Daily Papers

Convolutional neural networks have recently demonstrated high-quality reconstruction for single-image super-resolution. In this paper, we propose the Laplacian Pyramid Super-Resolution Network (LapSRN) to progressively reconstruct the sub-band residuals of high-resolution images. At each pyramid level, our model takes coarse-resolution feature maps as input, predicts the high-frequency residuals, and uses transposed convolutions for upsampling to the finer level. Our method does not require the bicubic interpolation as the pre-processing step and thus dramatically reduces the computational complexity. We train the proposed LapSRN with deep supervision using a robust Charbonnier loss function and achieve high-quality reconstruction. Furthermore, our network generates multi-scale predictions in one feed-forward pass through the progressive reconstruction, thereby facilitates resource-aware applications. Extensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations on benchmark datasets show that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against the state-of-the-art methods in terms of speed and accuracy.

This paper introduces a Transformer-based integrative feature and cost aggregation network designed for dense matching tasks. In the context of dense matching, many works benefit from one of two forms of aggregation: feature aggregation, which pertains to the alignment of similar features, or cost aggregation, a procedure aimed at instilling coherence in the flow estimates across neighboring pixels. In this work, we first show that feature aggregation and cost aggregation exhibit distinct characteristics and reveal the potential for substantial benefits stemming from the judicious use of both aggregation processes. We then introduce a simple yet effective architecture that harnesses self- and cross-attention mechanisms to show that our approach unifies feature aggregation and cost aggregation and effectively harnesses the strengths of both techniques. Within the proposed attention layers, the features and cost volume both complement each other, and the attention layers are interleaved through a coarse-to-fine design to further promote accurate correspondence estimation. Finally at inference, our network produces multi-scale predictions, computes their confidence scores, and selects the most confident flow for final prediction. Our framework is evaluated on standard benchmarks for semantic matching, and also applied to geometric matching, where we show that our approach achieves significant improvements compared to existing methods.

Aggregating information from features across different layers is an essential operation for dense prediction models. Despite its limited expressiveness, feature concatenation dominates the choice of aggregation operations. In this paper, we introduce Attentive Feature Aggregation (AFA) to fuse different network layers with more expressive non-linear operations. AFA exploits both spatial and channel attention to compute weighted average of the layer activations. Inspired by neural volume rendering, we extend AFA with Scale-Space Rendering (SSR) to perform late fusion of multi-scale predictions. AFA is applicable to a wide range of existing network designs. Our experiments show consistent and significant improvements on challenging semantic segmentation benchmarks, including Cityscapes, BDD100K, and Mapillary Vistas, at negligible computational and parameter overhead. In particular, AFA improves the performance of the Deep Layer Aggregation (DLA) model by nearly 6% mIoU on Cityscapes. Our experimental analyses show that AFA learns to progressively refine segmentation maps and to improve boundary details, leading to new state-of-the-art results on boundary detection benchmarks on BSDS500 and NYUDv2. Code and video resources are available at http://vis.xyz/pub/dla-afa.

Human body orientation estimation (HBOE) is widely applied into various applications, including robotics, surveillance, pedestrian analysis and autonomous driving. Although many approaches have been addressing the HBOE problem from specific under-controlled scenes to challenging in-the-wild environments, they assume human instances are already detected and take a well cropped sub-image as the input. This setting is less efficient and prone to errors in real application, such as crowds of people. In the paper, we propose a single-stage end-to-end trainable framework for tackling the HBOE problem with multi-persons. By integrating the prediction of bounding boxes and direction angles in one embedding, our method can jointly estimate the location and orientation of all bodies in one image directly. Our key idea is to integrate the HBOE task into the multi-scale anchor channel predictions of persons for concurrently benefiting from engaged intermediate features. Therefore, our approach can naturally adapt to difficult instances involving low resolution and occlusion as in object detection. We validated the efficiency and effectiveness of our method in the recently presented benchmark MEBOW with extensive experiments. Besides, we completed ambiguous instances ignored by the MEBOW dataset, and provided corresponding weak body-orientation labels to keep the integrity and consistency of it for supporting studies toward multi-persons. Our work is available at https://github.com/hnuzhy/JointBDOE.

Recent work found that LLMs are sensitive to a wide range of arbitrary prompt dimensions, including the type of delimiters, answer enumerators, instruction wording, and more. This throws into question popular single-prompt evaluation practices. We present DOVE (Dataset Of Variation Evaluation) a large-scale dataset containing prompt perturbations of various evaluation benchmarks. In contrast to previous work, we examine LLM sensitivity from an holistic perspective, and assess the joint effects of perturbations along various dimensions, resulting in thousands of perturbations per instance. We evaluate several model families against DOVE, leading to several findings, including efficient methods for choosing well-performing prompts, observing that few-shot examples reduce sensitivity, and identifying instances which are inherently hard across all perturbations. DOVE consists of more than 250M prompt perturbations and model outputs, which we make publicly available to spur a community-wide effort toward meaningful, robust, and efficient evaluation. Browse the data, contribute, and more: https://slab-nlp.github.io/DOVE/

Although Vision Transformer (ViT) has achieved significant success in computer vision, it does not perform well in dense prediction tasks due to the lack of inner-patch information interaction and the limited diversity of feature scale. Most existing studies are devoted to designing vision-specific transformers to solve the above problems, which introduce additional pre-training costs. Therefore, we present a plain, pre-training-free, and feature-enhanced ViT backbone with Convolutional Multi-scale feature interaction, named ViT-CoMer, which facilitates bidirectional interaction between CNN and transformer. Compared to the state-of-the-art, ViT-CoMer has the following advantages: (1) We inject spatial pyramid multi-receptive field convolutional features into the ViT architecture, which effectively alleviates the problems of limited local information interaction and single-feature representation in ViT. (2) We propose a simple and efficient CNN-Transformer bidirectional fusion interaction module that performs multi-scale fusion across hierarchical features, which is beneficial for handling dense prediction tasks. (3) We evaluate the performance of ViT-CoMer across various dense prediction tasks, different frameworks, and multiple advanced pre-training. Notably, our ViT-CoMer-L achieves 64.3% AP on COCO val2017 without extra training data, and 62.1% mIoU on ADE20K val, both of which are comparable to state-of-the-art methods. We hope ViT-CoMer can serve as a new backbone for dense prediction tasks to facilitate future research. The code will be released at https://github.com/Traffic-X/ViT-CoMer.

Adversarial examples pose a significant challenge to the robustness, reliability and alignment of deep neural networks. We propose a novel, easy-to-use approach to achieving high-quality representations that lead to adversarial robustness through the use of multi-resolution input representations and dynamic self-ensembling of intermediate layer predictions. We demonstrate that intermediate layer predictions exhibit inherent robustness to adversarial attacks crafted to fool the full classifier, and propose a robust aggregation mechanism based on Vickrey auction that we call CrossMax to dynamically ensemble them. By combining multi-resolution inputs and robust ensembling, we achieve significant adversarial robustness on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets without any adversarial training or extra data, reaching an adversarial accuracy of approx72% (CIFAR-10) and approx48% (CIFAR-100) on the RobustBench AutoAttack suite (L_infty=8/255) with a finetuned ImageNet-pretrained ResNet152. This represents a result comparable with the top three models on CIFAR-10 and a +5 % gain compared to the best current dedicated approach on CIFAR-100. Adding simple adversarial training on top, we get approx78% on CIFAR-10 and approx51% on CIFAR-100, improving SOTA by 5 % and 9 % respectively and seeing greater gains on the harder dataset. We validate our approach through extensive experiments and provide insights into the interplay between adversarial robustness, and the hierarchical nature of deep representations. We show that simple gradient-based attacks against our model lead to human-interpretable images of the target classes as well as interpretable image changes. As a byproduct, using our multi-resolution prior, we turn pre-trained classifiers and CLIP models into controllable image generators and develop successful transferable attacks on large vision language models.

Even though convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are driving progress in medical image segmentation, standard models still have some drawbacks. First, the use of multi-scale approaches, i.e., encoder-decoder architectures, leads to a redundant use of information, where similar low-level features are extracted multiple times at multiple scales. Second, long-range feature dependencies are not efficiently modeled, resulting in non-optimal discriminative feature representations associated with each semantic class. In this paper we attempt to overcome these limitations with the proposed architecture, by capturing richer contextual dependencies based on the use of guided self-attention mechanisms. This approach is able to integrate local features with their corresponding global dependencies, as well as highlight interdependent channel maps in an adaptive manner. Further, the additional loss between different modules guides the attention mechanisms to neglect irrelevant information and focus on more discriminant regions of the image by emphasizing relevant feature associations. We evaluate the proposed model in the context of semantic segmentation on three different datasets: abdominal organs, cardiovascular structures and brain tumors. A series of ablation experiments support the importance of these attention modules in the proposed architecture. In addition, compared to other state-of-the-art segmentation networks our model yields better segmentation performance, increasing the accuracy of the predictions while reducing the standard deviation. This demonstrates the efficiency of our approach to generate precise and reliable automatic segmentations of medical images. Our code is made publicly available at https://github.com/sinAshish/Multi-Scale-Attention

Recently, many methods to interpret and visualize deep neural network predictions have been proposed and significant progress has been made. However, a more class-discriminative and visually pleasing explanation is required. Thus, this paper proposes a region-based approach that estimates feature importance in terms of appropriately segmented regions. By fusing the saliency maps generated from multi-scale segmentations, a more class-discriminative and visually pleasing map is obtained. We incorporate this regional multi-scale concept into a prediction difference method that is model-agnostic. An input image is segmented in several scales using the super-pixel method, and exclusion of a region is simulated by sampling a normal distribution constructed using the boundary prior. The experimental results demonstrate that the regional multi-scale method produces much more class-discriminative and visually pleasing saliency maps.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

AlphaFold predicts protein structures from the amino acid sequence at or near experimental resolution, solving the 50-year-old protein folding challenge, leading to progress by transforming large-scale genomics data into protein structures. AlphaFold will also greatly change the scientific research model from low-throughput to high-throughput manner. The AlphaFold framework is a mixture of two types of workloads: MSA construction based on CPUs and model inference on GPUs. The first CPU stage dominates the overall runtime, taking hours for a single protein due to the large database sizes and I/O bottlenecks. However, GPUs in this CPU stage remain idle, resulting in low GPU utilization and restricting the capacity of large-scale structure predictions. Therefore, we proposed ParaFold, an open-source parallel version of AlphaFold for high throughput protein structure predictions. ParaFold separates the CPU and GPU parts to enable large-scale structure predictions. ParaFold also effectively reduces the CPU and GPU runtime with two optimizations without compromising the quality of prediction results: using multi-threaded parallelism on CPUs and using optimized JAX compilation on GPUs. We evaluated ParaFold with three datasets of different size and protein lengths. We evaluated the accuracy and efficiency of optimizations on CPUs and GPUs, and showed the large-scale prediction capability by running ParaFold inferences of 19,704 small proteins in five hours on one NVIDIA DGX-2. Using the JAX compile optimization, ParaFold attained a 13.8X average speedup over AlphaFold. ParaFold offers a rapid and effective approach for high-throughput structure predictions, leveraging the predictive power by running on supercomputers, with shorter time, and at a lower cost. The development of ParaFold will greatly speed up high-throughput studies and render the protein "structure-omics" feasible.

Existing emotional speech synthesis methods often utilize an utterance-level style embedding extracted from reference audio, neglecting the inherent multi-scale property of speech prosody. We introduce ED-TTS, a multi-scale emotional speech synthesis model that leverages Speech Emotion Diarization (SED) and Speech Emotion Recognition (SER) to model emotions at different levels. Specifically, our proposed approach integrates the utterance-level emotion embedding extracted by SER with fine-grained frame-level emotion embedding obtained from SED. These embeddings are used to condition the reverse process of the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM). Additionally, we employ cross-domain SED to accurately predict soft labels, addressing the challenge of a scarcity of fine-grained emotion-annotated datasets for supervising emotional TTS training.

Zero-Shot Composed Image Retrieval (ZS-CIR) aims to retrieve target images by integrating information from a composed query (reference image and modification text) without training samples. Existing methods primarily combine caption models and large language models (LLMs) to generate target captions based on composed queries but face various issues such as incompatibility, visual information loss, and insufficient reasoning. In this work, we propose CoTMR, a training-free framework crafted for ZS-CIR with novel Chain-of-thought (CoT) and Multi-scale Reasoning. Instead of relying on caption models for modality transformation, CoTMR employs the Large Vision-Language Model (LVLM) to achieve unified understanding and reasoning for composed queries. To enhance the reasoning reliability, we devise CIRCoT, which guides the LVLM through a step-by-step inference process using predefined subtasks. Considering that existing approaches focus solely on global-level reasoning, our CoTMR incorporates multi-scale reasoning to achieve more comprehensive inference via fine-grained predictions about the presence or absence of key elements at the object scale. Further, we design a Multi-Grained Scoring (MGS) mechanism, which integrates CLIP similarity scores of the above reasoning outputs with candidate images to realize precise retrieval. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our CoTMR not only drastically outperforms previous methods across four prominent benchmarks but also offers appealing interpretability.

Efficient and accurate prediction of material properties is critical for advancing materials design and applications. The rapid-evolution of large language models (LLMs) presents a new opportunity for material property predictions, complementing experimental measurements and multi-scale computational methods. We focus on predicting the elastic constant tensor, as a case study, and develop domain-specific LLMs for predicting elastic constants and for materials discovery. The proposed ElaTBot LLM enables simultaneous prediction of elastic constant tensors, bulk modulus at finite temperatures, and the generation of new materials with targeted properties. Moreover, the capabilities of ElaTBot are further enhanced by integrating with general LLMs (GPT-4o) and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) for prediction. A specialized variant, ElaTBot-DFT, designed for 0 K elastic constant tensor prediction, reduces the prediction errors by 33.1% compared with domain-specific, material science LLMs (Darwin) trained on the same dataset. This natural language-based approach lowers the barriers to computational materials science and highlights the broader potential of LLMs for material property predictions and inverse design.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) have shown remarkable performance and scalability across various computer vision tasks. To apply single-scale ViTs to image segmentation, existing methods adopt a convolutional adapter to generate multi-scale features, a pixel decoder to fuse these features, and a Transformer decoder that uses the fused features to make predictions. In this paper, we show that the inductive biases introduced by these task-specific components can instead be learned by the ViT itself, given sufficiently large models and extensive pre-training. Based on these findings, we introduce the Encoder-only Mask Transformer (EoMT), which repurposes the plain ViT architecture to conduct image segmentation. With large-scale models and pre-training, EoMT obtains a segmentation accuracy similar to state-of-the-art models that use task-specific components. At the same time, EoMT is significantly faster than these methods due to its architectural simplicity, e.g., up to 4x faster with ViT-L. Across a range of model sizes, EoMT demonstrates an optimal balance between segmentation accuracy and prediction speed, suggesting that compute resources are better spent on scaling the ViT itself rather than adding architectural complexity. Code: https://www.tue-mps.org/eomt/.

Technical Element Score (TES) and Program Component Score (PCS) evaluations in figure skating demand precise assessment of athletic actions and artistic interpretation, respectively. Existing methods face three major challenges. Firstly, video and audio cues are regarded as common features for both TES and PCS predictions in previous works without considering the prior evaluation criterion of figure skating. Secondly, action elements in competitions are separated in time, TES should be derived from each element's score, but existing methods try to give an overall TES prediction without evaluating each action element. Thirdly, lengthy competition videos make it difficult and inefficient to handle long-range contexts. To address these challenges, we propose a two-stream Mamba pyramid network that aligns with actual judging criteria to predict TES and PCS by separating visual-feature based TES evaluation stream from audio-visual-feature based PCS evaluation stream. In the PCS evaluation stream, we introduce a multi-level fusion mechanism to guarantee that video-based features remain unaffected when assessing TES, and enhance PCS estimation by fusing visual and auditory cues across each contextual level of the pyramid. In the TES evaluation stream, the multi-scale Mamba pyramid and TES head we proposed effectively address the challenges of localizing and evaluating action elements with various temporal scales and give score predictions. With Mamba's superior ability to capture long-range dependencies and its linear computational complexity, our method is ideal for handling lengthy figure skating videos. Comprehensive experimentation demonstrates that our framework attains state-of-the-art performance on the FineFS benchmark. Our source code is available at https://github.com/ycwfs/Figure-Skating-Action-Quality-Assessment.

Fine-tuning pre-trained Vision Transformers (ViT) has consistently demonstrated promising performance in the realm of visual recognition. However, adapting large pre-trained models to various tasks poses a significant challenge. This challenge arises from the need for each model to undergo an independent and comprehensive fine-tuning process, leading to substantial computational and memory demands. While recent advancements in Parameter-efficient Transfer Learning (PETL) have demonstrated their ability to achieve superior performance compared to full fine-tuning with a smaller subset of parameter updates, they tend to overlook dense prediction tasks such as object detection and segmentation. In this paper, we introduce Hierarchical Side-Tuning (HST), a novel PETL approach that enables ViT transfer to various downstream tasks effectively. Diverging from existing methods that exclusively fine-tune parameters within input spaces or certain modules connected to the backbone, we tune a lightweight and hierarchical side network (HSN) that leverages intermediate activations extracted from the backbone and generates multi-scale features to make predictions. To validate HST, we conducted extensive experiments encompassing diverse visual tasks, including classification, object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation. Notably, our method achieves state-of-the-art average Top-1 accuracy of 76.0% on VTAB-1k, all while fine-tuning a mere 0.78M parameters. When applied to object detection tasks on COCO testdev benchmark, HST even surpasses full fine-tuning and obtains better performance with 49.7 box AP and 43.2 mask AP using Cascade Mask R-CNN.

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

This paper proposes a unified diffusion framework (dubbed UniDiffuser) to fit all distributions relevant to a set of multi-modal data in one model. Our key insight is -- learning diffusion models for marginal, conditional, and joint distributions can be unified as predicting the noise in the perturbed data, where the perturbation levels (i.e. timesteps) can be different for different modalities. Inspired by the unified view, UniDiffuser learns all distributions simultaneously with a minimal modification to the original diffusion model -- perturbs data in all modalities instead of a single modality, inputs individual timesteps in different modalities, and predicts the noise of all modalities instead of a single modality. UniDiffuser is parameterized by a transformer for diffusion models to handle input types of different modalities. Implemented on large-scale paired image-text data, UniDiffuser is able to perform image, text, text-to-image, image-to-text, and image-text pair generation by setting proper timesteps without additional overhead. In particular, UniDiffuser is able to produce perceptually realistic samples in all tasks and its quantitative results (e.g., the FID and CLIP score) are not only superior to existing general-purpose models but also comparable to the bespoken models (e.g., Stable Diffusion and DALL-E 2) in representative tasks (e.g., text-to-image generation).

Multi-label text classification is a critical task in the industry. It helps to extract structured information from large amount of textual data. We propose Text to Topic (Text2Topic), which achieves high multi-label classification performance by employing a Bi-Encoder Transformer architecture that utilizes concatenation, subtraction, and multiplication of embeddings on both text and topic. Text2Topic also supports zero-shot predictions, produces domain-specific text embeddings, and enables production-scale batch-inference with high throughput. The final model achieves accurate and comprehensive results compared to state-of-the-art baselines, including large language models (LLMs). In this study, a total of 239 topics are defined, and around 1.6 million text-topic pairs annotations (in which 200K are positive) are collected on approximately 120K texts from 3 main data sources on Booking.com. The data is collected with optimized smart sampling and partial labeling. The final Text2Topic model is deployed on a real-world stream processing platform, and it outperforms other models with 92.9% micro mAP, as well as a 75.8% macro mAP score. We summarize the modeling choices which are extensively tested through ablation studies, and share detailed in-production decision-making steps.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

Vision Language Models (VLMs), pre-trained on large-scale image-text datasets, enable zero-shot predictions for unseen data but may underperform on specific unseen tasks. Continual learning (CL) can help VLMs effectively adapt to new data distributions without joint training, but faces challenges of catastrophic forgetting and generalization forgetting. Although significant progress has been achieved by distillation-based methods, they exhibit two severe limitations. One is the popularly adopted single-teacher paradigm fails to impart comprehensive knowledge, The other is the existing methods inadequately leverage the multimodal information in the original training dataset, instead they rely on additional data for distillation, which increases computational and storage overhead. To mitigate both limitations, by drawing on Knowledge Integration Theory (KIT), we propose a Multi-Stage Knowledge Integration network (MulKI) to emulate the human learning process in distillation methods. MulKI achieves this through four stages, including Eliciting Ideas, Adding New Ideas, Distinguishing Ideas, and Making Connections. During the four stages, we first leverage prototypes to align across modalities, eliciting cross-modal knowledge, then adding new knowledge by constructing fine-grained intra- and inter-modality relationships with prototypes. After that, knowledge from two teacher models is adaptively distinguished and re-weighted. Finally, we connect between models from intra- and inter-task, integrating preceding and new knowledge. Our method demonstrates significant improvements in maintaining zero-shot capabilities while supporting continual learning across diverse downstream tasks, showcasing its potential in adapting VLMs to evolving data distributions.

