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| model_cards = dict( | |
| nhitsm={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_M incorporates hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling " | |
| "techniques. It assembles its predictions sequentially, selectively emphasizing " | |
| "components with different frequencies and scales, while decomposing the input signal " | |
| " and synthesizing the forecast [Cristian Challu, Kin G. Olivares, Boris N. Oreshkin, " | |
| "Federico Garza, Max Mergenthaler-Canseco, Artur Dubrawski. N-HiTS: Neural " | |
| "Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting, Submitted working paper.]" | |
| "(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_M model specializes in monthly long-horizon forecasting by improving " | |
| "accuracy and reducing the training time and memory requirements of the model." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable predictions of the model produce a natural frequency time " | |
| "series signal decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-HiTS_{M} to monthly data were it was pre-trained. " | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-HiTS_M was trained on 48,000 monthly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{challu2022nhits,\n " | |
| "author = {Cristian Challu and \n" | |
| " Kin G. Olivares and \n" | |
| " Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Federico Garza and \n" | |
| " Max Mergenthaler and \n" | |
| " Artur Dubrawski}, \n " | |
| "title = {N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting},\n " | |
| "journal = {Computing Research Repository},\n " | |
| "volume = {abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "year = {2022},\n " | |
| "url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "eprinttype = {arXiv},\n " | |
| "eprint = {2201.12886},\n " | |
| "biburl = {https://dblp.org/rec/journals/corr/abs-2201-12886.bib}\n}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nhitsh={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_{H} incorporates hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling " | |
| "techniques. It assembles its predictions sequentially, selectively emphasizing " | |
| "components with different frequencies and scales, while decomposing the input signal " | |
| " and synthesizing the forecast [Cristian Challu, Kin G. Olivares, Boris N. Oreshkin, " | |
| "Federico Garza, Max Mergenthaler-Canseco, Artur Dubrawski. N-HiTS: Neural " | |
| "Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting, Submitted working paper.]" | |
| "(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_{H} model specializes in hourly long-horizon forecasting by improving " | |
| "accuracy and reducing the training time and memory requirements of the model." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable predictions of the model produce a natural frequency time " | |
| "series signal decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-HiTS_{H} to hourly data were it was pre-trained. " | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-HiTS_{H} was trained on 414 hourly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{challu2022nhits,\n " | |
| "author = {Cristian Challu and \n" | |
| " Kin G. Olivares and \n" | |
| " Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Federico Garza and \n" | |
| " Max Mergenthaler and \n" | |
| " Artur Dubrawski}, \n " | |
| "title = {N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting},\n " | |
| "journal = {Computing Research Repository},\n " | |
| "volume = {abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "year = {2022},\n " | |
| "url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "eprinttype = {arXiv},\n " | |
| "eprint = {2201.12886},\n " | |
| "biburl = {https://dblp.org/rec/journals/corr/abs-2201-12886.bib}\n}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nhitsd={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_D incorporates hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling " | |
| "techniques. It assembles its predictions sequentially, selectively emphasizing " | |
| "components with different frequencies and scales, while decomposing the input signal " | |
| " and synthesizing the forecast [Cristian Challu, Kin G. Olivares, Boris N. Oreshkin, " | |
| "Federico Garza, Max Mergenthaler-Canseco, Artur Dubrawski. N-HiTS: Neural " | |
| "Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting, Submitted working paper.]" | |
| "(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_D model specializes in daily long-horizon forecasting by improving " | |
| "accuracy and reducing the training time and memory requirements of the model." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable predictions of the model produce a natural frequency time " | |
| "series signal decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-HiTS_D to daily data were it was pre-trained. " | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-HiTS_D was trained on 4,227 daily series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{challu2022nhits,\n " | |
| "author = {Cristian Challu and \n" | |
| " Kin G. Olivares and \n" | |
| " Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Federico Garza and \n" | |
| " Max Mergenthaler and \n" | |
| " Artur Dubrawski}, \n " | |
| "title = {N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting},\n " | |
| "journal = {Computing Research Repository},\n " | |
| "volume = {abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "year = {2022},\n " | |
