | 1,726,244,664,299
| 1,731,745,040,051
| 1,731,745,040,051
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,396.094385
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
0ORddyk7ZZ0A46KYmHA3
|
the-factorio-expansion-will-include-f687443572ed
|
The Factorio expansion will include something like this "quality" mechanic
| null | 1,696,025,288,809
| 1,733,534,240,735
| 1,733,534,240,735
|
YES
| 0.989218
| 1,651.932512
|
Technology
|
Gaming
|
0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl
|
will-the-israel-invade-lebanon-by-t
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,705,152,989,586
| 1,727,734,219,849
| 1,727,766,024,539
|
YES
| 0.97
| 491,675.572554
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
LUN69czcz8
|
-world-series-game-1-yankees-dodger
|
⚾️ World Series Game 1 Yankees @ Dodgers: Will there be a run scored in the 1st inning?
| null | 1,729,719,420,237
| 1,729,902,453,888
| 1,729,902,453,888
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,491.106089
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
1c1m6tOXDgnAdYwzhSfB
|
will-kyrsten-sinema-caucus-with-the
|
Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on November 1, 2024?
| null | 1,670,597,056,879
| 1,730,505,540,000
| 1,730,511,242,543
|
YES
| 0.99
| 11,056.541959
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
q30twpanyy
|
will-delegate-ibarra-speak-from-the
|
Will Delegate Ibarra speak from the stand at Valia Wain's trial
| null | 1,728,450,525,093
| 1,728,712,975,254
| 1,728,712,975,254
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,087.045636
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
JUk55uj1baQrQv7IUXNd
|
will-russia-host-the-brics-summit-i
|
Will Russia host the BRICS Summit in 2024?
| null | 1,693,029,103,443
| 1,729,770,847,181
| 1,729,770,847,181
|
YES
| 0.99
| 9,895.998554
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
6co59nkant
|
will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-88qfsqp8p8
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024?
| null | 1,719,030,559,160
| 1,730,409,503,518
| 1,730,409,503,518
|
NO
| 0.01
| 14,723.012593
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
xt1Oj1NyjTasuMcycohb
|
will-i-leave-manifold-if-i-lose-the
|
Will I leave Manifold if I lose the 'Apple Vision Pro Prediction Market'?
| null | 1,713,471,988,241
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,687,961,034
|
NO
| 0.022896
| 1,078.732334
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
d4qpeznlow
|
daily-coinflip-dlhynlse9u
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,728,713,789,762
| 1,728,878,340,000
| 1,728,879,308,171
|
NO
| 0.5
| 13,216.37651
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
eZlWpps8rfw3Sq8BMUoe
|
will-elon-be-revealed-to-be-funding
|
Will Elon be revealed to be funding some of the larger anon/troll accounts on X during election season?
| null | 1,706,426,326,570
| 1,730,926,568,098
| 1,730,926,568,098
|
NO
| 0.044632
| 1,569.601549
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
0nlYTzXipsZMfMqq5U4D
|
will-there-be-51-or-more-us-states
|
Will there be 51 or more U.S. states by the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,662,095,431,063
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,906,788,207
|
NO
| 0.010396
| 5,866.372426
|
Politics
|
Government Structure
|
6i7v7PcXGKp7LonbsKNs
|
will-saudi-arabia-king-salman-live
|
Will Saudi Arabia king Salman live in the end of 2024?
| null | 1,716,183,946,694
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,682,629,867
|
YES
| 0.981296
| 7,910.38188
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
fpMBqkzve1Ht6fbQGdlL
|
will-the-winner-of-the-2024-preside-85755b10e865
|
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Ohio?
| null | 1,690,200,981,036
| 1,730,950,514,159
| 1,730,950,514,159
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,514.375765
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
9h89E9gNL2
|
bitcoin-above-70k-on-nov-6
|
Bitcoin above 70K on Nov 6?
| null | 1,730,251,836,370
| 1,730,880,577,428
| 1,730,880,577,428
|
YES
| 0.945556
| 8,230.359426
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
x5dpidirk7
|
will-california-voters-pass-the-dru
|
Will California voters pass Proposition 36 — Drug and Theft Crime Penalties and Treatment-Mandated Felonies Initiative?
| null | 1,718,592,890,347
| 1,730,966,340,000
| 1,731,861,778,444
|
YES
| 0.989327
| 10,038.52374
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
TNq46o4TeqK96Q5et4So
|
will-the-amount-of-hate-crimes-in-t
|
Will the amount of hate crimes in the U.S. go up in 2023?