Understanding the various properties of glycans with machine learning has shown some preliminary promise. However, previous methods mainly focused on modeling the backbone structure of glycans as graphs of monosaccharides (i.e., sugar units), while they neglected the atomic structures underlying each monosaccharide, which are actually important indicators of glycan properties. We fill this blank by introducing the GlycanAA model for All-Atom-wise Glycan modeling. GlycanAA models a glycan as a heterogeneous graph with monosaccharide nodes representing its global backbone structure and atom nodes representing its local atomic-level structures. Based on such a graph, GlycanAA performs hierarchical message passing to capture from local atomic-level interactions to global monosaccharide-level interactions. To further enhance model capability, we pre-train GlycanAA on a high-quality unlabeled glycan dataset, deriving the PreGlycanAA model. We design a multi-scale mask prediction algorithm to endow the model about different levels of dependencies in a glycan. Extensive benchmark results show the superiority of GlycanAA over existing glycan encoders and verify the further improvements achieved by PreGlycanAA. We maintain all resources at https://github.com/kasawa1234/GlycanAA

Recent advances in self-supervised learning for Vision Transformers (ViTs) have fueled breakthroughs in remote sensing (RS) foundation models. However, the quadratic complexity of self-attention poses a significant barrier to scalability, particularly for large models and high-resolution images. While the linear-complexity Mamba architecture offers a promising alternative, existing RS applications of Mamba remain limited to supervised tasks on small, domain-specific datasets. To address these challenges, we propose RoMA, a framework that enables scalable self-supervised pretraining of Mamba-based RS foundation models using large-scale, diverse, unlabeled data. RoMA enhances scalability for high-resolution images through a tailored auto-regressive learning strategy, incorporating two key innovations: 1) a rotation-aware pretraining mechanism combining adaptive cropping with angular embeddings to handle sparsely distributed objects with arbitrary orientations, and 2) multi-scale token prediction objectives that address the extreme variations in object scales inherent to RS imagery. Systematic empirical studies validate that Mamba adheres to RS data and parameter scaling laws, with performance scaling reliably as model and data size increase. Furthermore, experiments across scene classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation tasks demonstrate that RoMA-pretrained Mamba models consistently outperform ViT-based counterparts in both accuracy and computational efficiency. The source code and pretrained models will be released at https://github.com/MiliLab/RoMA.

State-of-the-art models for semantic segmentation are based on adaptations of convolutional networks that had originally been designed for image classification. However, dense prediction and image classification are structurally different. In this work, we develop a new convolutional network module that is specifically designed for dense prediction. The presented module uses dilated convolutions to systematically aggregate multi-scale contextual information without losing resolution. The architecture is based on the fact that dilated convolutions support exponential expansion of the receptive field without loss of resolution or coverage. We show that the presented context module increases the accuracy of state-of-the-art semantic segmentation systems. In addition, we examine the adaptation of image classification networks to dense prediction and show that simplifying the adapted network can increase accuracy.

Synthesizing speech across different accents while preserving the speaker identity is essential for various real-world customer applications. However, the individual and accurate modeling of accents and speakers in a text-to-speech (TTS) system is challenging due to the complexity of accent variations and the intrinsic entanglement between the accent and speaker identity. In this paper, we present a novel approach for multi-speaker multi-accent TTS synthesis, which aims to synthesize voices of multiple speakers, each with various accents. Our proposed approach employs a multi-scale accent modeling strategy to address accent variations at different levels. Specifically, we introduce both global (utterance level) and local (phoneme level) accent modeling, supervised by individual accent classifiers to capture the overall variation within accented utterances and fine-grained variations between phonemes, respectively. To control accents and speakers separately, speaker-independent accent modeling is necessary, which is achieved by adversarial training with speaker classifiers to disentangle speaker identity within the multi-scale accent modeling. Consequently, we obtain speaker-independent and accent-discriminative multi-scale embeddings as comprehensive accent features. Additionally, we propose a local accent prediction model that allows to generate accented speech directly from phoneme inputs. Extensive experiments are conducted on an accented English speech corpus. Both objective and subjective evaluations show the superiority of our proposed system compared to baselines systems. Detailed component analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of global and local accent modeling, and speaker disentanglement on multi-speaker multi-accent speech synthesis.

Accurate and reliable energy time series prediction is of great significance for power generation planning and allocation. At present, deep learning time series prediction has become the mainstream method. However, the multi-scale time dynamics and the irregularity of real data lead to the limitations of the existing methods. Therefore, we propose EnergyPatchTST, which is an extension of the Patch Time Series Transformer specially designed for energy forecasting. The main innovations of our method are as follows: (1) multi-scale feature extraction mechanism to capture patterns with different time resolutions; (2) probability prediction framework to estimate uncertainty through Monte Carlo elimination; (3) integration path of future known variables (such as temperature and wind conditions); And (4) Pre-training and Fine-tuning examples to enhance the performance of limited energy data sets. A series of experiments on common energy data sets show that EnergyPatchTST is superior to other commonly used methods, the prediction error is reduced by 7-12%, and reliable uncertainty estimation is provided, which provides an important reference for time series prediction in the energy field.

Prototypical part learning is emerging as a promising approach for making semantic segmentation interpretable. The model selects real patches seen during training as prototypes and constructs the dense prediction map based on the similarity between parts of the test image and the prototypes. This improves interpretability since the user can inspect the link between the predicted output and the patterns learned by the model in terms of prototypical information. In this paper, we propose a method for interpretable semantic segmentation that leverages multi-scale image representation for prototypical part learning. First, we introduce a prototype layer that explicitly learns diverse prototypical parts at several scales, leading to multi-scale representations in the prototype activation output. Then, we propose a sparse grouping mechanism that produces multi-scale sparse groups of these scale-specific prototypical parts. This provides a deeper understanding of the interactions between multi-scale object representations while enhancing the interpretability of the segmentation model. The experiments conducted on Pascal VOC, Cityscapes, and ADE20K demonstrate that the proposed method increases model sparsity, improves interpretability over existing prototype-based methods, and narrows the performance gap with the non-interpretable counterpart models. Code is available at github.com/eceo-epfl/ScaleProtoSeg.

3D scene understanding plays a vital role in vision-based autonomous driving. While most existing methods focus on 3D object detection, they have difficulty describing real-world objects of arbitrary shapes and infinite classes. Towards a more comprehensive perception of a 3D scene, in this paper, we propose a SurroundOcc method to predict the 3D occupancy with multi-camera images. We first extract multi-scale features for each image and adopt spatial 2D-3D attention to lift them to the 3D volume space. Then we apply 3D convolutions to progressively upsample the volume features and impose supervision on multiple levels. To obtain dense occupancy prediction, we design a pipeline to generate dense occupancy ground truth without expansive occupancy annotations. Specifically, we fuse multi-frame LiDAR scans of dynamic objects and static scenes separately. Then we adopt Poisson Reconstruction to fill the holes and voxelize the mesh to get dense occupancy labels. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and SemanticKITTI datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/weiyithu/SurroundOcc

Molecular docking is a key computational tool utilized to predict the binding conformations of small molecules to protein targets, which is fundamental in the design of novel drugs. Despite recent advancements in geometric deep learning-based approaches leading to improvements in blind docking efficiency, these methods have encountered notable challenges, such as limited generalization performance on unseen proteins, the inability to concurrently address the settings of blind docking and site-specific docking, and the frequent occurrence of physical implausibilities such as inter-molecular steric clash. In this study, we introduce DeltaDock, a robust and versatile framework designed for efficient molecular docking to overcome these challenges. DeltaDock operates in a two-step process: rapid initial complex structures sampling followed by multi-scale iterative refinement of the initial structures. In the initial stage, to sample accurate structures with high efficiency, we develop a ligand-dependent binding site prediction model founded on large protein models and graph neural networks. This model is then paired with GPU-accelerated sampling algorithms. The sampled structures are updated using a multi-scale iterative refinement module that captures both protein-ligand atom-atom interactions and residue-atom interactions in the following stage. Distinct from previous geometric deep learning methods that are conditioned on the blind docking setting, DeltaDock demonstrates superior performance in both blind docking and site-specific docking settings. Comprehensive experimental results reveal that DeltaDock consistently surpasses baseline methods in terms of docking accuracy. Furthermore, it displays remarkable generalization capabilities and proficiency for predicting physically valid structures, thereby attesting to its robustness and reliability in various scenarios.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been the consensus for medical image segmentation tasks. However, they suffer from the limitation in modeling long-range dependencies and spatial correlations due to the nature of convolution operation. Although transformers were first developed to address this issue, they fail to capture low-level features. In contrast, it is demonstrated that both local and global features are crucial for dense prediction, such as segmenting in challenging contexts. In this paper, we propose HiFormer, a novel method that efficiently bridges a CNN and a transformer for medical image segmentation. Specifically, we design two multi-scale feature representations using the seminal Swin Transformer module and a CNN-based encoder. To secure a fine fusion of global and local features obtained from the two aforementioned representations, we propose a Double-Level Fusion (DLF) module in the skip connection of the encoder-decoder structure. Extensive experiments on various medical image segmentation datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of HiFormer over other CNN-based, transformer-based, and hybrid methods in terms of computational complexity, and quantitative and qualitative results. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/amirhossein-kz/HiFormer

Estimating accurate depth from a single image is challenging because it is an ill-posed problem as infinitely many 3D scenes can be projected to the same 2D scene. However, recent works based on deep convolutional neural networks show great progress with plausible results. The convolutional neural networks are generally composed of two parts: an encoder for dense feature extraction and a decoder for predicting the desired depth. In the encoder-decoder schemes, repeated strided convolution and spatial pooling layers lower the spatial resolution of transitional outputs, and several techniques such as skip connections or multi-layer deconvolutional networks are adopted to recover the original resolution for effective dense prediction. In this paper, for more effective guidance of densely encoded features to the desired depth prediction, we propose a network architecture that utilizes novel local planar guidance layers located at multiple stages in the decoding phase. We show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art works with significant margin evaluating on challenging benchmarks. We also provide results from an ablation study to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Models for audio source separation usually operate on the magnitude spectrum, which ignores phase information and makes separation performance dependant on hyper-parameters for the spectral front-end. Therefore, we investigate end-to-end source separation in the time-domain, which allows modelling phase information and avoids fixed spectral transformations. Due to high sampling rates for audio, employing a long temporal input context on the sample level is difficult, but required for high quality separation results because of long-range temporal correlations. In this context, we propose the Wave-U-Net, an adaptation of the U-Net to the one-dimensional time domain, which repeatedly resamples feature maps to compute and combine features at different time scales. We introduce further architectural improvements, including an output layer that enforces source additivity, an upsampling technique and a context-aware prediction framework to reduce output artifacts. Experiments for singing voice separation indicate that our architecture yields a performance comparable to a state-of-the-art spectrogram-based U-Net architecture, given the same data. Finally, we reveal a problem with outliers in the currently used SDR evaluation metrics and suggest reporting rank-based statistics to alleviate this problem.

The purpose of remote sensing image change detection (RSCD) is to detect differences between bi-temporal images taken at the same place. Deep learning has been extensively used to RSCD tasks, yielding significant results in terms of result recognition. However, due to the shooting angle of the satellite, the impacts of thin clouds, and certain lighting conditions, the problem of fuzzy edges in the change region in some remote sensing photographs cannot be properly handled using current RSCD algorithms. To solve this issue, we proposed a Body Decouple Multi-Scale by fearure Aggregation change detection (BD-MSA), a novel model that collects both global and local feature map information in the channel and space dimensions of the feature map during the training and prediction phases. This approach allows us to successfully extract the change region's boundary information while also divorcing the change region's main body from its boundary. Numerous studies have shown that the assessment metrics and evaluation effects of the model described in this paper on the publicly available datasets DSIFN-CD, S2Looking and WHU-CD are the best when compared to other models.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

Predicting salient regions in natural images requires the detection of objects that are present in a scene. To develop robust representations for this challenging task, high-level visual features at multiple spatial scales must be extracted and augmented with contextual information. However, existing models aimed at explaining human fixation maps do not incorporate such a mechanism explicitly. Here we propose an approach based on a convolutional neural network pre-trained on a large-scale image classification task. The architecture forms an encoder-decoder structure and includes a module with multiple convolutional layers at different dilation rates to capture multi-scale features in parallel. Moreover, we combine the resulting representations with global scene information for accurately predicting visual saliency. Our model achieves competitive and consistent results across multiple evaluation metrics on two public saliency benchmarks and we demonstrate the effectiveness of the suggested approach on five datasets and selected examples. Compared to state of the art approaches, the network is based on a lightweight image classification backbone and hence presents a suitable choice for applications with limited computational resources, such as (virtual) robotic systems, to estimate human fixations across complex natural scenes.

Recently, State Space Models (SSMs) with efficient hardware-aware designs, i.e., Mamba, have demonstrated significant potential in computer vision tasks due to their linear computational complexity with respect to token length and their global receptive field. However, Mamba's performance on dense prediction tasks, including human pose estimation and semantic segmentation, has been constrained by three key challenges: insufficient inductive bias, long-range forgetting, and low-resolution output representation. To address these challenges, we introduce the Dynamic Visual State Space (DVSS) block, which utilizes multi-scale convolutional kernels to extract local features across different scales and enhance inductive bias, and employs deformable convolution to mitigate the long-range forgetting problem while enabling adaptive spatial aggregation based on input and task-specific information. By leveraging the multi-resolution parallel design proposed in HRNet, we introduce High-Resolution Visual State Space Model (HRVMamba) based on the DVSS block, which preserves high-resolution representations throughout the entire process while promoting effective multi-scale feature learning. Extensive experiments highlight HRVMamba's impressive performance on dense prediction tasks, achieving competitive results against existing benchmark models without bells and whistles. Code is available at https://github.com/zhanghao5201/HRVMamba.

Dense prediction tasks hold significant importance of computer vision, aiming to learn pixel-wise annotated label for an input image. Despite advances in this field, existing methods primarily focus on idealized conditions, with limited generalization to real-world scenarios and facing the challenging scarcity of real-world data. To systematically study this problem, we first introduce DenseWorld, a benchmark spanning a broad set of 25 dense prediction tasks that correspond to urgent real-world applications, featuring unified evaluation across tasks. Then, we propose DenseDiT, which maximally exploits generative models' visual priors to perform diverse real-world dense prediction tasks through a unified strategy. DenseDiT combines a parameter-reuse mechanism and two lightweight branches that adaptively integrate multi-scale context, working with less than 0.1% additional parameters. Evaluations on DenseWorld reveal significant performance drops in existing general and specialized baselines, highlighting their limited real-world generalization. In contrast, DenseDiT achieves superior results using less than 0.01% training data of baselines, underscoring its practical value for real-world deployment. Our data, and checkpoints and codes are available at https://xcltql666.github.io/DenseDiTProj

We present PREMISE (PREdict with Matching ScorEs), a new architecture for the matching-based learning in the multimodal fields for the multimodal review helpfulness (MRHP) task. Distinct to previous fusion-based methods which obtains multimodal representations via cross-modal attention for downstream tasks, PREMISE computes the multi-scale and multi-field representations, filters duplicated semantics, and then obtained a set of matching scores as feature vectors for the downstream recommendation task. This new architecture significantly boosts the performance for such multimodal tasks whose context matching content are highly correlated to the targets of that task, compared to the state-of-the-art fusion-based methods. Experimental results on two publicly available datasets show that PREMISE achieves promising performance with less computational cost.

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

The early prediction of battery life (EPBL) is vital for enhancing the efficiency and extending the lifespan of lithium batteries. Traditional models with fixed architectures often encounter underfitting or overfitting issues due to the diverse data distributions in different EPBL tasks. An interpretable deep learning model of flexible parallel neural network (FPNN) is proposed, which includes an InceptionBlock, a 3D convolutional neural network (CNN), a 2D CNN, and a dual-stream network. The proposed model effectively extracts electrochemical features from video-like formatted data using the 3D CNN and achieves advanced multi-scale feature abstraction through the InceptionBlock. The FPNN can adaptively adjust the number of InceptionBlocks to flexibly handle tasks of varying complexity in EPBL. The test on the MIT dataset shows that the FPNN model achieves outstanding predictive accuracy in EPBL tasks, with MAPEs of 2.47%, 1.29%, 1.08%, and 0.88% when the input cyclic data volumes are 10, 20, 30, and 40, respectively. The interpretability of the FPNN is mainly reflected in its flexible unit structure and parameter selection: its diverse branching structure enables the model to capture features at different scales, thus allowing the machine to learn informative features. The approach presented herein provides an accurate, adaptable, and comprehensible solution for early life prediction of lithium batteries, opening new possibilities in the field of battery health monitoring.

Weed management represents a critical challenge in agriculture, significantly impacting crop yields and requiring substantial resources for control. Effective weed monitoring and analysis strategies are crucial for implementing sustainable agricultural practices and site-specific management approaches. We introduce WeedSense, a novel multi-task learning architecture for comprehensive weed analysis that jointly performs semantic segmentation, height estimation, and growth stage classification. We present a unique dataset capturing 16 weed species over an 11-week growth cycle with pixel-level annotations, height measurements, and temporal labels. WeedSense leverages a dual-path encoder incorporating Universal Inverted Bottleneck blocks and a Multi-Task Bifurcated Decoder with transformer-based feature fusion to generate multi-scale features and enable simultaneous prediction across multiple tasks. WeedSense outperforms other state-of-the-art models on our comprehensive evaluation. On our multi-task dataset, WeedSense achieves mIoU of 89.78% for segmentation, 1.67cm MAE for height estimation, and 99.99% accuracy for growth stage classification while maintaining real-time inference at 160 FPS. Our multitask approach achieves 3times faster inference than sequential single-task execution and uses 32.4% fewer parameters. Please see our project page at weedsense.github.io.

Weakly supervised person search aims to jointly detect and match persons with only bounding box annotations. Existing approaches typically focus on improving the features by exploring relations of persons. However, scale variation problem is a more severe obstacle and under-studied that a person often owns images with different scales (resolutions). On the one hand, small-scale images contain less information of a person, thus affecting the accuracy of the generated pseudo labels. On the other hand, the similarity of cross-scale images is often smaller than that of images with the same scale for a person, which will increase the difficulty of matching. In this paper, we address this problem by proposing a novel one-step framework, named Self-similarity driven Scale-invariant Learning (SSL). Scale invariance can be explored based on the self-similarity prior that it shows the same statistical properties of an image at different scales. To this end, we introduce a Multi-scale Exemplar Branch to guide the network in concentrating on the foreground and learning scale-invariant features by hard exemplars mining. To enhance the discriminative power of the features in an unsupervised manner, we introduce a dynamic multi-label prediction which progressively seeks true labels for training. It is adaptable to different types of unlabeled data and serves as a compensation for clustering based strategy. Experiments on PRW and CUHK-SYSU databases demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Accurately perceiving instances and predicting their future motion are key tasks for autonomous vehicles, enabling them to navigate safely in complex urban traffic. While bird's-eye view (BEV) representations are commonplace in perception for autonomous driving, their potential in a motion prediction setting is less explored. Existing approaches for BEV instance prediction from surround cameras rely on a multi-task auto-regressive setup coupled with complex post-processing to predict future instances in a spatio-temporally consistent manner. In this paper, we depart from this paradigm and propose an efficient novel end-to-end framework named POWERBEV, which differs in several design choices aimed at reducing the inherent redundancy in previous methods. First, rather than predicting the future in an auto-regressive fashion, POWERBEV uses a parallel, multi-scale module built from lightweight 2D convolutional networks. Second, we show that segmentation and centripetal backward flow are sufficient for prediction, simplifying previous multi-task objectives by eliminating redundant output modalities. Building on this output representation, we propose a simple, flow warping-based post-processing approach which produces more stable instance associations across time. Through this lightweight yet powerful design, POWERBEV outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on the NuScenes Dataset and poses an alternative paradigm for BEV instance prediction. We made our code publicly available at: https://github.com/EdwardLeeLPZ/PowerBEV.