| "url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "eprinttype = {arXiv},\n " | |
| "eprint = {2201.12886},\n " | |
| "biburl = {https://dblp.org/rec/journals/corr/abs-2201-12886.bib}\n}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nhitsy={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_Y incorporates hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling " | |
| "techniques. It assembles its predictions sequentially, selectively emphasizing " | |
| "components with different frequencies and scales, while decomposing the input signal " | |
| " and synthesizing the forecast [Cristian Challu, Kin G. Olivares, Boris N. Oreshkin, " | |
| "Federico Garza, Max Mergenthaler-Canseco, Artur Dubrawski. N-HiTS: Neural " | |
| "Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting, Submitted working paper.]" | |
| "(https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-HiTS_Y model specializes in yearly long-horizon forecasting by improving " | |
| "accuracy and reducing the training time and memory requirements of the model." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable predictions of the model produce a natural frequency time " | |
| "series signal decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-HiTS_Y to yearly data were it was pre-trained. " | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-HiTS_{H} was trained on 23,000 yearly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{challu2022nhits,\n " | |
| "author = {Cristian Challu and \n" | |
| " Kin G. Olivares and \n" | |
| " Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Federico Garza and \n" | |
| " Max Mergenthaler and \n" | |
| " Artur Dubrawski}, \n " | |
| "title = {N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting},\n " | |
| "journal = {Computing Research Repository},\n " | |
| "volume = {abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "year = {2022},\n " | |
| "url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12886},\n " | |
| "eprinttype = {arXiv},\n " | |
| "eprint = {2201.12886},\n " | |
| "biburl = {https://dblp.org/rec/journals/corr/abs-2201-12886.bib}\n}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nbeatsm={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_M models is a model based on a deep stack multi-layer percentrons connected" | |
| "with doubly residual connections. The model combines a multi-step forecasting strategy " | |
| "with projections unto piecewise functions for its generic version or polynomials and " | |
| "harmonics for its interpretable version. [Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitri Carpov, Nicolas " | |
| "Chapados, Yoshua Bengio. N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable " | |
| "time series forecasting. 8th International Conference on Learning Representations, " | |
| "ICLR 2020.](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.10437)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_M is an efficient univariate forecasting model specialized in monthly " | |
| "data, that uses the multi-step forecasting strategy." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable variant of N-BEATSi_M produces a trend and seasonality " | |
| "decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-BEATS_M to monthly data were it was pre-trained." | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-BEATS_M was trained on 48,000 monthly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@inproceedings{oreshkin2020nbeats,\n " | |
| "author = {Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Dmitri Carpov and \n" | |
| " Nicolas Chapados and\n" | |
| " Yoshua Bengio},\n " | |
| "title = {{N-BEATS:} Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting},\n " | |
| "booktitle = {8th International Conference on Learning Representations, {ICLR} 2020},\n " | |
| "year = {2020},\n " | |
| "url = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=r1ecqn4YwB}\n }" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nbeatsh={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_H models is a model based on a deep stack multi-layer percentrons connected" | |
| "with doubly residual connections. The model combines a multi-step forecasting strategy " | |
| "with projections unto piecewise functions for its generic version or polynomials and " | |
| "harmonics for its interpretable version. [Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitri Carpov, Nicolas " | |
| "Chapados, Yoshua Bengio. N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable " | |
| "time series forecasting. 8th International Conference on Learning Representations, " | |
| "ICLR 2020.](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.10437)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_H is an efficient univariate forecasting model specialized in hourly " | |
| "data, that uses the multi-step forecasting strategy." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable variant of N-BEATSi_H produces a trend and seasonality " | |
| "decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-BEATS_H to hourly data were it was pre-trained." | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-BEATS_H was trained on 414 hourly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@inproceedings{oreshkin2020nbeats,\n " | |
| "author = {Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Dmitri Carpov and \n" | |
| " Nicolas Chapados and\n" | |
| " Yoshua Bengio},\n " | |
| "title = {{N-BEATS:} Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting},\n " | |
| "booktitle = {8th International Conference on Learning Representations, {ICLR} 2020},\n " | |