| null | 1,698,808,796,328
| 1,727,145,771,632
| 1,727,145,771,632
|
YES
| 0.96
| 3,410.193307
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
fROcrXsy1QDTvpz6Ll4l
|
will-global-total-co2-emissions-be
|
Will global total CO2 emissions be below 40 billion tons in 2023 as estimated by Our World in Data?
| null | 1,671,465,302,207
| 1,732,340,410,576
| 1,732,340,410,576
|
NO
| 0.009935
| 10,640.907591
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
etnj6gvyo2
|
will-there-be-another-serious-assas-2p8np9t2iy
|
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump?
| null | 1,726,435,284,876
| 1,730,847,540,000
| 1,730,849,866,935
|
NO
| 0.019906
| 178,437.959027
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
vhLAue2Uh3WllvUDhWW3
|
nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-buff
|
NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Buffalo Bills (home) beat the Miami Dolphins (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,172,328
| 1,730,829,600,000
| 1,731,291,738,783
|
YES
| 0.987429
| 1,043.561284
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
2q5ggndzfg
|
does-manifold-think-the-sweepstakes
|
Does Manifold think the sweepstakes are a good idea?
| null | 1,726,658,642,518
| 1,729,137,540,000
| 1,729,162,217,020
|
YES
| 0.95
| 4,372.755375
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
RIgPLdU6h9
|
will-deepseek-release-a-deepseek-v3
|
Will DeepSeek release a DeepSeek V3 model by the end of Q1 2025
| null | 1,733,923,231,727
| 1,735,191,610,387
| 1,735,191,610,387
|
YES
| 0.939162
| 2,929
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
40cOlfbyzDaxMvlwIXP0
|
will-chatgpt-get-the-monty-from-hel
|
Will ChatGPT get the "Monty from Hell" problem correct on Dec. 1, 2024?
| null | 1,701,562,887,145
| 1,733,118,024,214
| 1,733,118,024,214
|
YES
| 0.877847
| 1,389.977682
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
AuVRc8mAIU68fbiAj31m
|
will-my-coolfold-financial-portfoli
|
Will the CoolFold Financial Portfolio outperform the S&P 500 over the next 6 months?
| null | 1,714,242,768,733
| 1,730,438,355,023
| 1,730,438,355,023
|
NO
| 0.018925
| 10,951.914799
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
GI821GQbmm0iRFkTT6NQ
|
will-costcos-in-us-further-devalue-ab22f774fa11
|
Will Costcos in US further devalue their hot dog and soda combo before the end of 2024?
| null | 1,683,566,008,823
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,686,439,324
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,616.972643
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
q2QSpPOllh
|
will-i-be-demoted-to-platinum-this-uU56hnZqgS
|
Will I be demoted to Platinum this month?
| null | 1,730,906,133,250
| 1,733,177,982,330
| 1,733,177,982,330
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,241.566889
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
3Eu2EULeucc99X2lOxAZ
|
matthew-yglesias-2024-predictions-f
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
| null | 1,704,256,491,993
| 1,726,776,732,646
| 1,726,776,732,646
|
YES
| 0.99
| 33,591.651047
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
ngM2g9vmyXALypDDj6lF
|
will-donald-trump-win-the-popular-v
|
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote?
| null | 1,710,404,092,429
| 1,731,083,507,298
| 1,731,083,507,298
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,884.423373
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
|
will-russia-unilaterally-reconstitu
|
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
| null | 1,717,099,130,833
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,687,537,697
|
NO
| 0.026909
| 5,905.011333
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ioweevjcjw
|
will-the-east-coast-usa-port-strike
|
Will the east coast USA port strike result in substantial additional restrictions on automation?
| null | 1,727,783,828,566
| 1,728,213,634,360
| 1,728,213,634,360
|
NO
| 0.01
| 11,011.550061
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
pjzg0pzivv
|
will-jd-vance-be-a-guest-on-the-lex
|
Will JD Vance be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
| null | 1,725,400,540,238
| 1,730,805,847,813
| 1,730,805,847,813
|
NO
| 0.010001
| 10,400.499949
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tAP8SuzI0u
|
will-bitcoin-hit-an-all-time-high-b
|
Will Bitcoin hit an all time high before US election winner is called?
| null | 1,730,282,921,505
| 1,730,872,861,632
| 1,730,872,861,632
|
YES
| 0.986197
| 1,165.467594
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
End of preview. Expand
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