In biological research, fluorescence staining is a key technique to reveal the locations and morphology of subcellular structures. However, it is slow, expensive, and harmful to cells. In this paper, we model it as a deep learning task termed subcellular structure prediction (SSP), aiming to predict the 3D fluorescent images of multiple subcellular structures from a 3D transmitted-light image. Unfortunately, due to the limitations of current biotechnology, each image is partially labeled in SSP. Besides, naturally, subcellular structures vary considerably in size, which causes the multi-scale issue of SSP. To overcome these challenges, we propose Re-parameterizing Mixture-of-Diverse-Experts (RepMode), a network that dynamically organizes its parameters with task-aware priors to handle specified single-label prediction tasks. In RepMode, the Mixture-of-Diverse-Experts (MoDE) block is designed to learn the generalized parameters for all tasks, and gating re-parameterization (GatRep) is performed to generate the specialized parameters for each task, by which RepMode can maintain a compact practical topology exactly like a plain network, and meanwhile achieves a powerful theoretical topology. Comprehensive experiments show that RepMode can achieve state-of-the-art overall performance in SSP.

This work addresses a new challenge of understanding human nonverbal interaction in social contexts. Nonverbal signals pervade virtually every communicative act. Our gestures, facial expressions, postures, gaze, even physical appearance all convey messages, without anything being said. Despite their critical role in social life, nonverbal signals receive very limited attention as compared to the linguistic counterparts, and existing solutions typically examine nonverbal cues in isolation. Our study marks the first systematic effort to enhance the interpretation of multifaceted nonverbal signals. First, we contribute a novel large-scale dataset, called NVI, which is meticulously annotated to include bounding boxes for humans and corresponding social groups, along with 22 atomic-level nonverbal behaviors under five broad interaction types. Second, we establish a new task NVI-DET for nonverbal interaction detection, which is formalized as identifying triplets in the form <individual, group, interaction> from images. Third, we propose a nonverbal interaction detection hypergraph (NVI-DEHR), a new approach that explicitly models high-order nonverbal interactions using hypergraphs. Central to the model is a dual multi-scale hypergraph that adeptly addresses individual-to-individual and group-to-group correlations across varying scales, facilitating interactional feature learning and eventually improving interaction prediction. Extensive experiments on NVI show that NVI-DEHR improves various baselines significantly in NVI-DET. It also exhibits leading performance on HOI-DET, confirming its versatility in supporting related tasks and strong generalization ability. We hope that our study will offer the community new avenues to explore nonverbal signals in more depth.

Recent approaches to multi-task learning (MTL) have focused on modelling connections between tasks at the decoder level. This leads to a tight coupling between tasks, which need retraining if a new task is inserted or removed. We argue that MTL is a stepping stone towards universal feature learning (UFL), which is the ability to learn generic features that can be applied to new tasks without retraining. We propose Medusa to realize this goal, designing task heads with dual attention mechanisms. The shared feature attention masks relevant backbone features for each task, allowing it to learn a generic representation. Meanwhile, a novel Multi-Scale Attention head allows the network to better combine per-task features from different scales when making the final prediction. We show the effectiveness of Medusa in UFL (+13.18% improvement), while maintaining MTL performance and being 25% more efficient than previous approaches.

On-the-fly 3D reconstruction from monocular image sequences is a long-standing challenge in computer vision, critical for applications such as real-to-sim, AR/VR, and robotics. Existing methods face a major tradeoff: per-scene optimization yields high fidelity but is computationally expensive, whereas feed-forward foundation models enable real-time inference but struggle with accuracy and robustness. In this work, we propose ARTDECO, a unified framework that combines the efficiency of feed-forward models with the reliability of SLAM-based pipelines. ARTDECO uses 3D foundation models for pose estimation and point prediction, coupled with a Gaussian decoder that transforms multi-scale features into structured 3D Gaussians. To sustain both fidelity and efficiency at scale, we design a hierarchical Gaussian representation with a LoD-aware rendering strategy, which improves rendering fidelity while reducing redundancy. Experiments on eight diverse indoor and outdoor benchmarks show that ARTDECO delivers interactive performance comparable to SLAM, robustness similar to feed-forward systems, and reconstruction quality close to per-scene optimization, providing a practical path toward on-the-fly digitization of real-world environments with both accurate geometry and high visual fidelity. Explore more demos on our project page: https://city-super.github.io/artdeco/.

We present a foundation model for zero-shot metric monocular depth estimation. Our model, Depth Pro, synthesizes high-resolution depth maps with unparalleled sharpness and high-frequency details. The predictions are metric, with absolute scale, without relying on the availability of metadata such as camera intrinsics. And the model is fast, producing a 2.25-megapixel depth map in 0.3 seconds on a standard GPU. These characteristics are enabled by a number of technical contributions, including an efficient multi-scale vision transformer for dense prediction, a training protocol that combines real and synthetic datasets to achieve high metric accuracy alongside fine boundary tracing, dedicated evaluation metrics for boundary accuracy in estimated depth maps, and state-of-the-art focal length estimation from a single image. Extensive experiments analyze specific design choices and demonstrate that Depth Pro outperforms prior work along multiple dimensions. We release code and weights at https://github.com/apple/ml-depth-pro

We develop a new edge detection algorithm that tackles two important issues in this long-standing vision problem: (1) holistic image training and prediction; and (2) multi-scale and multi-level feature learning. Our proposed method, holistically-nested edge detection (HED), performs image-to-image prediction by means of a deep learning model that leverages fully convolutional neural networks and deeply-supervised nets. HED automatically learns rich hierarchical representations (guided by deep supervision on side responses) that are important in order to approach the human ability resolve the challenging ambiguity in edge and object boundary detection. We significantly advance the state-of-the-art on the BSD500 dataset (ODS F-score of .782) and the NYU Depth dataset (ODS F-score of .746), and do so with an improved speed (0.4 second per image) that is orders of magnitude faster than some recent CNN-based edge detection algorithms.

Language models (LMs) have demonstrated the capability to handle a variety of generative tasks. This paper presents the UniAudio system, which, unlike prior task-specific approaches, leverages LMs techniques to generate multiple types of audio (including speech, sounds, music, and singing) with given input conditions. UniAudio 1) first tokenizes all types of target audio along with other condition modalities, 2) concatenates source-target pair as a single sequence, and 3) performs next-token prediction using LMs. Also, a multi-scale Transformer model is proposed to handle the overly long sequences caused by the residual vector quantization based neural codec in tokenization. Training of UniAudio is scaled up to 165K hours of audio and 1B parameters, based on all generative tasks, aiming to obtain sufficient prior knowledge not only in the intrinsic properties of audio but also the inter-relationship between audio and other modalities. Therefore, the trained UniAudio model has the potential to become a foundation model for universal audio generation: it shows strong capability in all trained tasks and can seamlessly support new audio generation tasks after simple fine-tuning. Experiments demonstrate that UniAudio achieves state-of-the-art or at least competitive results on most of the 11 tasks. Demo and code are released at https://github.com/yangdongchao/UniAudio

Visuomotor policy learning has witnessed substantial progress in robotic manipulation, with recent approaches predominantly relying on generative models to model the action distribution. However, these methods often overlook the critical coupling between visual perception and action prediction. In this work, we introduce Triply-Hierarchical Diffusion Policy~(H^{\mathbf{3}DP}), a novel visuomotor learning framework that explicitly incorporates hierarchical structures to strengthen the integration between visual features and action generation. H^{3}DP contains 3 levels of hierarchy: (1) depth-aware input layering that organizes RGB-D observations based on depth information; (2) multi-scale visual representations that encode semantic features at varying levels of granularity; and (3) a hierarchically conditioned diffusion process that aligns the generation of coarse-to-fine actions with corresponding visual features. Extensive experiments demonstrate that H^{3}DP yields a +27.5% average relative improvement over baselines across 44 simulation tasks and achieves superior performance in 4 challenging bimanual real-world manipulation tasks. Project Page: https://lyy-iiis.github.io/h3dp/.

Remote sensing has become critical for understanding environmental dynamics, urban planning, and disaster management. However, traditional remote sensing workflows often rely on explicit segmentation or detection methods, which struggle to handle complex, implicit queries that require reasoning over spatial context, domain knowledge, and implicit user intent. Motivated by this, we introduce a new task, \ie, geospatial pixel reasoning, which allows implicit querying and reasoning and generates the mask of the target region. To advance this task, we construct and release the first large-scale benchmark dataset called EarthReason, which comprises 5,434 manually annotated image masks with over 30,000 implicit question-answer pairs. Moreover, we propose SegEarth-R1, a simple yet effective language-guided segmentation baseline that integrates a hierarchical visual encoder, a large language model (LLM) for instruction parsing, and a tailored mask generator for spatial correlation. The design of SegEarth-R1 incorporates domain-specific adaptations, including aggressive visual token compression to handle ultra-high-resolution remote sensing images, a description projection module to fuse language and multi-scale features, and a streamlined mask prediction pipeline that directly queries description embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SegEarth-R1 achieves state-of-the-art performance on both reasoning and referring segmentation tasks, significantly outperforming traditional and LLM-based segmentation methods. Our data and code will be released at https://github.com/earth-insights/SegEarth-R1.

Note-level Automatic Singing Voice Transcription (AST) converts singing recordings into note sequences, facilitating the automatic annotation of singing datasets for Singing Voice Synthesis (SVS) applications. Current AST methods, however, struggle with accuracy and robustness when used for practical annotation. This paper presents ROSVOT, the first robust AST model that serves SVS, incorporating a multi-scale framework that effectively captures coarse-grained note information and ensures fine-grained frame-level segmentation, coupled with an attention-based pitch decoder for reliable pitch prediction. We also established a comprehensive annotation-and-training pipeline for SVS to test the model in real-world settings. Experimental findings reveal that ROSVOT achieves state-of-the-art transcription accuracy with either clean or noisy inputs. Moreover, when trained on enlarged, automatically annotated datasets, the SVS model outperforms its baseline, affirming the capability for practical application. Audio samples are available at https://rosvot.github.io.

The transformer architecture has revolutionized bioinformatics and driven progress in the understanding and prediction of the properties of biomolecules. Almost all research on large-scale biosequence transformers has focused on one domain at a time (single-omic), usually nucleotides or peptides. These models have seen incredible success in downstream tasks in each domain and have achieved particularly noteworthy breakthroughs in sequences of peptides and structural modeling. However, these single-omic models are naturally incapable of modeling multi-omic tasks, one of the most biologically critical being nucleotide-peptide interactions. We present our work training the first multi-omic nucleotide-peptide foundation models. We show that these multi-omic models (MOMs) can learn joint representations between various single-omic distributions that are emergently consistent with the Central Dogma of molecular biology, despite only being trained on unlabeled biosequences. We further demonstrate that MOMs can be fine-tuned to achieve state-of-the-art results on peptide-nucleotide interaction tasks, namely predicting the change in Gibbs free energy ({\Delta}G) of the binding interaction between a given oligonucleotide and peptide, as well as the effect on this binding interaction due to mutations in the oligonucleotide sequence ({\Delta}{\Delta}G). Remarkably, we show that multi-omic biosequence transformers emergently learn useful structural information without any prior structural training, allowing us to predict which peptide residues are most involved in the peptide-nucleotide binding interaction. Lastly, we provide evidence that multi-omic biosequence models are non-inferior to foundation models trained on single-omics distributions, suggesting a more generalized or foundational approach to building these models.

Docking is a crucial component in drug discovery aimed at predicting the binding conformation and affinity between small molecules and target proteins. ML-based docking has recently emerged as a prominent approach, outpacing traditional methods like DOCK and AutoDock Vina in handling the growing scale and complexity of molecular libraries. However, the availability of comprehensive and user-friendly datasets for training and benchmarking ML-based docking algorithms remains limited. We introduce Smiles2Dock, an open large-scale multi-task dataset for molecular docking. We created a framework combining P2Rank and AutoDock Vina to dock 1.7 million ligands from the ChEMBL database against 15 AlphaFold proteins, giving us more than 25 million protein-ligand binding scores. The dataset leverages a wide range of high-accuracy AlphaFold protein models, encompasses a diverse set of biologically relevant compounds and enables researchers to benchmark all major approaches for ML-based docking such as Graph, Transformer and CNN-based methods. We also introduce a novel Transformer-based architecture for docking scores prediction and set it as an initial benchmark for our dataset. Our dataset and code are publicly available to support the development of novel ML-based methods for molecular docking to advance scientific research in this field.

Earlier diagnosis of Leukemia can save thousands of lives annually. The prognosis of leukemia is challenging without the morphological information of White Blood Cells (WBC) and relies on the accessibility of expensive microscopes and the availability of hematologists to analyze Peripheral Blood Samples (PBS). Deep Learning based methods can be employed to assist hematologists. However, these algorithms require a large amount of labeled data, which is not readily available. To overcome this limitation, we have acquired a realistic, generalized, and large dataset. To collect this comprehensive dataset for real-world applications, two microscopes from two different cost spectrums (high-cost HCM and low-cost LCM) are used for dataset capturing at three magnifications (100x, 40x, 10x) through different sensors (high-end camera for HCM, middle-level camera for LCM and mobile-phone camera for both). The high-sensor camera is 47 times more expensive than the middle-level camera and HCM is 17 times more expensive than LCM. In this collection, using HCM at high resolution (100x), experienced hematologists annotated 10.3k WBC types (14) and artifacts, having 55k morphological labels (Cell Size, Nuclear Chromatin, Nuclear Shape, etc.) from 2.4k images of several PBS leukemia patients. Later on, these annotations are transferred to other 2 magnifications of HCM, and 3 magnifications of LCM, and on each camera captured images. Along with the LeukemiaAttri dataset, we provide baselines over multiple object detectors and Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) strategies, along with morphological information-based attribute prediction. The dataset will be publicly available after publication to facilitate the research in this direction.

This paper introduces M^{3}-20M, a large-scale Multi-Modal Molecular dataset that contains over 20 million molecules. Designed to support AI-driven drug design and discovery, M^{3}-20M is 71 times more in the number of molecules than the largest existing dataset, providing an unprecedented scale that can highly benefit training or fine-tuning large (language) models with superior performance for drug design and discovery. This dataset integrates one-dimensional SMILES, two-dimensional molecular graphs, three-dimensional molecular structures, physicochemical properties, and textual descriptions collected through web crawling and generated by using GPT-3.5, offering a comprehensive view of each molecule. To demonstrate the power of M^{3}-20M in drug design and discovery, we conduct extensive experiments on two key tasks: molecule generation and molecular property prediction, using large language models including GLM4, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4. Our experimental results show that M^{3}-20M can significantly boost model performance in both tasks. Specifically, it enables the models to generate more diverse and valid molecular structures and achieve higher property prediction accuracy than the existing single-modal datasets, which validates the value and potential of M^{3}-20M in supporting AI-driven drug design and discovery. The dataset is available at https://github.com/bz99bz/M-3.

This paper presents the first large-scale multi-species dataset of acoustic recordings of mosquitoes tracked continuously in free flight. We present 20 hours of audio recordings that we have expertly labelled and tagged precisely in time. Significantly, 18 hours of recordings contain annotations from 36 different species. Mosquitoes are well-known carriers of diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever. Collecting this dataset is motivated by the need to assist applications which utilise mosquito acoustics to conduct surveys to help predict outbreaks and inform intervention policy. The task of detecting mosquitoes from the sound of their wingbeats is challenging due to the difficulty in collecting recordings from realistic scenarios. To address this, as part of the HumBug project, we conducted global experiments to record mosquitoes ranging from those bred in culture cages to mosquitoes captured in the wild. Consequently, the audio recordings vary in signal-to-noise ratio and contain a broad range of indoor and outdoor background environments from Tanzania, Thailand, Kenya, the USA and the UK. In this paper we describe in detail how we collected, labelled and curated the data. The data is provided from a PostgreSQL database, which contains important metadata such as the capture method, age, feeding status and gender of the mosquitoes. Additionally, we provide code to extract features and train Bayesian convolutional neural networks for two key tasks: the identification of mosquitoes from their corresponding background environments, and the classification of detected mosquitoes into species. Our extensive dataset is both challenging to machine learning researchers focusing on acoustic identification, and critical to entomologists, geo-spatial modellers and other domain experts to understand mosquito behaviour, model their distribution, and manage the threat they pose to humans.

Numerous biological and physical processes can be modeled as systems of interacting entities evolving continuously over time, e.g. the dynamics of communicating cells or physical particles. Learning the dynamics of such systems is essential for predicting the temporal evolution of populations across novel samples and unseen environments. Flow-based models allow for learning these dynamics at the population level - they model the evolution of the entire distribution of samples. However, current flow-based models are limited to a single initial population and a set of predefined conditions which describe different dynamics. We argue that multiple processes in natural sciences have to be represented as vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold of probability densities. That is, the change of the population at any moment in time depends on the population itself due to the interactions between samples. In particular, this is crucial for personalized medicine where the development of diseases and their respective treatment response depends on the microenvironment of cells specific to each patient. We propose Meta Flow Matching (MFM), a practical approach to integrating along these vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold by amortizing the flow model over the initial populations. Namely, we embed the population of samples using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and use these embeddings to train a Flow Matching model. This gives MFM the ability to generalize over the initial distributions unlike previously proposed methods. We demonstrate the ability of MFM to improve prediction of individual treatment responses on a large scale multi-patient single-cell drug screen dataset.

Understanding where people go after visiting one business is crucial for urban planning, retail analytics, and location-based services. However, predicting these co-visitation patterns across millions of venues remains challenging due to extreme data sparsity and the complex interplay between spatial proximity and business relationships. Traditional approaches using only geographic distance fail to capture why coffee shops attract different customer flows than fine dining restaurants, even when co-located. We introduce NAICS-aware GraphSAGE, a novel graph neural network that integrates business taxonomy knowledge through learnable embeddings to predict population-scale co-visitation patterns. Our key insight is that business semantics, captured through detailed industry codes, provide crucial signals that pure spatial models cannot explain. The approach scales to massive datasets (4.2 billion potential venue pairs) through efficient state-wise decomposition while combining spatial, temporal, and socioeconomic features in an end-to-end framework. Evaluated on our POI-Graph dataset comprising 94.9 million co-visitation records across 92,486 brands and 48 US states, our method achieves significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines: the R-squared value increases from 0.243 to 0.625 (a 157 percent improvement), with strong gains in ranking quality (32 percent improvement in NDCG at 10).

Understanding protein solubility is essential for their functional applications. Computational methods for predicting protein solubility are crucial for reducing experimental costs and enhancing the efficiency and success rates of protein engineering. Existing methods either construct a supervised learning scheme on small-scale datasets with manually processed physicochemical properties, or blindly apply pre-trained protein language models to extract amino acid interaction information. The scale and quality of available training datasets leave significant room for improvement in terms of accuracy and generalization. To address these research gaps, we propose \sol, a novel deep learning method that combines pre-training and fine-tuning schemes for protein solubility prediction. ProtSolM integrates information from multiple dimensions, including physicochemical properties, amino acid sequences, and protein backbone structures. Our model is trained using \data, the largest solubility dataset that we have constructed. PDBSol includes over 60,000 protein sequences and structures. We provide a comprehensive leaderboard of existing statistical learning and deep learning methods on independent datasets with computational and experimental labels. ProtSolM achieved state-of-the-art performance across various evaluation metrics, demonstrating its potential to significantly advance the accuracy of protein solubility prediction.

Efficient and accurate motion prediction is crucial for ensuring safety and informed decision-making in autonomous driving, particularly under dynamic real-world conditions that necessitate multi-modal forecasts. We introduce TrajFlow, a novel flow matching-based motion prediction framework that addresses the scalability and efficiency challenges of existing generative trajectory prediction methods. Unlike conventional generative approaches that employ i.i.d. sampling and require multiple inference passes to capture diverse outcomes, TrajFlow predicts multiple plausible future trajectories in a single pass, significantly reducing computational overhead while maintaining coherence across predictions. Moreover, we propose a ranking loss based on the Plackett-Luce distribution to improve uncertainty estimation of predicted trajectories. Additionally, we design a self-conditioning training technique that reuses the model's own predictions to construct noisy inputs during a second forward pass, thereby improving generalization and accelerating inference. Extensive experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD) demonstrate that TrajFlow achieves state-of-the-art performance across various key metrics, underscoring its effectiveness for safety-critical autonomous driving applications. The code and other details are available on the project website https://traj-flow.github.io/.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Discontinuing ad creatives at an appropriate time is one of the most important ad operations that can have a significant impact on sales. Such operational support for ineffective ads has been less explored than that for effective ads. After pre-analyzing 1,000,000 real-world ad creatives, we found that there are two types of discontinuation: short-term (i.e., cut-out) and long-term (i.e., wear-out). In this paper, we propose a practical prediction framework for the discontinuation of ad creatives with a hazard function-based loss function inspired by survival analysis. Our framework predicts the discontinuations with a multi-modal deep neural network that takes as input the ad creative (e.g., text, categorical, image, numerical features). To improve the prediction performance for the two different types of discontinuations and for the ad creatives that contribute to sales, we introduce two new techniques: (1) a two-term estimation technique with multi-task learning and (2) a click-through rate-weighting technique for the loss function. We evaluated our framework using the large-scale ad creative dataset, including 10 billion scale impressions. In terms of the concordance index (short: 0.896, long: 0.939, and overall: 0.792), our framework achieved significantly better performance than the conventional method (0.531). Additionally, we confirmed that our framework (i) demonstrated the same degree of discontinuation effect as manual operations for short-term cases, and (ii) accurately predicted the ad discontinuation order, which is important for long-running ad creatives for long-term cases.