| "year = {2020},\n " | |
| "url = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=r1ecqn4YwB}\n }" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nbeatsd={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_D models is a model based on a deep stack multi-layer percentrons connected" | |
| "with doubly residual connections. The model combines a multi-step forecasting strategy " | |
| "with projections unto piecewise functions for its generic version or polynomials and " | |
| "harmonics for its interpretable version. [Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitri Carpov, Nicolas " | |
| "Chapados, Yoshua Bengio. N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable " | |
| "time series forecasting. 8th International Conference on Learning Representations, " | |
| "ICLR 2020.](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.10437)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_D is an efficient univariate forecasting model specialized in hourly " | |
| "data, that uses the multi-step forecasting strategy." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable variant of N-BEATSi_D produces a trend and seasonality " | |
| "decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-BEATS_D to daily data were it was pre-trained." | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-BEATS_D was trained on 4,227 daily series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@inproceedings{oreshkin2020nbeats,\n " | |
| "author = {Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Dmitri Carpov and \n" | |
| " Nicolas Chapados and\n" | |
| " Yoshua Bengio},\n " | |
| "title = {{N-BEATS:} Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting},\n " | |
| "booktitle = {8th International Conference on Learning Representations, {ICLR} 2020},\n " | |
| "year = {2020},\n " | |
| "url = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=r1ecqn4YwB}\n }" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nbeatsw={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_W models is a model based on a deep stack multi-layer percentrons connected" | |
| "with doubly residual connections. The model combines a multi-step forecasting strategy " | |
| "with projections unto piecewise functions for its generic version or polynomials and " | |
| "harmonics for its interpretable version. [Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitri Carpov, Nicolas " | |
| "Chapados, Yoshua Bengio. N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable " | |
| "time series forecasting. 8th International Conference on Learning Representations, " | |
| "ICLR 2020.](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.10437)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_W is an efficient univariate forecasting model specialized in weekly " | |
| "data, that uses the multi-step forecasting strategy." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable variant of N-BEATSi_W produces a trend and seasonality " | |
| "decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-BEATS_W to weekly data were it was pre-trained." | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-BEATS_W was trained on 359 weekly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@inproceedings{oreshkin2020nbeats,\n " | |
| "author = {Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Dmitri Carpov and \n" | |
| " Nicolas Chapados and\n" | |
| " Yoshua Bengio},\n " | |
| "title = {{N-BEATS:} Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting},\n " | |
| "booktitle = {8th International Conference on Learning Representations, {ICLR} 2020},\n " | |
| "year = {2020},\n " | |
| "url = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=r1ecqn4YwB}\n }" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| nbeatsy={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_Y models is a model based on a deep stack multi-layer percentrons connected" | |
| "with doubly residual connections. The model combines a multi-step forecasting strategy " | |
| "with projections unto piecewise functions for its generic version or polynomials and " | |
| "harmonics for its interpretable version. [Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitri Carpov, Nicolas " | |
| "Chapados, Yoshua Bengio. N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable " | |
| "time series forecasting. 8th International Conference on Learning Representations, " | |
| "ICLR 2020.](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.10437)" | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The N-BEATS_Y is an efficient univariate forecasting model specialized in hourly " | |
| "data, that uses the multi-step forecasting strategy." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The interpretable variant of N-BEATSi_Y produces a trend and seasonality " | |
| "decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The transferability across different frequencies has not yet been tested, it is " | |
| "advisable to restrict the use of N-BEATS_Y to yearly data were it was pre-trained." | |
| "This model purely autorregresive, transferability of models with exogenous variables " | |
| "is yet to be done." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "N-BEATS_Y was trained on 23,000 yearly series from the M4 competition " | |
| "[Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos. The " | |
| " M4 competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods. International " | |
| "Journal of Forecasting, 36(1):54β74, 2020. ISSN 0169-2070.]" | |