With the growing complexity and dynamics of the mobile communication networks, accurately predicting key system parameters, such as channel state information (CSI), user location, and network traffic, has become essential for a wide range of physical (PHY)-layer and medium access control (MAC)-layer tasks. Although traditional deep learning (DL)-based methods have been widely applied to such prediction tasks, they often struggle to generalize across different scenarios and tasks. In response, we propose a unified foundation model for multi-task prediction in wireless networks that supports diverse prediction intervals. The proposed model enforces univariate decomposition to unify heterogeneous tasks, encodes granularity for interval awareness, and uses a causal Transformer backbone for accurate predictions. Additionally, we introduce a patch masking strategy during training to support arbitrary input lengths. After trained on large-scale datasets, the proposed foundation model demonstrates strong generalization to unseen scenarios and achieves zero-shot performance on new tasks that surpass traditional full-shot baselines.

Multilingual self-supervised learning (SSL) has often lagged behind state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods due to the expenses and complexity required to handle many languages. This further harms the reproducibility of SSL, which is already limited to few research groups due to its resource usage. We show that more powerful techniques can actually lead to more efficient pre-training, opening SSL to more research groups. We propose WavLabLM, which extends WavLM's joint prediction and denoising to 40k hours of data across 136 languages. To build WavLabLM, we devise a novel multi-stage pre-training method, designed to address the language imbalance of multilingual data. WavLabLM achieves comparable performance to XLS-R on ML-SUPERB with less than 10% of the training data, making SSL realizable with academic compute. We show that further efficiency can be achieved with a vanilla HuBERT Base model, which can maintain 94% of XLS-R's performance with only 3% of the data, 4 GPUs, and limited trials. We open-source all code and models in ESPnet.

Recent vision-language-action (VLA) models built on pretrained vision-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated strong generalization across manipulation tasks. However, they remain constrained by a single-frame observation paradigm and cannot fully benefit from the motion information offered by aggregated multi-frame historical observations, as the large vision-language backbone introduces substantial computational cost and inference latency. We propose CronusVLA, a unified framework that extends single-frame VLA models to the multi-frame paradigm through an efficient post-training stage. CronusVLA comprises three key components: (1) single-frame pretraining on large-scale embodied datasets with autoregressive action tokens prediction, which establishes an embodied vision-language foundation; (2) multi-frame encoding, adapting the prediction of vision-language backbones from discrete action tokens to motion features during post-training, and aggregating motion features from historical frames into a feature chunking; (3) cross-frame decoding, which maps the feature chunking to accurate actions via a shared decoder with cross-attention. By reducing redundant token computation and caching past motion features, CronusVLA achieves efficient inference. As an application of motion features, we further propose an action adaptation mechanism based on feature-action retrieval to improve model performance during finetuning. CronusVLA achieves state-of-the-art performance on SimplerEnv with 70.9% success rate, and 12.7% improvement over OpenVLA on LIBERO. Real-world Franka experiments also show the strong performance and robustness.

Developing open-source foundation models is essential for advancing research in music audio understanding and ensuring access to powerful, multipurpose representations for music information retrieval. We present OMAR-RQ, a model trained with self-supervision via masked token classification methodologies using a large-scale dataset with over 330,000 hours of music audio. We experiment with different input features and quantization options, and achieve state-of-the-art performance in music tagging, pitch estimation, chord recognition, beat tracking, segmentation, and difficulty estimation among open self-supervised models. We open-source our training and evaluation pipelines and model weights, available at https://github.com/mtg/omar-rq.

Automated brain structure segmentation is important to many clinical quantitative analysis and diagnoses. In this work, we introduce MixNet, a 2D semantic-wise deep convolutional neural network to segment brain structure in multi-modality MRI images. The network is composed of our modified deep residual learning units. In the unit, we replace the traditional convolution layer with the dilated convolutional layer, which avoids the use of pooling layers and deconvolutional layers, reducing the number of network parameters. Final predictions are made by aggregating information from multiple scales and modalities. A pyramid pooling module is used to capture spatial information of the anatomical structures at the output end. In addition, we test three architectures (MixNetv1, MixNetv2 and MixNetv3) which fuse the modalities differently to see the effect on the results. Our network achieves the state-of-the-art performance. MixNetv2 was submitted to the MRBrainS challenge at MICCAI 2018 and won the 3rd place in the 3-label task. On the MRBrainS2018 dataset, which includes subjects with a variety of pathologies, the overall DSC (Dice Coefficient) of 84.7% (gray matter), 87.3% (white matter) and 83.4% (cerebrospinal fluid) were obtained with only 7 subjects as training data.

We present TartanDrive, a large scale dataset for learning dynamics models for off-road driving. We collected a dataset of roughly 200,000 off-road driving interactions on a modified Yamaha Viking ATV with seven unique sensing modalities in diverse terrains. To the authors' knowledge, this is the largest real-world multi-modal off-road driving dataset, both in terms of number of interactions and sensing modalities. We also benchmark several state-of-the-art methods for model-based reinforcement learning from high-dimensional observations on this dataset. We find that extending these models to multi-modality leads to significant performance on off-road dynamics prediction, especially in more challenging terrains. We also identify some shortcomings with current neural network architectures for the off-road driving task. Our dataset is available at https://github.com/castacks/tartan_drive.

In this paper, we introduce PredBench, a benchmark tailored for the holistic evaluation of spatio-temporal prediction networks. Despite significant progress in this field, there remains a lack of a standardized framework for a detailed and comparative analysis of various prediction network architectures. PredBench addresses this gap by conducting large-scale experiments, upholding standardized and appropriate experimental settings, and implementing multi-dimensional evaluations. This benchmark integrates 12 widely adopted methods with 15 diverse datasets across multiple application domains, offering extensive evaluation of contemporary spatio-temporal prediction networks. Through meticulous calibration of prediction settings across various applications, PredBench ensures evaluations relevant to their intended use and enables fair comparisons. Moreover, its multi-dimensional evaluation framework broadens the analysis with a comprehensive set of metrics, providing deep insights into the capabilities of models. The findings from our research offer strategic directions for future developments in the field. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/OpenEarthLab/PredBench.

We present TartanGround, a large-scale, multi-modal dataset to advance the perception and autonomy of ground robots operating in diverse environments. This dataset, collected in various photorealistic simulation environments includes multiple RGB stereo cameras for 360-degree coverage, along with depth, optical flow, stereo disparity, LiDAR point clouds, ground truth poses, semantic segmented images, and occupancy maps with semantic labels. Data is collected using an integrated automatic pipeline, which generates trajectories mimicking the motion patterns of various ground robot platforms, including wheeled and legged robots. We collect 910 trajectories across 70 environments, resulting in 1.5 million samples. Evaluations on occupancy prediction and SLAM tasks reveal that state-of-the-art methods trained on existing datasets struggle to generalize across diverse scenes. TartanGround can serve as a testbed for training and evaluation of a broad range of learning-based tasks, including occupancy prediction, SLAM, neural scene representation, perception-based navigation, and more, enabling advancements in robotic perception and autonomy towards achieving robust models generalizable to more diverse scenarios. The dataset and codebase are available on the webpage: https://tartanair.org/tartanground

Feature interaction has long been a cornerstone of ranking models in large-scale recommender systems due to its proven effectiveness in capturing complex dependencies among features. However, existing feature interaction strategies face two critical challenges in industrial applications: (1) The vast number of categorical and sequential features makes exhaustive interaction computationally prohibitive, often resulting in optimization difficulties. (2) Real-world recommender systems typically involve multiple prediction objectives, yet most current approaches apply feature interaction modules prior to the multi-task learning layers. This late-fusion design overlooks task-specific feature dependencies and inherently limits the capacity of multi-task modeling. To address these limitations, we propose the Information Flow Network (INFNet), a task-aware architecture designed for large-scale recommendation scenarios. INFNet distinguishes features into three token types, categorical tokens, sequence tokens, and task tokens, and introduces a novel dual-flow design comprising heterogeneous and homogeneous alternating information blocks. For heterogeneous information flow, we employ a cross-attention mechanism with proxy that facilitates efficient cross-modal token interaction with balanced computational cost. For homogeneous flow, we design type-specific Proxy Gated Units (PGUs) to enable fine-grained intra-type feature processing. Extensive experiments on multiple offline benchmarks confirm that INFNet achieves state-of-the-art performance. Moreover, INFNet has been successfully deployed in a commercial online advertising system, yielding significant gains of +1.587% in Revenue (REV) and +1.155% in Click-Through Rate (CTR).

Many real-world multi-label prediction problems involve set-valued predictions that must satisfy specific requirements dictated by downstream usage. We focus on a typical scenario where such requirements, separately encoding value and cost, compete with each other. For instance, a hospital might expect a smart diagnosis system to capture as many severe, often co-morbid, diseases as possible (the value), while maintaining strict control over incorrect predictions (the cost). We present a general pipeline, dubbed as FavMac, to maximize the value while controlling the cost in such scenarios. FavMac can be combined with almost any multi-label classifier, affording distribution-free theoretical guarantees on cost control. Moreover, unlike prior works, it can handle real-world large-scale applications via a carefully designed online update mechanism, which is of independent interest. Our methodological and theoretical contributions are supported by experiments on several healthcare tasks and synthetic datasets - FavMac furnishes higher value compared with several variants and baselines while maintaining strict cost control. Our code is available at https://github.com/zlin7/FavMac

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities, yet struggle with hallucination and outdated knowledge when tasked with complex knowledge reasoning, resulting in factually incorrect outputs. Previous studies have attempted to mitigate it by retrieving factual knowledge from large-scale knowledge graphs (KGs) to assist LLMs in logical reasoning and prediction of answers. However, this kind of approach often introduces noise and irrelevant data, especially in situations with extensive context from multiple knowledge aspects. In this way, LLM attention can be potentially mislead from question and relevant information. In our study, we introduce an Adaptive Multi-Aspect Retrieval-augmented over KGs (Amar) framework. This method retrieves knowledge including entities, relations, and subgraphs, and converts each piece of retrieved text into prompt embeddings. The Amar framework comprises two key sub-components: 1) a self-alignment module that aligns commonalities among entities, relations, and subgraphs to enhance retrieved text, thereby reducing noise interference; 2) a relevance gating module that employs a soft gate to learn the relevance score between question and multi-aspect retrieved data, to determine which information should be used to enhance LLMs' output, or even filtered altogether. Our method has achieved state-of-the-art performance on two common datasets, WebQSP and CWQ, showing a 1.9\% improvement in accuracy over its best competitor and a 6.6\% improvement in logical form generation over a method that directly uses retrieved text as context prompts. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of Amar in improving the reasoning of LLMs.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture is showing promising results in improving parameter sharing in multi-task learning (MTL) and in scaling high-capacity neural networks. State-of-the-art MoE models use a trainable sparse gate to select a subset of the experts for each input example. While conceptually appealing, existing sparse gates, such as Top-k, are not smooth. The lack of smoothness can lead to convergence and statistical performance issues when training with gradient-based methods. In this paper, we develop DSelect-k: a continuously differentiable and sparse gate for MoE, based on a novel binary encoding formulation. The gate can be trained using first-order methods, such as stochastic gradient descent, and offers explicit control over the number of experts to select. We demonstrate the effectiveness of DSelect-k on both synthetic and real MTL datasets with up to 128 tasks. Our experiments indicate that DSelect-k can achieve statistically significant improvements in prediction and expert selection over popular MoE gates. Notably, on a real-world, large-scale recommender system, DSelect-k achieves over 22% improvement in predictive performance compared to Top-k. We provide an open-source implementation of DSelect-k.

The ability to accurately represent sentences is central to language understanding. We describe a convolutional architecture dubbed the Dynamic Convolutional Neural Network (DCNN) that we adopt for the semantic modelling of sentences. The network uses Dynamic k-Max Pooling, a global pooling operation over linear sequences. The network handles input sentences of varying length and induces a feature graph over the sentence that is capable of explicitly capturing short and long-range relations. The network does not rely on a parse tree and is easily applicable to any language. We test the DCNN in four experiments: small scale binary and multi-class sentiment prediction, six-way question classification and Twitter sentiment prediction by distant supervision. The network achieves excellent performance in the first three tasks and a greater than 25% error reduction in the last task with respect to the strongest baseline.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for time series analysis, driven by large-scale pretraining on diverse data corpora. However, time series inherently exhibit heterogeneous information density over time, influenced by system states and signal complexity, presenting significant modeling challenges especially in a zero-shot scenario. Current TSFMs rely on non-adaptive processing pipelines that fail to capture this dynamic nature. For example, common tokenization strategies such as fixed-size patching enforce rigid observational granularity, limiting their ability to adapt to varying information densities. Similarly, conventional positional encodings impose a uniform temporal scale, making it difficult to model diverse periodicities and trends across series. To overcome these limitations, we propose Kairos, a flexible TSFM framework that integrates a dynamic patching tokenizer and an instance-adaptive positional embedding. Kairos adaptively selects tokenization granularity and tailors positional encodings to the unique characteristics of each time series instance. Trained on a large-scale Predictability-Stratified Time Series (PreSTS) corpus comprising over 300 billion time points and adopting a multi-patch prediction strategy in the inference stage, Kairos achieves superior performance with much fewer parameters on two common zero-shot benchmarks, GIFT-Eval and the Time-Series-Library benchmark, consistently outperforming established methods across diverse tasks. The project page is at https://foundation-model-research.github.io/Kairos .

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been applied to autonomous driving to support decision-making in complex real-world scenarios. However, their training on static, web-sourced image-text pairs fundamentally limits the precise spatiotemporal reasoning required to understand and predict dynamic traffic scenes. We address this critical gap with STRIDE-QA, a large-scale visual question answering (VQA) dataset for physically grounded reasoning from an ego-centric perspective. Constructed from 100 hours of multi-sensor driving data in Tokyo, capturing diverse and challenging conditions, STRIDE-QA is the largest VQA dataset for spatiotemporal reasoning in urban driving, offering 16 million QA pairs over 285K frames. Grounded by dense, automatically generated annotations including 3D bounding boxes, segmentation masks, and multi-object tracks, the dataset uniquely supports both object-centric and ego-centric reasoning through three novel QA tasks that require spatial localization and temporal prediction. Our benchmarks demonstrate that existing VLMs struggle significantly, achieving near-zero scores on prediction consistency. In contrast, VLMs fine-tuned on STRIDE-QA exhibit dramatic performance gains, achieving 55% success in spatial localization and 28% consistency in future motion prediction, compared to near-zero scores from general-purpose VLMs. Therefore, STRIDE-QA establishes a comprehensive foundation for developing more reliable VLMs for safety-critical autonomous systems.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

In this paper, we introduce the prior knowledge, multi-scale structure, into self-attention modules. We propose a Multi-Scale Transformer which uses multi-scale multi-head self-attention to capture features from different scales. Based on the linguistic perspective and the analysis of pre-trained Transformer (BERT) on a huge corpus, we further design a strategy to control the scale distribution for each layer. Results of three different kinds of tasks (21 datasets) show our Multi-Scale Transformer outperforms the standard Transformer consistently and significantly on small and moderate size datasets.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on trial and error, which becomes impractical for large-scale pretraining. We propose a systematic method to determine the optimal data mixture for any target domain using scaling laws. Our approach accurately predicts the loss of a model of size N trained with D tokens and a specific domain weight vector h. We validate the universality of these scaling laws by demonstrating their predictive power in three distinct and large-scale settings: large language model (LLM), native multimodal model (NMM), and large vision models (LVM) pretraining. We further show that these scaling laws can extrapolate to new data mixtures and across scales: their parameters can be accurately estimated using a few small-scale training runs, and used to estimate the performance at larger scales and unseen domain weights. The scaling laws allow to derive the optimal domain weights for any target domain under a given training budget (N,D), providing a principled alternative to costly trial-and-error methods.

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility of the predictions and their computational complexity. We introduce N-HiTS, a model which addresses both challenges by incorporating novel hierarchical interpolation and multi-rate data sampling techniques. These techniques enable the proposed method to assemble its predictions sequentially, emphasizing components with different frequencies and scales while decomposing the input signal and synthesizing the forecast. We prove that the hierarchical interpolation technique can efficiently approximate arbitrarily long horizons in the presence of smoothness. Additionally, we conduct extensive large-scale dataset experiments from the long-horizon forecasting literature, demonstrating the advantages of our method over the state-of-the-art methods, where N-HiTS provides an average accuracy improvement of almost 20% over the latest Transformer architectures while reducing the computation time by an order of magnitude (50 times). Our code is available at bit.ly/3VA5DoT

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success across various fields, from large language models (LLMs) to large multimodal models (LMMs) and 2D content generation, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these advances, applying autoregressive approaches to 3D object generation and understanding remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces Scale AutoRegressive 3D (SAR3D), a novel framework that leverages a multi-scale 3D vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE) to tokenize 3D objects for efficient autoregressive generation and detailed understanding. By predicting the next scale in a multi-scale latent representation instead of the next single token, SAR3D reduces generation time significantly, achieving fast 3D object generation in just 0.82 seconds on an A6000 GPU. Additionally, given the tokens enriched with hierarchical 3D-aware information, we finetune a pretrained LLM on them, enabling multimodal comprehension of 3D content. Our experiments show that SAR3D surpasses current 3D generation methods in both speed and quality and allows LLMs to interpret and caption 3D models comprehensively.

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) is prohibitively expensive, creating a critical scaling gap where insights from small-scale experiments often fail to transfer to resource-intensive production systems, thereby hindering efficient innovation. To bridge this, we introduce Farseer, a novel and refined scaling law offering enhanced predictive accuracy across scales. By systematically constructing a model loss surface L(N,D), Farseer achieves a significantly better fit to empirical data than prior laws (e.g., Chinchilla's law). Our methodology yields accurate, robust, and highly generalizable predictions, demonstrating excellent extrapolation capabilities, improving upon Chinchilla's law by reducing extrapolation error by 433\%. This allows for the reliable evaluation of competing training strategies across all (N,D) settings, enabling conclusions from small-scale ablation studies to be confidently extrapolated to predict large-scale performance. Furthermore, Farseer provides new insights into optimal compute allocation, better reflecting the nuanced demands of modern LLM training. To validate our approach, we trained an extensive suite of approximately 1,000 LLMs across diverse scales and configurations, consuming roughly 3 million NVIDIA H100 GPU hours. We are comprehensively open-sourcing all models, data, results, and logs at https://github.com/Farseer-Scaling-Law/Farseer to foster further research.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Autoregressive transformers are spectacular models for short sequences but scale poorly to long sequences such as high-resolution images, podcasts, code, or books. We proposed Megabyte, a multi-scale decoder architecture that enables end-to-end differentiable modeling of sequences of over one million bytes. Megabyte segments sequences into patches and uses a local submodel within patches and a global model between patches. This enables sub-quadratic self-attention, much larger feedforward layers for the same compute, and improved parallelism during decoding -- unlocking better performance at reduced cost for both training and generation. Extensive experiments show that Megabyte allows byte-level models to perform competitively with subword models on long context language modeling, achieve state-of-the-art density estimation on ImageNet, and model audio from raw files. Together, these results establish the viability of tokenization-free autoregressive sequence modeling at scale.

The growing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data has the potential to build a foundation model through Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods, which can achieve various SAR Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) tasks with pre-training in large-scale unlabeled data and fine-tuning in small labeled samples. SSL aims to construct supervision signals directly from the data, which minimizes the need for expensive expert annotation and maximizes the use of the expanding data pool for a foundational model. This study investigates an effective SSL method for SAR ATR, which can pave the way for a foundation model in SAR ATR. The primary obstacles faced in SSL for SAR ATR are the small targets in remote sensing and speckle noise in SAR images, corresponding to the SSL approach and signals. To overcome these challenges, we present a novel Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for SAR ATR (SAR-JEPA), which leverages local masked patches to predict the multi-scale SAR gradient representations of unseen context. The key aspect of SAR-JEPA is integrating SAR domain features to ensure high-quality self-supervised signals as target features. Besides, we employ local masks and multi-scale features to accommodate the various small targets in remote sensing. By fine-tuning and evaluating our framework on three target recognition datasets (vehicle, ship, and aircraft) with four other datasets as pre-training, we demonstrate its outperformance over other SSL methods and its effectiveness with increasing SAR data. This study showcases the potential of SSL for SAR target recognition across diverse targets, scenes, and sensors.Our codes and weights are available in \url{https://github.com/waterdisappear/SAR-JEPA.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Predicting human mobility is inherently challenging due to complex long-range dependencies and multi-scale periodic behaviors. To address this, we introduce RHYTHM (Reasoning with Hierarchical Temporal Tokenization for Human Mobility), a unified framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) as general-purpose spatio-temporal predictors and trajectory reasoners. Methodologically, RHYTHM employs temporal tokenization to partition each trajectory into daily segments and encode them as discrete tokens with hierarchical attention that captures both daily and weekly dependencies, thereby significantly reducing the sequence length while preserving cyclical information. Additionally, we enrich token representations by adding pre-computed prompt embeddings for trajectory segments and prediction targets via a frozen LLM, and feeding these combined embeddings back into the LLM backbone to capture complex interdependencies. Computationally, RHYTHM freezes the pretrained LLM's backbone to reduce attention complexity and memory cost. We evaluate our model against state-of-the-art methods using three real-world datasets. Notably, RHYTHM achieves a 2.4% improvement in overall accuracy, a 5.0% increase on weekends, and a 24.6% reduction in training time. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/he-h/rhythm.

Scaling up the size of vision models has been the de facto standard to obtain more powerful visual representations. In this work, we discuss the point beyond which larger vision models are not necessary. First, we demonstrate the power of Scaling on Scales (S^2), whereby a pre-trained and frozen smaller vision model (e.g., ViT-B or ViT-L), run over multiple image scales, can outperform larger models (e.g., ViT-H or ViT-G) on classification, segmentation, depth estimation, Multimodal LLM (MLLM) benchmarks, and robotic manipulation. Notably, S^2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in detailed understanding of MLLM on the V* benchmark, surpassing models such as GPT-4V. We examine the conditions under which S^2 is a preferred scaling approach compared to scaling on model size. While larger models have the advantage of better generalization on hard examples, we show that features of larger vision models can be well approximated by those of multi-scale smaller models. This suggests most, if not all, of the representations learned by current large pre-trained models can also be obtained from multi-scale smaller models. Our results show that a multi-scale smaller model has comparable learning capacity to a larger model, and pre-training smaller models with S^2 can match or even exceed the advantage of larger models. We release a Python package that can apply S^2 on any vision model with one line of code: https://github.com/bfshi/scaling_on_scales.

The performance of transformers for time-series forecasting has improved significantly. Recent architectures learn complex temporal patterns by segmenting a time-series into patches and using the patches as tokens. The patch size controls the ability of transformers to learn the temporal patterns at different frequencies: shorter patches are effective for learning localized, high-frequency patterns, whereas mining long-term seasonalities and trends requires longer patches. Inspired by this observation, we propose a novel framework, Multi-resolution Time-Series Transformer (MTST), which consists of a multi-branch architecture for simultaneous modeling of diverse temporal patterns at different resolutions. In contrast to many existing time-series transformers, we employ relative positional encoding, which is better suited for extracting periodic components at different scales. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTST in comparison to state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Large language models with a huge number of parameters, when trained on near internet-sized number of tokens, have been empirically shown to obey neural scaling laws: specifically, their performance behaves predictably as a power law in either parameters or dataset size until bottlenecked by the other resource. To understand this better, we first identify the necessary properties allowing such scaling laws to arise and then propose a statistical model -- a joint generative data model and random feature model -- that captures this neural scaling phenomenology. By solving this model in the dual limit of large training set size and large number of parameters, we gain insight into (i) the statistical structure of datasets and tasks that lead to scaling laws, (ii) the way nonlinear feature maps, such as those provided by neural networks, enable scaling laws when trained on these datasets, (iii) the optimality of the equiparameterization scaling of training sets and parameters, and (iv) whether such scaling laws can break down and how they behave when they do. Key findings are the manner in which the power laws that occur in the statistics of natural datasets are extended by nonlinear random feature maps and then translated into power-law scalings of the test loss and how the finite extent of the data's spectral power law causes the model's performance to plateau.

WHO has declared that more than 2.2 billion people worldwide are suffering from visual disorders, such as media haze, glaucoma, and drusen. At least 1 billion of these cases could have been either prevented or successfully treated, yet they remain unaddressed due to poverty, a lack of specialists, inaccurate ocular fundus diagnoses by ophthalmologists, or the presence of a rare disease. To address this, the research has developed the Hybrid Trio-Network Model Algorithm for accurately diagnosing 12 distinct common and rare eye diseases. This algorithm utilized the RFMiD dataset of 3,200 fundus images and the Binary Relevance Method to detect diseases separately, ensuring expandability and avoiding incorrect correlations. Each detector, incorporating finely tuned hyperparameters to optimize performance, consisted of three feature components: A classical transfer learning CNN model, a two-stage CNN model, and a Siamese Network. The diagnosis was made using features extracted through this Trio-Model with Ensembled Machine Learning algorithms. The proposed model achieved an average accuracy of 97% and an AUC score of 0.96. Compared to past benchmark studies, an increase of over 10% in the F1-score was observed for most diseases. Furthermore, using the Siamese Network, the model successfully made predictions in diseases like optic disc pallor, which past studies failed to predict due to low confidence. This diagnostic tool presents a stable, adaptive, cost-effective, efficient, accessible, and fast solution for globalizing early detection of both common and rare diseases.

Pretraining data of large language models composes multiple domains (e.g., web texts, academic papers, codes), whose mixture proportions crucially impact the competence of outcome models. While existing endeavors rely on heuristics or qualitative strategies to tune the proportions, we discover the quantitative predictability of model performance regarding the mixture proportions in function forms, which we refer to as the data mixing laws. Fitting such functions on sample mixtures unveils model performance on unseen mixtures before actual runs, thus guiding the selection of an ideal data mixture. Furthermore, we propose nested use of the scaling laws of training steps, model sizes, and our data mixing law to enable predicting the performance of large models trained on massive data under various mixtures with only small-scale training. Moreover, experimental results verify that our method effectively optimizes the training mixture of a 1B model trained for 100B tokens in RedPajama, reaching a performance comparable to the one trained for 48% more steps on the default mixture. Extending the application of data mixing laws to continual training accurately predicts the critical mixture proportion that avoids catastrophic forgetting and outlooks the potential for dynamic data schedules

As language models scale up, it becomes increasingly expensive to verify research ideas because conclusions on small models do not trivially transfer to large ones. A possible solution is to establish a generic system that directly predicts some metrics for large models solely based on the results and hyperparameters from small models. Existing methods based on scaling laws require hyperparameter search on the largest models, which is impractical with limited resources. We address this issue by presenting our discoveries indicating that Maximal Update parametrization (Mup) enables accurate fitting of scaling laws for hyperparameters close to common loss basins, without any search. Thus, different models can be directly compared on large scales with loss prediction even before the training starts. We propose a new paradigm as a first step towards reliable academic research for any model scale without heavy computation. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/cofe-ai/Mu-scaling.

We identify empirical scaling laws for the cross-entropy loss in four domains: generative image modeling, video modeling, multimodal imageleftrightarrowtext models, and mathematical problem solving. In all cases autoregressive Transformers smoothly improve in performance as model size and compute budgets increase, following a power-law plus constant scaling law. The optimal model size also depends on the compute budget through a power-law, with exponents that are nearly universal across all data domains. The cross-entropy loss has an information theoretic interpretation as S(True) + D_{KL}(True||Model), and the empirical scaling laws suggest a prediction for both the true data distribution's entropy and the KL divergence between the true and model distributions. With this interpretation, billion-parameter Transformers are nearly perfect models of the YFCC100M image distribution downsampled to an 8times 8 resolution, and we can forecast the model size needed to achieve any given reducible loss (ie D_{KL}) in nats/image for other resolutions. We find a number of additional scaling laws in specific domains: (a) we identify a scaling relation for the mutual information between captions and images in multimodal models, and show how to answer the question "Is a picture worth a thousand words?"; (b) in the case of mathematical problem solving, we identify scaling laws for model performance when extrapolating beyond the training distribution; (c) we finetune generative image models for ImageNet classification and find smooth scaling of the classification loss and error rate, even as the generative loss levels off. Taken together, these results strengthen the case that scaling laws have important implications for neural network performance, including on downstream tasks.

As AI model size grows, neural scaling laws have become a crucial tool to predict the improvements of large models when increasing capacity and the size of original (human or natural) training data. Yet, the widespread use of popular models means that the ecosystem of online data and text will co-evolve to progressively contain increased amounts of synthesized data. In this paper we ask: How will the scaling laws change in the inevitable regime where synthetic data makes its way into the training corpus? Will future models, still improve, or be doomed to degenerate up to total (model) collapse? We develop a theoretical framework of model collapse through the lens of scaling laws. We discover a wide range of decay phenomena, analyzing loss of scaling, shifted scaling with number of generations, the ''un-learning" of skills, and grokking when mixing human and synthesized data. Our theory is validated by large-scale experiments with a transformer on an arithmetic task and text generation using the large language model Llama2.

While many capabilities of language models (LMs) improve with increased training budget, the influence of scale on hallucinations is not yet fully understood. Hallucinations come in many forms, and there is no universally accepted definition. We thus focus on studying only those hallucinations where a correct answer appears verbatim in the training set. To fully control the training data content, we construct a knowledge graph (KG)-based dataset, and use it to train a set of increasingly large LMs. We find that for a fixed dataset, larger and longer-trained LMs hallucinate less. However, hallucinating on leq5% of the training data requires an order of magnitude larger model, and thus an order of magnitude more compute, than Hoffmann et al. (2022) reported was optimal. Given this costliness, we study how hallucination detectors depend on scale. While we see detector size improves performance on fixed LM's outputs, we find an inverse relationship between the scale of the LM and the detectability of its hallucinations.

We reformulate the problem of encoding a multi-scale representation of a sequence in a language model by casting it in a continuous learning framework. We propose a hierarchical multi-scale language model in which short time-scale dependencies are encoded in the hidden state of a lower-level recurrent neural network while longer time-scale dependencies are encoded in the dynamic of the lower-level network by having a meta-learner update the weights of the lower-level neural network in an online meta-learning fashion. We use elastic weights consolidation as a higher-level to prevent catastrophic forgetting in our continuous learning framework.

Over the past few years, the size of language models has grown exponentially, as has the computational cost to train these large models. This rapid growth has motivated researchers to develop new techniques aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the training process. Despite these advancements, optimally predicting the model size or allocating optimal resources remains a challenge. Several efforts have addressed the challenge by proposing different scaling laws, but almost all of them are architecture-specific (dense or sparse). In this work we revisit existing scaling laws and propose a generalized scaling law to provide a unified framework that is applicable to both dense and sparse large language models. We evaluate and compare our proposed scaling law with existing scaling laws to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Neural scaling laws define a predictable relationship between a model's parameter count and its performance after training in the form of a power law. However, most research to date has not explicitly investigated whether scaling laws can be used to accelerate model development. In this work, we perform such an empirical investigation across a wide range of language understanding tasks, starting from models with as few as 10K parameters, and evaluate downstream performance across 9 language understanding tasks. We find that scaling laws emerge at finetuning time in some NLP tasks, and that they can also be exploited for debugging convergence when training large models. Moreover, for tasks where scaling laws exist, they can be used to predict the performance of larger models, which enables effective model selection. However, revealing scaling laws requires careful hyperparameter tuning and multiple runs for the purpose of uncertainty estimation, which incurs additional overhead, partially offsetting the computational benefits.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have sparked debate over whether such systems just learn an enormous collection of superficial statistics or a coherent model of the data generating process -- a world model. We find evidence for the latter by analyzing the learned representations of three spatial datasets (world, US, NYC places) and three temporal datasets (historical figures, artworks, news headlines) in the Llama-2 family of models. We discover that LLMs learn linear representations of space and time across multiple scales. These representations are robust to prompting variations and unified across different entity types (e.g. cities and landmarks). In addition, we identify individual ``space neurons'' and ``time neurons'' that reliably encode spatial and temporal coordinates. Our analysis demonstrates that modern LLMs acquire structured knowledge about fundamental dimensions such as space and time, supporting the view that they learn not merely superficial statistics, but literal world models.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

Recent studies have demonstrated the great power of Transformer models for time series forecasting. One of the key elements that lead to the transformer's success is the channel-independent (CI) strategy to improve the training robustness. However, the ignorance of the correlation among different channels in CI would limit the model's forecasting capacity. In this work, we design a special Transformer, i.e., Channel Aligned Robust Blend Transformer (CARD for short), that addresses key shortcomings of CI type Transformer in time series forecasting. First, CARD introduces a channel-aligned attention structure that allows it to capture both temporal correlations among signals and dynamical dependence among multiple variables over time. Second, in order to efficiently utilize the multi-scale knowledge, we design a token blend module to generate tokens with different resolutions. Third, we introduce a robust loss function for time series forecasting to alleviate the potential overfitting issue. This new loss function weights the importance of forecasting over a finite horizon based on prediction uncertainties. Our evaluation of multiple long-term and short-term forecasting datasets demonstrates that CARD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting methods. The code is available at the following repository:https://github.com/wxie9/CARD

Work on scaling laws has found that large language models (LMs) show predictable improvements to overall loss with increased scale (model size, training data, and compute). Here, we present evidence for the claim that LMs may show inverse scaling, or worse task performance with increased scale, e.g., due to flaws in the training objective and data. We present empirical evidence of inverse scaling on 11 datasets collected by running a public contest, the Inverse Scaling Prize, with a substantial prize pool. Through analysis of the datasets, along with other examples found in the literature, we identify four potential causes of inverse scaling: (i) preference to repeat memorized sequences over following in-context instructions, (ii) imitation of undesirable patterns in the training data, (iii) tasks containing an easy distractor task which LMs could focus on, rather than the harder real task, and (iv) correct but misleading few-shot demonstrations of the task. We release the winning datasets at https://inversescaling.com/data to allow for further investigation of inverse scaling. Our tasks have helped drive the discovery of U-shaped and inverted-U scaling trends, where an initial trend reverses, suggesting that scaling trends are less reliable at predicting the behavior of larger-scale models than previously understood. Overall, our results suggest that there are tasks for which increased model scale alone may not lead to progress, and that more careful thought needs to go into the data and objectives for training language models.

Estimating the geographical range of a species from sparse observations is a challenging and important geospatial prediction problem. Given a set of locations where a species has been observed, the goal is to build a model to predict whether the species is present or absent at any location. This problem has a long history in ecology, but traditional methods struggle to take advantage of emerging large-scale crowdsourced datasets which can include tens of millions of records for hundreds of thousands of species. In this work, we use Spatial Implicit Neural Representations (SINRs) to jointly estimate the geographical range of 47k species simultaneously. We find that our approach scales gracefully, making increasingly better predictions as we increase the number of species and the amount of data per species when training. To make this problem accessible to machine learning researchers, we provide four new benchmarks that measure different aspects of species range estimation and spatial representation learning. Using these benchmarks, we demonstrate that noisy and biased crowdsourced data can be combined with implicit neural representations to approximate expert-developed range maps for many species.

Large Language Models (LLMs) represent a significant stride toward Artificial General Intelligence. As scaling laws underscore the potential of increasing model sizes, the academic community has intensified its investigations into LLMs with capacities exceeding 50 billion parameters. This technical report builds on our prior work with Tele-FLM (also known as FLM-2), a publicly available 52-billion-parameter model. We delve into two primary areas: we first discuss our observation of Supervised Fine-tuning (SFT) on Tele-FLM-52B, which supports the "less is more" approach for SFT data construction; second, we demonstrate our experiments and analyses on the best practices for progressively growing a model from 52 billion to 102 billion, and subsequently to 1 trillion parameters. We will open-source a 1T model checkpoint, namely Tele-FLM-1T, to advance further training and research.

We study empirical scaling laws for language model performance on the cross-entropy loss. The loss scales as a power-law with model size, dataset size, and the amount of compute used for training, with some trends spanning more than seven orders of magnitude. Other architectural details such as network width or depth have minimal effects within a wide range. Simple equations govern the dependence of overfitting on model/dataset size and the dependence of training speed on model size. These relationships allow us to determine the optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget. Larger models are significantly more sample-efficient, such that optimally compute-efficient training involves training very large models on a relatively modest amount of data and stopping significantly before convergence.

Pure time series forecasting tasks typically focus exclusively on numerical features; however, real-world financial decision-making demands the comparison and analysis of heterogeneous sources of information. Recent advances in deep learning and large scale language models (LLMs) have made significant strides in capturing sentiment and other qualitative signals, thereby enhancing the accuracy of financial time series predictions. Despite these advances, most existing datasets consist solely of price series and news text, are confined to a single market, and remain limited in scale. In this paper, we introduce FinMultiTime, the first large scale, multimodal financial time series dataset. FinMultiTime temporally aligns four distinct modalities financial news, structured financial tables, K-line technical charts, and stock price time series across both the S&P 500 and HS 300 universes. Covering 5,105 stocks from 2009 to 2025 in the United States and China, the dataset totals 112.6 GB and provides minute-level, daily, and quarterly resolutions, thus capturing short, medium, and long term market signals with high fidelity. Our experiments demonstrate that (1) scale and data quality markedly boost prediction accuracy; (2) multimodal fusion yields moderate gains in Transformer models; and (3) a fully reproducible pipeline enables seamless dataset updates.

Recent work has identified simple empirical scaling laws for language models, linking compute budget, dataset size, model size, and autoregressive modeling loss. The validity of these simple power laws across orders of magnitude in model scale provides compelling evidence that larger models are also more capable models. However, scaling up models under the constraints of hardware and infrastructure is no easy feat, and rapidly becomes a hard and expensive engineering problem. We investigate ways to tentatively cheat scaling laws, and train larger models for cheaper. We emulate an increase in effective parameters, using efficient approximations: either by doping the models with frozen random parameters, or by using fast structured transforms in place of dense linear layers. We find that the scaling relationship between test loss and compute depends only on the actual number of trainable parameters; scaling laws cannot be deceived by spurious parameters.

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

We present TimeFound, an encoder-decoder transformer-based time series foundation model for out-of-the-box zero-shot forecasting. To handle time series data from various domains, TimeFound employs a multi-resolution patching strategy to capture complex temporal patterns at multiple scales. We pre-train our model with two sizes (200M and 710M parameters) on a large time-series corpus comprising both real-world and synthetic datasets. Over a collection of unseen datasets across diverse domains and forecasting horizons, our empirical evaluations suggest that TimeFound can achieve superior or competitive zero-shot forecasting performance, compared to state-of-the-art time series foundation models.