| "(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019301128)" | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@inproceedings{oreshkin2020nbeats,\n " | |
| "author = {Boris N. Oreshkin and \n" | |
| " Dmitri Carpov and \n" | |
| " Nicolas Chapados and\n" | |
| " Yoshua Bengio},\n " | |
| "title = {{N-BEATS:} Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting},\n " | |
| "booktitle = {8th International Conference on Learning Representations, {ICLR} 2020},\n " | |
| "year = {2020},\n " | |
| "url = {https://openreview.net/forum?id=r1ecqn4YwB}\n }" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| arima={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "The AutoARIMA model is a classic autoregressive model that automatically explores ARIMA" | |
| "models with a step-wise algorithm using Akaike Information Criterion. It applies to " | |
| "seasonal and non-seasonal data and has a proven record in the M3 forecasting competition. " | |
| "An efficient open-source version of the model was only available in R but is now also " | |
| "available in Python. [StatsForecast: Lightning fast forecasting with statistical and " | |
| "econometric models](https://github.com/Nixtla/statsforecast)." | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "The AutoARIMA is an univariate forecasting model, intended to produce automatic " | |
| "predictions for large numbers of time series." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "It is a classical model and is an almost obligated forecasting baseline." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "ARIMA model uses a recurrent prediction strategy. It concatenates errors on long " | |
| "horizon forecasting settings. It is a fairly simple model that does not model " | |
| "non-linear relationships." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "The AutoARIMA is a univariate model that uses only autorregresive data from " | |
| "the target variable." | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{hyndman2008auto_arima," | |
| "title={Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R},\n" | |
| "author={Hyndman, Rob J. and Khandakar, Yeasmin},\n" | |
| "volume={27},\n" | |
| "url={https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/view/v027i03},\n" | |
| "doi={10.18637/jss.v027.i03},\n" | |
| "number={3},\n" | |
| "journal={Journal of Statistical Software},\n" | |
| "year={2008},\n" | |
| "pages={1β22}\n" | |
| "}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| exp_smoothing={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "Exponential smoothing is a classic technique using exponential window functions, " | |
| "and one of the most successful forecasting methods. It has a long history, the " | |
| "name was coined by Charles C. Holt. [Holt, Charles C. (1957). Forecasting Trends " | |
| 'and Seasonal by Exponentially Weighted Averages". Office of Naval Research ' | |
| "Memorandum.](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169207003001134)." | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ( | |
| "Simple variants of exponential smoothing can serve as an efficient baseline method." | |
| ), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The exponential smoothing method can also act as a low-pass filter removing " | |
| "high-frequency noise. " | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The method can face limitations if the series show strong discontinuities, or if " | |
| "the high-frequency components are an important part of the predicted signal." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "Just like the ARIMA method, exponential smoothing uses only autorregresive data " | |
| " from the target variable." | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{holt1957exponential_smoothing, \n" | |
| "title = {Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages},\n" | |
| "author = {Charles C. Holt},\n" | |
| "journal = {International Journal of Forecasting},\n" | |
| "volume = {20},\n" | |
| "number = {1},\n" | |
| "pages = {5-10}\n," | |
| "year = {2004(1957)},\n" | |
| "issn = {0169-2070},\n" | |
| "doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.015},\n" | |
| "url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207003001134},\n" | |
| "}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| prophet={ | |
| "Abstract": ( | |
| "Prophet is a widely used forecasting method. Prophet is a nonlinear regression model." | |
| ), | |
| "Intended use": ("Prophet can serve as a baseline method."), | |
| "Secondary use": ( | |
| "The Prophet model is also useful for time series decomposition." | |
| ), | |
| "Limitations": ( | |
| "The method can face limitations if the series show strong discontinuities, or if " | |
| "the high-frequency components are an important part of the predicted signal." | |
| ), | |
| "Training data": ( | |
| "Just like the ARIMA method and exponential smoothing, Prophet uses only autorregresive data " | |
| " from the target variable." | |
| ), | |
| "Citation Info": ( | |
| "@article{doi:10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080,\n" | |
| "author = {Sean J. Taylor and Benjamin Letham},\n" | |
| "title = {Forecasting at Scale},\n" | |
| "journal = {The American Statistician},\n" | |
| "volume = {72},\n" | |
| "number = {1},\n" | |
| "pages = {37-45},\n" | |
| "year = {2018},\n" | |
| "publisher = {Taylor & Francis},\n" | |
| "doi = {10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080},\n" | |
| "URL = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080},\n" | |
| "eprint = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2017.1380080},\n" | |
| "}" | |
| ), | |
| }, | |
| ) | |