Efficiently capturing the long-range patterns in sequential data sources salient to a given task -- such as classification and generative modeling -- poses a fundamental challenge. Popular approaches in the space tradeoff between the memory burden of brute-force enumeration and comparison, as in transformers, the computational burden of complicated sequential dependencies, as in recurrent neural networks, or the parameter burden of convolutional networks with many or large filters. We instead take inspiration from wavelet-based multiresolution analysis to define a new building block for sequence modeling, which we call a MultiresLayer. The key component of our model is the multiresolution convolution, capturing multiscale trends in the input sequence. Our MultiresConv can be implemented with shared filters across a dilated causal convolution tree. Thus it garners the computational advantages of convolutional networks and the principled theoretical motivation of wavelet decompositions. Our MultiresLayer is straightforward to implement, requires significantly fewer parameters, and maintains at most a O(Nlog N) memory footprint for a length N sequence. Yet, by stacking such layers, our model yields state-of-the-art performance on a number of sequence classification and autoregressive density estimation tasks using CIFAR-10, ListOps, and PTB-XL datasets.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Kaplan et al. and Hoffmann et al. developed influential scaling laws for the optimal model size as a function of the compute budget, but these laws yield substantially different predictions. We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb) and identifying three factors causing the difference: last layer computational cost, warmup duration, and scale-dependent optimizer tuning. With these factors corrected, we obtain excellent agreement with the Hoffmann et al. (i.e., "Chinchilla") scaling law. Counter to a hypothesis of Hoffmann et al., we find that careful learning rate decay is not essential for the validity of their scaling law. As a secondary result, we derive scaling laws for the optimal learning rate and batch size, finding that tuning the AdamW beta_2 parameter is essential at lower batch sizes.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

Large-scale recommendation systems are characterized by their reliance on high cardinality, heterogeneous features and the need to handle tens of billions of user actions on a daily basis. Despite being trained on huge volume of data with thousands of features, most Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) in industry fail to scale with compute. Inspired by success achieved by Transformers in language and vision domains, we revisit fundamental design choices in recommendation systems. We reformulate recommendation problems as sequential transduction tasks within a generative modeling framework (``Generative Recommenders''), and propose a new architecture, HSTU, designed for high cardinality, non-stationary streaming recommendation data. HSTU outperforms baselines over synthetic and public datasets by up to 65.8\% in NDCG, and is 5.3x to 15.2x faster than FlashAttention2-based Transformers on 8192 length sequences. HSTU-based Generative Recommenders, with 1.5 trillion parameters, improve metrics in online A/B tests by 12.4\% and have been deployed on multiple surfaces of a large internet platform with billions of users. More importantly, the model quality of Generative Recommenders empirically scales as a power-law of training compute across three orders of magnitude, up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale, which reduces carbon footprint needed for future model developments, and further paves the way for the first foundational models in recommendations.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Numerical simulations in climate, chemistry, or astrophysics are computationally too expensive for uncertainty quantification or parameter-exploration at high-resolution. Reduced-order or surrogate models are multiple orders of magnitude faster, but traditional surrogates are inflexible or inaccurate and pure machine learning (ML)-based surrogates too data-hungry. We propose a hybrid, flexible surrogate model that exploits known physics for simulating large-scale dynamics and limits learning to the hard-to-model term, which is called parametrization or closure and captures the effect of fine- onto large-scale dynamics. Leveraging neural operators, we are the first to learn grid-independent, non-local, and flexible parametrizations. Our multiscale neural operator is motivated by a rich literature in multiscale modeling, has quasilinear runtime complexity, is more accurate or flexible than state-of-the-art parametrizations and demonstrated on the chaotic equation multiscale Lorenz96.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Scaling laws are typically fit using a family of models with a narrow range of frozen hyper-parameter choices. In this work we study scaling laws using a wide range of architecture and hyper-parameter choices, and highlight their impact on resulting prescriptions. As a primary artifact of our research, we release the Gemstones: the most comprehensive open-source scaling law dataset to date, consisting of over 4000 checkpoints from transformers with up to 2 billion parameters; these models have been trained with different learning rates, cooldown schedules, and architectural shapes. Our checkpoints enable more complex studies of scaling, such as a law that predicts language modeling performance as a function of model width and depth. By examining the various facets of our model suite, we find that the prescriptions of scaling laws can be highly sensitive to the experimental design process and the specific model checkpoints used during fitting. Code: https://github.com/mcleish7/gemstone-scaling-laws

Multi-task learning (MTL) has shown considerable practical benefits, particularly when using pre-trained language models (PLMs). While this is commonly achieved by simultaneously learning n tasks under a joint optimization procedure, recent methods such as AdapterFusion structure the problem into two distinct stages: (i) task learning, where knowledge specific to a task is encapsulated within sets of parameters (\eg adapters), and (ii) transfer, where this already learned knowledge is leveraged for a target task. This separation of concerns provides numerous benefits, such as promoting reusability, and addressing cases involving data privacy and societal concerns; on the flip side, current two-stage MTL methods come with the cost of introducing a substantial number of additional parameters. In this work, we address this issue by leveraging the usefulness of linearly scaling the output representations of source adapters for transfer learning. We introduce ScaLearn, a simple and highly parameter-efficient two-stage MTL method that capitalizes on the knowledge of the source tasks by learning a minimal set of scaling parameters that enable effective knowledge transfer to a target task. Our experiments on three benchmarks (GLUE, SuperGLUE, and HumSet) show that our ScaLearn, in addition to facilitating the benefits of two-stage MTL, consistently outperforms strong baselines with only a small number of transfer parameters - roughly 0.35% of those of AdapterFusion. Remarkably, we observe that ScaLearn maintains its strong abilities even when further reducing parameters through uniform scaling and layer-sharing, achieving similarly competitive results with only 8 transfer parameters for each target task. Our proposed approach thus demonstrates the power of simple scaling as a promise for more efficient task transfer.

Although long-video understanding demands that models capture hierarchical temporal information -- from clip (seconds) and shot (tens of seconds) to event (minutes) and story (hours) -- existing benchmarks either neglect this multi-scale design or scatter scale-specific questions across different videos, preventing direct comparison of model performance across timescales on the same content. To address this, we introduce ScaleLong, the first benchmark to disentangle these factors by embedding questions targeting four hierarchical timescales -- clip (seconds), shot (tens of seconds), event (minutes), and story (hours) -- all within the same video content. This within-content multi-timescale questioning design enables direct comparison of model performance across timescales on identical videos. ScaleLong features 269 long videos (avg.\ 86\,min) from 5 main categories and 36 sub-categories, with 4--8 carefully designed questions, including at least one question for each timescale. Evaluating 23 MLLMs reveals a U-shaped performance curve, with higher accuracy at the shortest and longest timescales and a dip at intermediate levels. Furthermore, ablation studies show that increased visual token capacity consistently enhances reasoning across all timescales. ScaleLong offers a fine-grained, multi-timescale benchmark for advancing MLLM capabilities in long-video understanding. The code and dataset are available https://github.com/multimodal-art-projection/ScaleLong.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for History Matching (HM) to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By considering a toy climate model, namely, the two-scale Lorenz96 model and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore in detail how several built-in choices need to be carefully tested. We also demonstrate the importance of introducing physical expertise in the range of parameters, a priori to running HM. Finally we revisit a classical procedure in climate model tuning, that consists of tuning the slow and fast components separately. By doing so in the Lorenz96 model, we illustrate the non-uniqueness of plausible parameters and highlight the specificity of metrics emerging from the coupling. This paper contributes also to bridging the communities of uncertainty quantification, machine learning and climate modeling, by making connections between the terms used by each community for the same concept and presenting promising collaboration avenues that would benefit climate modeling research.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM responses are typically sampled from the model's predicted distribution over the large, combinatorial output space of natural language. Translating this process to conformal prediction, we calibrate a stopping rule for sampling different outputs from the LM that get added to a growing set of candidates until we are confident that the output set is sufficient. Since some samples may be low-quality, we also simultaneously calibrate and apply a rejection rule for removing candidates from the output set to reduce noise. Similar to conformal prediction, we prove that the sampled set returned by our procedure contains at least one acceptable answer with high probability, while still being empirically precise (i.e., small) on average. Furthermore, within this set of candidate responses, we show that we can also accurately identify subsets of individual components -- such as phrases or sentences -- that are each independently correct (e.g., that are not "hallucinations"), again with statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the promise of our approach on multiple tasks in open-domain question answering, text summarization, and radiology report generation using different LM variants.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

We investigate the predictability of large language model (LLM) capabilities: given records of past experiments using different model families, numbers of parameters, tasks, and numbers of in-context examples, can we accurately predict LLM performance on new experiment configurations? Answering this question has practical implications for LLM users (e.g., deciding which models to try), developers (e.g., prioritizing evaluation on representative tasks), and the research community (e.g., identifying hard-to-predict capabilities that warrant further investigation). We study the performance prediction problem on experiment records from BIG-bench. On a random train-test split, an MLP-based predictor achieves an R^2 score greater than 95%, indicating the presence of learnable patterns within the experiment records. We then formulate the problem of searching for "small-bench," an informative subset of BIG-bench tasks from which the performance on the full set can be maximally recovered. We find a subset as informative as BIG-bench Hard for evaluating new model families, while being 3times smaller. Additionally, we find competitive subsets by clustering task representations learned by our MLP-based predictor and selecting tasks close to cluster centroids, highlighting the importance of task diversity in constructing "small-bench."

Meta-learning usually refers to a learning algorithm that learns from other learning algorithms. The problem of uncertainty in the predictions of neural networks shows that the world is only partially predictable and a learned neural network cannot generalize to its ever-changing surrounding environments. Therefore, the question is how a predictive model can represent multiple predictions simultaneously. We aim to provide a fundamental understanding of learning to learn in the contents of Decentralized Neural Networks (Decentralized NNs) and we believe this is one of the most important questions and prerequisites to building an autonomous intelligence machine. To this end, we shall demonstrate several pieces of evidence for tackling the problems above with Meta Learning in Decentralized NNs. In particular, we will present three different approaches to building such a decentralized learning system: (1) learning from many replica neural networks, (2) building the hierarchy of neural networks for different functions, and (3) leveraging different modality experts to learn cross-modal representations.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Efficient LLM pre-training requires well-tuned hyperparameters (HPs), including learning rate {\eta} and weight decay {\lambda}. We study scaling laws for HPs: formulas for how to scale HPs as we scale model size N, dataset size D, and batch size B. Recent work suggests the AdamW timescale, B/({\eta}{\lambda}D), should remain constant across training settings, and we verify the implication that optimal {\lambda} scales linearly with B, for a fixed N,D. However, as N,D scale, we show the optimal timescale obeys a precise power law in the tokens-per-parameter ratio, D/N. This law thus provides a method to accurately predict {\lambda}opt in advance of large-scale training. We also study scaling laws for optimal batch size Bopt (the B enabling lowest loss at a given N,D) and critical batch size Bcrit (the B beyond which further data parallelism becomes ineffective). In contrast with prior work, we find both Bopt and Bcrit scale as power laws in D, independent of model size, N. Finally, we analyze how these findings inform the real-world selection of Pareto-optimal N and D under dual training time and compute objectives.

We introduce EarthPT -- an Earth Observation (EO) pretrained transformer. EarthPT is a 700 million parameter decoding transformer foundation model trained in an autoregressive self-supervised manner and developed specifically with EO use-cases in mind. We demonstrate that EarthPT is an effective forecaster that can accurately predict future pixel-level surface reflectances across the 400-2300 nm range well into the future. For example, forecasts of the evolution of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have a typical error of approximately 0.05 (over a natural range of -1 -> 1) at the pixel level over a five month test set horizon, out-performing simple phase-folded models based on historical averaging. We also demonstrate that embeddings learnt by EarthPT hold semantically meaningful information and could be exploited for downstream tasks such as highly granular, dynamic land use classification. Excitingly, we note that the abundance of EO data provides us with -- in theory -- quadrillions of training tokens. Therefore, if we assume that EarthPT follows neural scaling laws akin to those derived for Large Language Models (LLMs), there is currently no data-imposed limit to scaling EarthPT and other similar `Large Observation Models.'

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

We rigorously establish a bipartite mutual information scaling law in natural language that governs long-range dependencies. This scaling law, which we show is distinct from and scales independently of the conventional two-point mutual information, is the key to understanding long-context language modeling. Using this scaling law, we formulate the Long-context Language Modeling (L^2M) condition, which relates a model's capacity for effective long context length modeling to the scaling of its latent state size for storing past information. Our results are validated through experiments on both transformers and state space models. This work establishes a theoretical foundation that guides the development of large language models toward longer context lengths.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Scaling laws play an instrumental role in the sustainable improvement in model quality. Unfortunately, recommendation models to date do not exhibit such laws similar to those observed in the domain of large language models, due to the inefficiencies of their upscaling mechanisms. This limitation poses significant challenges in adapting these models to increasingly more complex real-world datasets. In this paper, we propose an effective network architecture based purely on stacked factorization machines, and a synergistic upscaling strategy, collectively dubbed Wukong, to establish a scaling law in the domain of recommendation. Wukong's unique design makes it possible to capture diverse, any-order of interactions simply through taller and wider layers. We conducted extensive evaluations on six public datasets, and our results demonstrate that Wukong consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models quality-wise. Further, we assessed Wukong's scalability on an internal, large-scale dataset. The results show that Wukong retains its superiority in quality over state-of-the-art models, while holding the scaling law across two orders of magnitude in model complexity, extending beyond 100 Gflop or equivalently up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale of total training compute, where prior arts fall short.

Scaling up neural networks has led to remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Moreover, performance often follows reliable scaling laws as a function of training set size, model size, and compute, which offers valuable guidance as large-scale experiments are becoming increasingly expensive. However, previous work on scaling laws has primarily used private data \& models or focused on uni-modal language or vision learning. To address these limitations, we investigate scaling laws for contrastive language-image pre-training (CLIP) with the public LAION dataset and the open-source OpenCLIP repository. Our large-scale experiments involve models trained on up to two billion image-text pairs and identify power law scaling for multiple downstream tasks including zero-shot classification, retrieval, linear probing, and end-to-end fine-tuning. We find that the training distribution plays a key role in scaling laws as the OpenAI and OpenCLIP models exhibit different scaling behavior despite identical model architectures and similar training recipes. We open-source our evaluation workflow and all models, including the largest public CLIP models, to ensure reproducibility and make scaling laws research more accessible. Source code and instructions to reproduce this study will be available at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-openclip

Multi-dataset training provides a viable solution for exploiting heterogeneous large-scale datasets without extra annotation cost. In this work, we propose a scalable multi-dataset detector (ScaleDet) that can scale up its generalization across datasets when increasing the number of training datasets. Unlike existing multi-dataset learners that mostly rely on manual relabelling efforts or sophisticated optimizations to unify labels across datasets, we introduce a simple yet scalable formulation to derive a unified semantic label space for multi-dataset training. ScaleDet is trained by visual-textual alignment to learn the label assignment with label semantic similarities across datasets. Once trained, ScaleDet can generalize well on any given upstream and downstream datasets with seen and unseen classes. We conduct extensive experiments using LVIS, COCO, Objects365, OpenImages as upstream datasets, and 13 datasets from Object Detection in the Wild (ODinW) as downstream datasets. Our results show that ScaleDet achieves compelling strong model performance with an mAP of 50.7 on LVIS, 58.8 on COCO, 46.8 on Objects365, 76.2 on OpenImages, and 71.8 on ODinW, surpassing state-of-the-art detectors with the same backbone.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

We present the MULTIMODAL UNIVERSE, a large-scale multimodal dataset of scientific astronomical data, compiled specifically to facilitate machine learning research. Overall, the MULTIMODAL UNIVERSE contains hundreds of millions of astronomical observations, constituting 100\,TB of multi-channel and hyper-spectral images, spectra, multivariate time series, as well as a wide variety of associated scientific measurements and "metadata". In addition, we include a range of benchmark tasks representative of standard practices for machine learning methods in astrophysics. This massive dataset will enable the development of large multi-modal models specifically targeted towards scientific applications. All codes used to compile the MULTIMODAL UNIVERSE and a description of how to access the data is available at https://github.com/MultimodalUniverse/MultimodalUniverse

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Scaling recommendation models into large recommendation models has become one of the most widely discussed topics. Recent efforts focus on components beyond the scaling embedding dimension, as it is believed that scaling embedding may lead to performance degradation. Although there have been some initial observations on embedding, the root cause of their non-scalability remains unclear. Moreover, whether performance degradation occurs across different types of models and datasets is still an unexplored area. Regarding the effect of embedding dimensions on performance, we conduct large-scale experiments across 10 datasets with varying sparsity levels and scales, using 4 representative classical architectures. We surprisingly observe two novel phenomenon: double-peak and logarithmic. For the former, as the embedding dimension increases, performance first improves, then declines, rises again, and eventually drops. For the latter, it exhibits a perfect logarithmic curve. Our contributions are threefold. First, we discover two novel phenomena when scaling collaborative filtering models. Second, we gain an understanding of the underlying causes of the double-peak phenomenon. Lastly, we theoretically analyze the noise robustness of collaborative filtering models, with results matching empirical observations.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

In this paper, we present our novel systems developed for the SemEval-2024 hallucination detection task. Our investigation spans a range of strategies to compare model predictions with reference standards, encompassing diverse baselines, the refinement of pre-trained encoders through supervised learning, and an ensemble approaches utilizing several high-performing models. Through these explorations, we introduce three distinct methods that exhibit strong performance metrics. To amplify our training data, we generate additional training samples from unlabelled training subset. Furthermore, we provide a detailed comparative analysis of our approaches. Notably, our premier method achieved a commendable 9th place in the competition's model-agnostic track and 17th place in model-aware track, highlighting its effectiveness and potential.

This paper highlights the need to bring document classification benchmarking closer to real-world applications, both in the nature of data tested (X: multi-channel, multi-paged, multi-industry; Y: class distributions and label set variety) and in classification tasks considered (f: multi-page document, page stream, and document bundle classification, ...). We identify the lack of public multi-page document classification datasets, formalize different classification tasks arising in application scenarios, and motivate the value of targeting efficient multi-page document representations. An experimental study on proposed multi-page document classification datasets demonstrates that current benchmarks have become irrelevant and need to be updated to evaluate complete documents, as they naturally occur in practice. This reality check also calls for more mature evaluation methodologies, covering calibration evaluation, inference complexity (time-memory), and a range of realistic distribution shifts (e.g., born-digital vs. scanning noise, shifting page order). Our study ends on a hopeful note by recommending concrete avenues for future improvements.}

Efficiently modeling massive images is a long-standing challenge in machine learning. To this end, we introduce Multi-Scale Attention (MSA). MSA relies on two key ideas, (i) multi-scale representations (ii) bi-directional cross-scale communication. MSA creates O(log N) scales to represent the image across progressively coarser features and leverages cross-attention to propagate information across scales. We then introduce Atlas, a novel neural network architecture based on MSA. We demonstrate that Atlas significantly improves the compute-performance tradeoff of long-context image modeling in a high-resolution variant of ImageNet 100. At 1024px resolution, Atlas-B achieves 91.04% accuracy, comparable to ConvNext-B (91.92%) while being 4.3x faster. Atlas is 2.95x faster and 7.38% better than FasterViT, 2.25x faster and 4.96% better than LongViT. In comparisons against MambaVision-S, we find Atlas-S achieves 5%, 16% and 32% higher accuracy at 1024px, 2048px and 4096px respectively, while obtaining similar runtimes. Code for reproducing our experiments and pretrained models is available at https://github.com/yalalab/atlas.

The success of today's large language models (LLMs) depends on the observation that larger models perform better. However, the origin of this neural scaling law -- the finding that loss decreases as a power law with model size -- remains unclear. Starting from two empirical principles -- that LLMs represent more things than the model dimensions (widths) they have (i.e., representations are superposed), and that words or concepts in language occur with varying frequencies -- we constructed a toy model to study the loss scaling with model size. We found that when superposition is weak, meaning only the most frequent features are represented without interference, the scaling of loss with model size depends on the underlying feature frequency; if feature frequencies follow a power law, so does the loss. In contrast, under strong superposition, where all features are represented but overlap with each other, the loss becomes inversely proportional to the model dimension across a wide range of feature frequency distributions. This robust scaling behavior is explained geometrically: when many more vectors are packed into a lower dimensional space, the interference (squared overlaps) between vectors scales inversely with that dimension. We then analyzed four families of open-sourced LLMs and found that they exhibit strong superposition and quantitatively match the predictions of our toy model. The Chinchilla scaling law turned out to also agree with our results. We conclude that representation superposition is an important mechanism underlying the observed neural scaling laws. We anticipate that these insights will inspire new training strategies and model architectures to achieve better performance with less computation and fewer parameters.

We introduce InternVL 2.5, an advanced multimodal large language model (MLLM) series that builds upon InternVL 2.0, maintaining its core model architecture while introducing significant enhancements in training and testing strategies as well as data quality. In this work, we delve into the relationship between model scaling and performance, systematically exploring the performance trends in vision encoders, language models, dataset sizes, and test-time configurations. Through extensive evaluations on a wide range of benchmarks, including multi-discipline reasoning, document understanding, multi-image / video understanding, real-world comprehension, multimodal hallucination detection, visual grounding, multilingual capabilities, and pure language processing, InternVL 2.5 exhibits competitive performance, rivaling leading commercial models such as GPT-4o and Claude-3.5-Sonnet. Notably, our model is the first open-source MLLMs to surpass 70% on the MMMU benchmark, achieving a 3.7-point improvement through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning and showcasing strong potential for test-time scaling. We hope this model contributes to the open-source community by setting new standards for developing and applying multimodal AI systems. HuggingFace demo see https://huggingface.co/spaces/OpenGVLab/InternVL

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

Representations from transformer-based unidirectional language models are known to be effective at predicting brain responses to natural language. However, most studies comparing language models to brains have used GPT-2 or similarly sized language models. Here we tested whether larger open-source models such as those from the OPT and LLaMA families are better at predicting brain responses recorded using fMRI. Mirroring scaling results from other contexts, we found that brain prediction performance scales log-linearly with model size from 125M to 30B parameter models, with ~15% increased encoding performance as measured by correlation with a held-out test set across 3 subjects. Similar log-linear behavior was observed when scaling the size of the fMRI training set. We also characterized scaling for acoustic encoding models that use HuBERT, WavLM, and Whisper, and we found comparable improvements with model size. A noise ceiling analysis of these large, high-performance encoding models showed that performance is nearing the theoretical maximum for brain areas such as the precuneus and higher auditory cortex. These results suggest that increasing scale in both models and data will yield incredibly effective models of language processing in the brain, enabling better scientific understanding as well as applications such as decoding.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Sparse autoencoders have recently produced dictionaries of high-dimensional vectors corresponding to the universe of concepts represented by large language models. We find that this concept universe has interesting structure at three levels: 1) The "atomic" small-scale structure contains "crystals" whose faces are parallelograms or trapezoids, generalizing well-known examples such as (man-woman-king-queen). We find that the quality of such parallelograms and associated function vectors improves greatly when projecting out global distractor directions such as word length, which is efficiently done with linear discriminant analysis. 2) The "brain" intermediate-scale structure has significant spatial modularity; for example, math and code features form a "lobe" akin to functional lobes seen in neural fMRI images. We quantify the spatial locality of these lobes with multiple metrics and find that clusters of co-occurring features, at coarse enough scale, also cluster together spatially far more than one would expect if feature geometry were random. 3) The "galaxy" scale large-scale structure of the feature point cloud is not isotropic, but instead has a power law of eigenvalues with steepest slope in middle layers. We also quantify how the clustering entropy depends on the layer.

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures. Empirical evidence consistently shows that even powerful Transformers often fail to outperform much simpler models, e.g., linear models, on TSF tasks; however, a rigorous theoretical understanding of this phenomenon remains limited. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of Transformers' limitations for TSF through the lens of In-Context Learning (ICL) theory. Specifically, under AR(p) data, we establish that: (1) Linear Self-Attention (LSA) models cannot achieve lower expected MSE than classical linear models for in-context forecasting; (2) as the context length approaches to infinity, LSA asymptotically recovers the optimal linear predictor; and (3) under Chain-of-Thought (CoT) style inference, predictions collapse to the mean exponentially. We empirically validate these findings through carefully designed experiments. Our theory not only sheds light on several previously underexplored phenomena but also offers practical insights for designing more effective forecasting architectures. We hope our work encourages the broader research community to revisit the fundamental theoretical limitations of TSF and to critically evaluate the direct application of increasingly sophisticated architectures without deeper scrutiny.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have advanced in integrating diverse modalities but frequently suffer from hallucination. A promising solution to mitigate this issue is to generate text with citations, providing a transparent chain for verification. However, existing work primarily focuses on generating citations for text-only content, overlooking the challenges and opportunities of multimodal contexts. To address this gap, we introduce MCiteBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate and analyze the multimodal citation text generation ability of MLLMs. Our benchmark comprises data derived from academic papers and review-rebuttal interactions, featuring diverse information sources and multimodal content. We comprehensively evaluate models from multiple dimensions, including citation quality, source reliability, and answer accuracy. Through extensive experiments, we observe that MLLMs struggle with multimodal citation text generation. We also conduct deep analyses of models' performance, revealing that the bottleneck lies in attributing the correct sources rather than understanding the multimodal content.

Weather forecasting is one of the cornerstones of meteorological work. In this paper, we present a new benchmark dataset named Weather2K, which aims to make up for the deficiencies of existing weather forecasting datasets in terms of real-time, reliability, and diversity, as well as the key bottleneck of data quality. To be specific, our Weather2K is featured from the following aspects: 1) Reliable and real-time data. The data is hourly collected from 2,130 ground weather stations covering an area of 6 million square kilometers. 2) Multivariate meteorological variables. 20 meteorological factors and 3 constants for position information are provided with a length of 40,896 time steps. 3) Applicable to diverse tasks. We conduct a set of baseline tests on time series forecasting and spatio-temporal forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, our Weather2K is the first attempt to tackle weather forecasting task by taking full advantage of the strengths of observation data from ground weather stations. Based on Weather2K, we further propose Meteorological Factors based Multi-Graph Convolution Network (MFMGCN), which can effectively construct the intrinsic correlation among geographic locations based on meteorological factors. Sufficient experiments show that MFMGCN improves both the forecasting performance and temporal robustness. We hope our Weather2K can significantly motivate researchers to develop efficient and accurate algorithms to advance the task of weather forecasting. The dataset can be available at https://github.com/bycnfz/weather2k/.

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

Pretraining large language models (LLMs) is resource-intensive, often requiring months of training time even with high-end GPU clusters. There are two approaches of mitigating such computational demands: reusing smaller models to train larger ones (upcycling), and training computationally efficient models like mixture-of-experts (MoE). In this paper, we study the upcycling of LLMs to MoE models, of which the scaling behavior remains underexplored. Through extensive experiments, we identify empirical scaling laws that describe how performance depends on dataset size and model configuration. Particularly, we show that, while scaling these factors improves performance, there is a novel interaction term between the dense and upcycled training dataset that limits the efficiency of upcycling at large computational budgets. Based on these findings, we provide guidance to scale upcycling, and establish conditions under which upcycling outperforms from-scratch trainings within budget constraints.

Large language model pre-training has become increasingly expensive, with most practitioners relying on scaling laws to allocate compute budgets for model size and training tokens, commonly referred to as Compute-Optimal or Chinchilla Optimal. In this paper, we hypothesize a new scaling law that suggests model performance depends mostly on the amount of compute spent for transformer-based models, independent of the specific allocation to model size and dataset size. Using this unified scaling law, we predict that (a) for inference efficiency, training should prioritize smaller model sizes and larger training datasets, and (b) assuming the exhaustion of available web datasets, scaling the model size might be the only way to further improve model performance.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across numerous tasks by using a diverse array of adaptation strategies. However, optimally selecting a model and adaptation strategy under resource constraints is challenging and often requires extensive experimentation. We investigate whether it is possible to accurately predict both performance and cost without expensive trials. We formalize the strategy selection problem for LLMs and introduce COSMOS, a unified prediction framework that efficiently estimates adaptation outcomes at minimal cost. We instantiate and study the capability of our framework via a pair of powerful predictors: embedding-augmented lightweight proxy models to predict fine-tuning performance, and low-sample scaling laws to forecast retrieval-augmented in-context learning. Extensive evaluation across eight representative benchmarks demonstrates that COSMOS achieves high prediction accuracy while reducing computational costs by 92.72% on average, and up to 98.71% in resource-intensive scenarios. Our results show that efficient prediction of adaptation outcomes is not only feasible but can substantially reduce the computational overhead of LLM deployment while maintaining performance standards.

We present a joint forecasting framework for time series prediction that contrasts with traditional direct or recursive methods. This framework achieves state-of-the-art performance for our designed foundation model, YingLong, and reveals a novel scaling effect: longer outputs significantly enhance model accuracy due to delayed chain-of-thought reasoning in our non-causal approach. YingLong is a non-causal, bidirectional attention encoder-only transformer trained through masked token recovery, aligning more effectively with language understanding tasks than with generation tasks. Additionally, we boost performance by tackling output variance with a multi-input ensemble. We release four foundation models ranging from 6M to 300M parameters, demonstrating superior results in zero-shot tasks on the ETT and Weather datasets. YingLong achieves more than 60% best performance. To ensure generalizability, we assessed the models using the GIFT-Eval benchmark, which comprises 23 time series datasets across 7 domains. Yinglong significantly outperformed the best time-series foundation models, end-to-end trained models by 14% and 44% in rank respectively.The pretrained 300M model is available at https://huggingface.co/qcw1314/YingLong_300m

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Predicting multiple real-world tasks in a single model often requires a particularly diverse feature space. Multimodal (MM) models aim to extract the synergistic predictive potential of multiple data types to create a shared feature space with aligned semantic meaning across inputs of drastically varying sizes (i.e. images, text, sound). Most current MM architectures fuse these representations in parallel, which not only limits their interpretability but also creates a dependency on modality availability. We present MultiModN, a multimodal, modular network that fuses latent representations in a sequence of any number, combination, or type of modality while providing granular real-time predictive feedback on any number or combination of predictive tasks. MultiModN's composable pipeline is interpretable-by-design, as well as innately multi-task and robust to the fundamental issue of biased missingness. We perform four experiments on several benchmark MM datasets across 10 real-world tasks (predicting medical diagnoses, academic performance, and weather), and show that MultiModN's sequential MM fusion does not compromise performance compared with a baseline of parallel fusion. By simulating the challenging bias of missing not-at-random (MNAR), this work shows that, contrary to MultiModN, parallel fusion baselines erroneously learn MNAR and suffer catastrophic failure when faced with different patterns of MNAR at inference. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first inherently MNAR-resistant approach to MM modeling. In conclusion, MultiModN provides granular insights, robustness, and flexibility without compromising performance.

The ever-growing ecosystem of LLMs has posed a challenge in selecting the most appropriate pre-trained model to fine-tune amidst a sea of options. Given constrained resources, fine-tuning all models and making selections afterward is unrealistic. In this work, we formulate this resource-constrained selection task into predicting fine-tuning performance and illustrate its natural connection with scaling laws. Unlike pre-training, We find that the fine-tuning scaling curve includes not just the well-known "power phase" but also the previously unobserved "pre-power phase". We also explain why existing scaling laws fail to capture this phase transition phenomenon both theoretically and empirically. To address this, we introduce the concept of "pre-learned data size" into our rectified scaling law, which overcomes theoretical limitations and fits experimental results much better. By leveraging our law, we propose a novel LLM selection algorithm that selects the near-optimal model with hundreds of times less resource consumption, while other methods may provide negatively correlated selection.

In recent years, the development of robust multi-source models has emerged in the Earth Observation (EO) field. These are models that leverage data from diverse sources to improve predictive accuracy when there is missing data. Despite these advancements, the factors influencing the varying effectiveness of such models remain poorly understood. In this study, we evaluate the predictive performance of six state-of-the-art multi-source models in predicting scenarios where either a single data source is missing or only a single source is available. Our analysis reveals that the efficacy of these models is intricately tied to the nature of the task, the complementarity among data sources, and the model design. Surprisingly, we observe instances where the removal of certain data sources leads to improved predictive performance, challenging the assumption that incorporating all available data is always beneficial. These findings prompt critical reflections on model complexity and the necessity of all collected data sources, potentially shaping the way for more streamlined approaches in EO applications.

The impressive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across diverse tasks are now well-established, yet their effective deployment necessitates careful hyperparameter optimization. Through extensive empirical studies involving grid searches across diverse configurations, we discover universal scaling laws governing these hyperparameters: optimal learning rate follows a power-law relationship with both model parameters and data sizes, while optimal batch size scales primarily with data sizes. Our analysis reveals a convex optimization landscape for hyperparameters under fixed models and data size conditions. This convexity implies an optimal hyperparameter plateau. We contribute a universal, plug-and-play optimal hyperparameter tool for the community. Its estimated values on the test set are merely 0.07\% away from the globally optimal LLM performance found via an exhaustive search. These laws demonstrate remarkable robustness across variations in model sparsity, training data distribution, and model shape. To our best known, this is the first work that unifies different model shapes and structures, such as Mixture-of-Experts models and dense transformers, as well as establishes optimal hyperparameter scaling laws across diverse data distributions. This exhaustive optimization process demands substantial computational resources, utilizing nearly one million NVIDIA H800 GPU hours to train 3,700 LLMs of varying sizes and hyperparameters from scratch and consuming approximately 100 trillion tokens in total. To facilitate reproducibility and further research, we will progressively release all loss measurements and model checkpoints through our designated repository https://step-law.github.io/

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

The recent rapid progress in (self) supervised learning models is in large part predicted by empirical scaling laws: a model's performance scales proportionally to its size. Analogous scaling laws remain elusive for reinforcement learning domains, however, where increasing the parameter count of a model often hurts its final performance. In this paper, we demonstrate that incorporating Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) modules, and in particular Soft MoEs (Puigcerver et al., 2023), into value-based networks results in more parameter-scalable models, evidenced by substantial performance increases across a variety of training regimes and model sizes. This work thus provides strong empirical evidence towards developing scaling laws for reinforcement learning.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Recent breakthroughs in large models have highlighted the critical significance of data scale, labels and modals. In this paper, we introduce MS MARCO Web Search, the first large-scale information-rich web dataset, featuring millions of real clicked query-document labels. This dataset closely mimics real-world web document and query distribution, provides rich information for various kinds of downstream tasks and encourages research in various areas, such as generic end-to-end neural indexer models, generic embedding models, and next generation information access system with large language models. MS MARCO Web Search offers a retrieval benchmark with three web retrieval challenge tasks that demand innovations in both machine learning and information retrieval system research domains. As the first dataset that meets large, real and rich data requirements, MS MARCO Web Search paves the way for future advancements in AI and system research. MS MARCO Web Search dataset is available at: https://github.com/microsoft/MS-MARCO-Web-Search.

This paper introduces Qwen-GUI-3B, a lightweight Vision-Language Model (VLM) specifically designed for Graphical User Interface grounding tasks, achieving performance competitive with significantly larger models. Unlike large-scale VLMs (>7B parameters) that are computationally intensive and impractical for consumer-grade hardware, Qwen-GUI-3B delivers strong grounding accuracy while being fully trainable on a single GPU (RTX 4090). The model incorporates several key innovations: (i) combine cross-platform, multi-resolution dataset of 24K examples from diverse sources including mobile, desktop, and web GUI screenshots to effectively address data scarcity in high-resolution desktop environments; (ii) a two-stage fine-tuning strategy, where initial cross-platform training establishes robust GUI understanding, followed by specialized fine-tuning on high-resolution data to significantly enhance model adaptability; and (iii) data curation and redundancy reduction strategies, demonstrating that randomly sampling a smaller subset with reduced redundancy achieves performance comparable to larger datasets, emphasizing data diversity over sheer volume. Empirical evaluation on standard GUI grounding benchmarks-including ScreenSpot, ScreenSpot-v2, and the challenging ScreenSpot-Pro, highlights Qwen-GUI-3B's exceptional accuracy, achieving 84.9% on ScreenSpot and 86.4% on ScreenSpot-v2, surpassing prior models under 4B parameters. Ablation studies validate the critical role of balanced sampling and two-stage fine-tuning in enhancing robustness, particularly in high-resolution desktop scenarios. The Qwen-GUI-3B is available at: https://github.com/Han1018/Qwen-GUI-3B

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy through massive sampling in the decoding phase. We conduct quantitative investigations into the scaling law of task performance. Firstly, a strict task scaling law is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts. Secondly, underpinned by PassUntil, we observe concrete evidence of emergent abilities and ascertain that they are not in conflict with the continuity of performance improvement. Their semblance to break-through is that their scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function. We then introduce a mathematical definition for the emergent abilities. Through the definition, we refute a prevalent ``multi-step reasoning hypothesis'' regarding the genesis of emergent abilities and propose a new hypothesis with a satisfying fit to the observed scaling curve.

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

We present the TinyLLaVA framework that provides a unified perspective in designing and analyzing the small-scale Large Multimodal Models (LMMs). We empirically study the effects of different vision encoders, connection modules, language models, training data and training recipes. Our extensive experiments showed that better quality of data combined with better training recipes, smaller LMMs can consistently achieve on-par performances compared to bigger LMMs. Under our framework, we train a family of small-scale LMMs. Our best model, TinyLLaVA-3.1B, achieves better overall performance against existing 7B models such as LLaVA-1.5 and Qwen-VL. We hope our findings can serve as baselines for future research in terms of data scaling, training setups and model selections. Our model weights and codes will be made public.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these probabilities needed for predicting human processing difficulty -- while a long-standing belief held that models with lower perplexity would provide more accurate estimates of word predictability, and therefore lead to better reading time predictions, recent work has shown that for very large models, psycholinguistic predictive power decreases. One reason could be that language models might be more confident of their predictions than humans, because they have had exposure to several magnitudes more data. In this paper, we test what effect temperature-scaling of large language model (LLM) predictions has on surprisal estimates and their predictive power of reading times of English texts. Firstly, we show that calibration of large language models typically improves with model size, i.e. poorer calibration cannot account for poorer fit to reading times. Secondly, we find that temperature-scaling probabilities lead to a systematically better fit to reading times (up to 89% improvement in delta log likelihood), across several reading time corpora. Finally, we show that this improvement in fit is chiefly driven by words that are composed of multiple subword tokens.

For centuries, researchers have sought out ways to connect disparate areas of knowledge. While early scholars (Galileo, da Vinci, etc.) were experts across fields, specialization has taken hold later. With the advent of Artificial Intelligence, we can now explore relationships across areas (e.g., mechanics-biology) or disparate domains (e.g., failure mechanics-art). To achieve this, we use a fine-tuned Large Language Model (LLM), here for a subset of knowledge in multiscale materials failure. The approach includes the use of a general-purpose LLM to distill question-answer pairs from raw sources followed by LLM fine-tuning. The resulting MechGPT LLM foundation model is used in a series of computational experiments to explore its capacity for knowledge retrieval, various language tasks, hypothesis generation, and connecting knowledge across disparate areas. While the model has some ability to recall knowledge from training, we find that LLMs are particularly useful to extract structural insights through Ontological Knowledge Graphs. These interpretable graph structures provide explanatory insights, frameworks for new research questions, and visual representations of knowledge that also can be used in retrieval-augmented generation. Three versions of MechGPT are discussed, featuring different sizes from 13 billion to 70 billion parameters, and reaching context lengths of more than 10,000 tokens. This provides ample capacity for sophisticated retrieval augmented strategies, as well as agent-based modeling where multiple LLMs interact collaboratively and/or adversarially, the incorporation of new data from the literature or web searches, as well as multimodality.

We analyze how well pre-trained large language models (e.g., Llama2, GPT-4, Claude 3, etc) can do linear and non-linear regression when given in-context examples, without any additional training or gradient updates. Our findings reveal that several large language models (e.g., GPT-4, Claude 3) are able to perform regression tasks with a performance rivaling (or even outperforming) that of traditional supervised methods such as Random Forest, Bagging, or Gradient Boosting. For example, on the challenging Friedman #2 regression dataset, Claude 3 outperforms many supervised methods such as AdaBoost, SVM, Random Forest, KNN, or Gradient Boosting. We then investigate how well the performance of large language models scales with the number of in-context exemplars. We borrow from the notion of regret from online learning and empirically show that LLMs are capable of obtaining a sub-linear regret.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Large Language Models are known to capture real-world knowledge, allowing them to excel in many downstream tasks. Despite recent advances, these models are still prone to what are commonly known as hallucinations, causing them to emit unwanted and factually incorrect text. In this work, we propose a novel calibration method that can be used to combat hallucinations. We add a special [IDK] ("I don't know") token to the model's vocabulary and introduce an objective function that shifts probability mass to the [IDK] token for incorrect predictions. This approach allows the model to express uncertainty in its output explicitly. We evaluate our proposed method across multiple model architectures and factual downstream tasks. We find that models trained with our method are able to express uncertainty in places where they would previously make mistakes while suffering only a small loss of encoded knowledge. We further perform extensive ablation studies of multiple variations of our approach and provide a detailed analysis of the precision-recall tradeoff of our method.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

We present EMMa, an Extensible, Multimodal dataset of Amazon product listings that contains rich Material annotations. It contains more than 2.8 million objects, each with image(s), listing text, mass, price, product ratings, and position in Amazon's product-category taxonomy. We also design a comprehensive taxonomy of 182 physical materials (e.g., Plastic rightarrow Thermoplastic rightarrow Acrylic). Objects are annotated with one or more materials from this taxonomy. With the numerous attributes available for each object, we develop a Smart Labeling framework to quickly add new binary labels to all objects with very little manual labeling effort, making the dataset extensible. Each object attribute in our dataset can be included in either the model inputs or outputs, leading to combinatorial possibilities in task configurations. For example, we can train a model to predict the object category from the listing text, or the mass and price from the product listing image. EMMa offers a new benchmark for multi-task learning in computer vision and NLP, and allows practitioners to efficiently add new tasks and object attributes at scale.

This paper introduces ClimateGPT, a model family of domain-specific large language models that synthesize interdisciplinary research on climate change. We trained two 7B models from scratch on a science-oriented dataset of 300B tokens. For the first model, the 4.2B domain-specific tokens were included during pre-training and the second was adapted to the climate domain after pre-training. Additionally, ClimateGPT-7B, 13B and 70B are continuously pre-trained from Llama~2 on a domain-specific dataset of 4.2B tokens. Each model is instruction fine-tuned on a high-quality and human-generated domain-specific dataset that has been created in close cooperation with climate scientists. To reduce the number of hallucinations, we optimize the model for retrieval augmentation and propose a hierarchical retrieval strategy. To increase the accessibility of our model to non-English speakers, we propose to make use of cascaded machine translation and show that this approach can perform comparably to natively multilingual models while being easier to scale to a large number of languages. Further, to address the intrinsic interdisciplinary aspect of climate change we consider different research perspectives. Therefore, the model can produce in-depth answers focusing on different perspectives in addition to an overall answer. We propose a suite of automatic climate-specific benchmarks to evaluate LLMs. On these benchmarks, ClimateGPT-7B performs on par with the ten times larger Llama-2-70B Chat model while not degrading results on general domain benchmarks. Our human evaluation confirms the trends we saw in our benchmarks. All models were trained and evaluated using renewable energy and are released publicly.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

We present Open-MAGVIT2, a family of auto-regressive image generation models ranging from 300M to 1.5B. The Open-MAGVIT2 project produces an open-source replication of Google's MAGVIT-v2 tokenizer, a tokenizer with a super-large codebook (i.e., 2^{18} codes), and achieves the state-of-the-art reconstruction performance (1.17 rFID) on ImageNet 256 times 256. Furthermore, we explore its application in plain auto-regressive models and validate scalability properties. To assist auto-regressive models in predicting with a super-large vocabulary, we factorize it into two sub-vocabulary of different sizes by asymmetric token factorization, and further introduce "next sub-token prediction" to enhance sub-token interaction for better generation quality. We release all models and codes to foster innovation and creativity in the field of auto-regressive visual generation.

In this paper, we propose a new multi-scale face detector having an extremely tiny number of parameters (EXTD),less than 0.1 million, as well as achieving comparable performance to deep heavy detectors. While existing multi-scale face detectors extract feature maps with different scales from a single backbone network, our method generates the feature maps by iteratively reusing a shared lightweight and shallow backbone network. This iterative sharing of the backbone network significantly reduces the number of parameters, and also provides the abstract image semantics captured from the higher stage of the network layers to the lower-level feature map. The proposed idea is employed by various model architectures and evaluated by extensive experiments. From the experiments from WIDER FACE dataset, we show that the proposed face detector can handle faces with various scale and conditions, and achieved comparable performance to the more massive face detectors that few hundreds and tens times heavier in model size and floating point operations.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

We introduce DAHL, a benchmark dataset and automated evaluation system designed to assess hallucination in long-form text generation, specifically within the biomedical domain. Our benchmark dataset, meticulously curated from biomedical research papers, consists of 8,573 questions across 29 categories. DAHL evaluates fact-conflicting hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs) by deconstructing responses into atomic units, each representing a single piece of information. The accuracy of these responses is averaged to produce the DAHL Score, offering a more in-depth evaluation of hallucinations compared to previous methods that rely on multiple-choice tasks. We conduct experiments with 8 different models, finding that larger models tend to hallucinate less; however, beyond a model size of 7 to 8 billion parameters, further scaling does not significantly improve factual accuracy. The DAHL Score holds potential as an efficient alternative to human-annotated preference labels, being able to be expanded to other specialized domains. We release the dataset and code in public.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Temperature sampling is a conventional approach to diversify large language model predictions. As temperature increases, the prediction becomes diverse but also vulnerable to hallucinations -- generating tokens that are sensible but not factual. One common approach to mitigate hallucinations is to provide source/grounding documents and the model is trained to produce predictions that bind to and are attributable to the provided source. It appears that there is a trade-off between diversity and attribution. To mitigate any such trade-off, we propose to relax the constraint of having a fixed temperature over decoding steps, and a mechanism to guide the dynamic temperature according to its relevance to the source through KL-divergence. Our experiments justifies the trade-off, and shows that our sampling algorithm outperforms the conventional top-k and top-p algorithms in conversational question-answering and summarization tasks.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

Agglomerative models have recently emerged as a powerful approach to training vision foundation models, leveraging multi-teacher distillation from existing models such as CLIP, DINO, and SAM. This strategy enables the efficient creation of robust models, combining the strengths of individual teachers while significantly reducing computational and resource demands. In this paper, we thoroughly analyze state-of-the-art agglomerative models, identifying critical challenges including resolution mode shifts, teacher imbalance, idiosyncratic teacher artifacts, and an excessive number of output tokens. To address these issues, we propose several novel solutions: multi-resolution training, mosaic augmentation, and improved balancing of teacher loss functions. Specifically, in the context of Vision Language Models, we introduce a token compression technique to maintain high-resolution information within a fixed token count. We release our top-performing models, available in multiple scales (-B, -L, -H, and -g), alongside inference code and pretrained weights.

Artificial intelligence is transforming computational materials science, improving the prediction of material properties, and accelerating the discovery of novel materials. Recently, publicly available material data repositories have grown rapidly. This growth encompasses not only more materials, but also a greater variety and quantity of their associated properties. Existing machine learning efforts in materials science focus primarily on single-modality tasks, i.e., relationships between materials and a single physical property, thus not taking advantage of the rich and multimodal set of material properties. Here, we introduce Multimodal Learning for Materials (MultiMat), which enables self-supervised multi-modality training of foundation models for materials. We demonstrate our framework's potential using data from the Materials Project database on multiple axes: (i) MultiMat achieves state-of-the-art performance for challenging material property prediction tasks; (ii) MultiMat enables novel and accurate material discovery via latent space similarity, enabling screening for stable materials with desired properties; and (iii) MultiMat encodes interpretable emergent features that may provide novel scientific insights.

Generative language models define distributions over sequences of tokens that can represent essentially any combination of data modalities (e.g., any permutation of image tokens from VQ-VAEs, speech tokens from HuBERT, BPE tokens for language or code, and so on). To better understand the scaling properties of such mixed-modal models, we conducted over 250 experiments using seven different modalities and model sizes ranging from 8 million to 30 billion, trained on 5-100 billion tokens. We report new mixed-modal scaling laws that unify the contributions of individual modalities and the interactions between them. Specifically, we explicitly model the optimal synergy and competition due to data and model size as an additive term to previous uni-modal scaling laws. We also find four empirical phenomena observed during the training, such as emergent coordinate-ascent style training that naturally alternates between modalities, guidelines for selecting critical hyper-parameters, and connections between mixed-modal competition and training stability. Finally, we test our scaling law by training a 30B speech-text model, which significantly outperforms the corresponding unimodal models. Overall, our research provides valuable insights into the design and training of mixed-modal generative models, an important new class of unified models that have unique distributional properties.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

We present network embedding algorithms that capture information about a node from the local distribution over node attributes around it, as observed over random walks following an approach similar to Skip-gram. Observations from neighborhoods of different sizes are either pooled (AE) or encoded distinctly in a multi-scale approach (MUSAE). Capturing attribute-neighborhood relationships over multiple scales is useful for a diverse range of applications, including latent feature identification across disconnected networks with similar attributes. We prove theoretically that matrices of node-feature pointwise mutual information are implicitly factorized by the embeddings. Experiments show that our algorithms are robust, computationally efficient and outperform comparable models on social networks and web graphs.

Deep learning techniques are increasingly applied to scientific problems, where the precision of networks is crucial. Despite being deemed as universal function approximators, neural networks, in practice, struggle to reduce the prediction errors below O(10^{-5}) even with large network size and extended training iterations. To address this issue, we developed the multi-stage neural networks that divides the training process into different stages, with each stage using a new network that is optimized to fit the residue from the previous stage. Across successive stages, the residue magnitudes decreases substantially and follows an inverse power-law relationship with the residue frequencies. The multi-stage neural networks effectively mitigate the spectral biases associated with regular neural networks, enabling them to capture the high frequency feature of target functions. We demonstrate that the prediction error from the multi-stage training for both regression problems and physics-informed neural networks can nearly reach the machine-precision O(10^{-16}) of double-floating point within a finite number of iterations. Such levels of accuracy are rarely attainable using single neural networks alone.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) endeavors to predict future observations given historical data, playing a crucial role in time series data management systems. With advancements in large language models (LLMs), recent studies employ textual prompt tuning to infuse the knowledge of LLMs into MTSF. However, the deployment of LLMs often suffers from low efficiency during the inference phase. To address this problem, we introduce TimeKD, an efficient MTSF framework that leverages the calibrated language models and privileged knowledge distillation. TimeKD aims to generate high-quality future representations from the proposed cross-modality teacher model and cultivate an effective student model. The cross-modality teacher model adopts calibrated language models (CLMs) with ground truth prompts, motivated by the paradigm of Learning Under Privileged Information (LUPI). In addition, we design a subtractive cross attention (SCA) mechanism to refine these representations. To cultivate an effective student model, we propose an innovative privileged knowledge distillation (PKD) mechanism including correlation and feature distillation. PKD enables the student to replicate the teacher's behavior while minimizing their output discrepancy. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed TimeKD.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Mixture of Experts (MoE) architectures have significantly increased computational efficiency in both research and real-world applications of large-scale machine learning models. However, their scalability and efficiency under memory constraints remain relatively underexplored. In this work, we present joint scaling laws for dense and MoE models, incorporating key factors such as the number of active parameters, dataset size, and the number of experts. Our findings provide a principled framework for selecting the optimal MoE configuration under fixed memory and compute budgets. Surprisingly, we show that MoE models can be more memory-efficient than dense models, contradicting conventional wisdom. To derive and validate the theoretical predictions of our scaling laws, we conduct over 280 experiments with up to 2.7B active parameters and up to 5B total parameters. These results offer actionable insights for designing and deploying MoE models in practical large-scale training scenarios.

Ever since their conception, Transformers have taken over traditional sequence models in many tasks, such as NLP, image classification, and video/audio processing, for their fast training and superior performance. Much of the merit is attributable to positional encoding and multi-head attention. However, Transformers fall short in learning long-range dependencies mainly due to the quadratic complexity scaled with context length, in terms of both time and space. Consequently, over the past five years, a myriad of methods has been proposed to make Transformers more efficient. In this work, we first take a step back, study and compare existing solutions to long-sequence modeling in terms of their pure mathematical formulation. Specifically, we summarize them using a unified template, given their shared nature of token mixing. Through benchmarks, we then demonstrate that long context length does yield better performance, albeit application-dependent, and traditional Transformer models fall short in taking advantage of long-range dependencies. Next, inspired by emerging sparse models of huge capacity, we propose a machine learning system for handling million-scale dependencies. As a proof of concept, we evaluate the performance of one essential component of this system, namely, the distributed multi-head attention. We show that our algorithm can scale up attention computation by almost 40times using four GeForce RTX 4090 GPUs, compared to vanilla multi-head attention mechanism. We believe this study is an instrumental step towards modeling million-scale dependencies.

The analysis of emotions expressed in text has numerous applications. In contrast to categorical analysis, focused on classifying emotions according to a pre-defined set of common classes, dimensional approaches can offer a more nuanced way to distinguish between different emotions. Still, dimensional methods have been less studied in the literature. Considering a valence-arousal dimensional space, this work assesses the use of pre-trained Transformers to predict these two dimensions on a continuous scale, with input texts from multiple languages and domains. We specifically combined multiple annotated datasets from previous studies, corresponding to either emotional lexica or short text documents, and evaluated models of multiple sizes and trained under different settings. Our results show that model size can have a significant impact on the quality of predictions, and that by fine-tuning a large model we can confidently predict valence and arousal in multiple languages. We make available the code, models, and supporting data.

There have been a lot of interest in the scaling properties of Transformer models. However, not much has been done on the front of investigating the effect of scaling properties of different inductive biases and model architectures. Do model architectures scale differently? If so, how does inductive bias affect scaling behaviour? How does this influence upstream (pretraining) and downstream (transfer)? This paper conducts a systematic study of scaling behaviour of ten diverse model architectures such as Transformers, Switch Transformers, Universal Transformers, Dynamic convolutions, Performers, and recently proposed MLP-Mixers. Via extensive experiments, we show that (1) architecture is an indeed an important consideration when performing scaling and (2) the best performing model can fluctuate at different scales. We believe that the findings outlined in this work has significant implications to how model architectures are currently evaluated in the community.

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has been increasingly appealing to the society of object Re-Identification (ReID), for that task-specific architectures significantly improve the retrieval performance. Previous works explore new optimizing targets and search spaces for NAS ReID, yet they neglect the difference of training schemes between image classification and ReID. In this work, we propose a novel Twins Contrastive Mechanism (TCM) to provide more appropriate supervision for ReID architecture search. TCM reduces the category overlaps between the training and validation data, and assists NAS in simulating real-world ReID training schemes. We then design a Multi-Scale Interaction (MSI) search space to search for rational interaction operations between multi-scale features. In addition, we introduce a Spatial Alignment Module (SAM) to further enhance the attention consistency confronted with images from different sources. Under the proposed NAS scheme, a specific architecture is automatically searched, named as MSINet. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art ReID methods on both in-domain and cross-domain scenarios. Source code available in https://github.com/vimar-gu/MSINet.

The advancement of transformer neural networks has significantly elevated the capabilities of sentence similarity models, particularly in creating effective vector representations of natural language inputs. However, these models face notable challenges in domain-specific contexts, especially in highly specialized scientific sub-fields. Traditional methods often struggle in this regime, either overgeneralizing similarities within a niche or being overly sensitive to minor differences, resulting in inaccurate text classification and subpar vector representation. In an era where retrieval augmentation and search are increasingly crucial, precise and concise numerical representations are essential. In this paper, we target this issue by assembling niche datasets using co-citations as a similarity metric, focusing on biomedical domains. We employ two key strategies for fine-tuning state-of-the-art models: 1. Domain-specific Fine-Tuning, which tailors pretrained models to a single domain, and 2. Universal Applicability with Mixture of Experts (MoE), adapting pretrained models with enforced routing for multiple domains simultaneously. Our training approach emphasizes the use of abstracts for faster training, incorporating Multiple Negative Rankings loss for efficient contrastive learning. Notably, our MoE variants, equipped with N experts, achieve the efficacy of N individual models, heralding a new era of versatile, One-Size-Fits-All transformer networks for various tasks. This methodology marks significant advancements in scientific text classification metrics and holds promise for enhancing vector database search and compilation.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

The rapid growth of dataset scales has been a key driver in advancing deep learning research. However, as dataset scale increases, the training process becomes increasingly inefficient due to the presence of low-value samples, including excessive redundant samples, overly challenging samples, and inefficient easy samples that contribute little to model improvement.To address this challenge, we propose Scale Efficient Training (SeTa) for large datasets, a dynamic sample pruning approach that losslessly reduces training time. To remove low-value samples, SeTa first performs random pruning to eliminate redundant samples, then clusters the remaining samples according to their learning difficulty measured by loss. Building upon this clustering, a sliding window strategy is employed to progressively remove both overly challenging and inefficient easy clusters following an easy-to-hard curriculum.We conduct extensive experiments on large-scale synthetic datasets, including ToCa, SS1M, and ST+MJ, each containing over 3 million samples.SeTa reduces training costs by up to 50\% while maintaining or improving performance, with minimal degradation even at 70\% cost reduction. Furthermore, experiments on various scale real datasets across various backbones (CNNs, Transformers, and Mambas) and diverse tasks (instruction tuning, multi-view stereo, geo-localization, composed image retrieval, referring image segmentation) demonstrate the powerful effectiveness and universality of our approach. Code is available at https://github.com/mrazhou/SeTa.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Scaling up language models has been empirically shown to improve performance on a wide range of downstream tasks. However, if we were to observe worse performance as a function of scale ("inverse scaling") on certain tasks, this would indicate that scaling can also encourage behaviors that are misaligned with human preferences. The Inverse Scaling Prize (McKenzie et al. 2022) identified eleven such inverse scaling tasks, evaluated on models of up to 280B parameters and up to 500 zettaFLOPs of training compute. This paper takes a closer look at these inverse scaling tasks. We evaluate models of up to 540B parameters, trained on five times more compute than those evaluated in the Inverse Scaling Prize. With this increased range of model sizes and training compute, only four out of the eleven tasks remain inverse scaling. Six out of the eleven tasks exhibit "U-shaped scaling", where performance decreases up to a certain size, and then increases again up to the largest model evaluated (the one remaining task displays positive scaling). In addition, we find that 1-shot examples and chain-of-thought can help mitigate undesirable scaling patterns even further. U-shaped scaling suggests that the inverse scaling trend observed in McKenzie et al. (2022) may not continue to hold for larger models, which we attribute to the presence of distractor tasks that only sufficiently large models can avoid.

The scaling of Transformers has driven breakthrough capabilities for language models. At present, the largest large language models (LLMs) contain upwards of 100B parameters. Vision Transformers (ViT) have introduced the same architecture to image and video modelling, but these have not yet been successfully scaled to nearly the same degree; the largest dense ViT contains 4B parameters (Chen et al., 2022). We present a recipe for highly efficient and stable training of a 22B-parameter ViT (ViT-22B) and perform a wide variety of experiments on the resulting model. When evaluated on downstream tasks (often with a lightweight linear model on frozen features), ViT-22B demonstrates increasing performance with scale. We further observe other interesting benefits of scale, including an improved tradeoff between fairness and performance, state-of-the-art alignment to human visual perception in terms of shape/texture bias, and improved robustness. ViT-22B demonstrates the potential for "LLM-like" scaling in vision, and provides key steps towards getting there.

Rapid progress in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) highlights the need to introduce challenging yet realistic benchmarks to the academic community, while existing benchmarks primarily focus on understanding simple natural images and short context. In this paper, we present MULTI as a cutting-edge benchmark for evaluating MLLMs on understanding complex tables and images, and reasoning with long context. MULTI provides multimodal inputs and requires responses that are either precise or open-ended, reflecting real-life examination styles. MULTI includes over 18,000 questions and challenges MLLMs with a variety of tasks, ranging from formula derivation to image detail analysis and cross-modality reasoning. We also introduce MULTI-Elite, a 500-question selected hard subset, and MULTI-Extend, with more than 4,500 external knowledge context pieces. Our evaluation indicates significant potential for MLLM advancement, with GPT-4V achieving a 63.7% accuracy rate on MULTI, in contrast to other MLLMs scoring between 28.5% and 55.3%. MULTI serves not only as a robust evaluation platform but also paves the way for the development of expert-level AI.

Scaling deep learning models has been at the heart of recent revolutions in language modelling and image generation. Practitioners have observed a strong relationship between model size, dataset size, and performance. However, structure-based architectures such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are yet to show the benefits of scale mainly due to the lower efficiency of sparse operations, large data requirements, and lack of clarity about the effectiveness of various architectures. We address this drawback of GNNs by studying their scaling behavior. Specifically, we analyze message-passing networks, graph Transformers, and hybrid architectures on the largest public collection of 2D molecular graphs. For the first time, we observe that GNNs benefit tremendously from the increasing scale of depth, width, number of molecules, number of labels, and the diversity in the pretraining datasets, resulting in a 30.25% improvement when scaling to 1 billion parameters and 28.98% improvement when increasing size of dataset to eightfold. We further demonstrate strong finetuning scaling behavior on 38 tasks, outclassing previous large models. We hope that our work paves the way for an era where foundational GNNs drive pharmaceutical drug discovery.

Language models have been shown to exhibit positive scaling, where performance improves as models are scaled up in terms of size, compute, or data. In this work, we introduce NeQA, a dataset consisting of questions with negation in which language models do not exhibit straightforward positive scaling. We show that this task can exhibit inverse scaling, U-shaped scaling, or positive scaling, and the three scaling trends shift in this order as we use more powerful prompting methods or model families. We hypothesize that solving NeQA depends on two subtasks: question answering (task 1) and negation understanding (task 2). We find that task 1 has linear scaling, while task 2 has sigmoid-shaped scaling with an emergent transition point, and composing these two scaling trends yields the final scaling trend of NeQA. Our work reveals and provides a way to analyze the complex scaling trends of language models.

Time series forecasting is a foundational task across domains, such as finance, healthcare, and environmental monitoring. While recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalisation through large-scale pretraining, existing models operate predominantly in a unimodal setting, ignoring the rich multimodal context, such as visual and textual signals, that often accompanies time series data in real-world scenarios. This paper introduces a novel parameter-efficient multimodal framework, UniCast, that extends TSFMs to jointly leverage time series, vision, and text modalities for enhanced forecasting performance. Our method integrates modality-specific embeddings from pretrained Vision and Text Encoders with a frozen TSFM via soft prompt tuning, enabling efficient adaptation with minimal parameter updates. This design not only preserves the generalisation strength of the foundation model but also enables effective cross-modal interaction. Extensive experiments across diverse time-series forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that UniCast consistently and significantly outperforms all existing TSFM baselines. The findings highlight the critical role of multimodal context in advancing the next generation of general-purpose time series forecasters.

A shared goal of several machine learning communities like continual learning, meta-learning and transfer learning, is to design algorithms and models that efficiently and robustly adapt to unseen tasks. An even more ambitious goal is to build models that never stop adapting, and that become increasingly more efficient through time by suitably transferring the accrued knowledge. Beyond the study of the actual learning algorithm and model architecture, there are several hurdles towards our quest to build such models, such as the choice of learning protocol, metric of success and data needed to validate research hypotheses. In this work, we introduce the Never-Ending VIsual-classification Stream (NEVIS'22), a benchmark consisting of a stream of over 100 visual classification tasks, sorted chronologically and extracted from papers sampled uniformly from computer vision proceedings spanning the last three decades. The resulting stream reflects what the research community thought was meaningful at any point in time, and it serves as an ideal test bed to assess how well models can adapt to new tasks, and do so better and more efficiently as time goes by. Despite being limited to classification, the resulting stream has a rich diversity of tasks from OCR, to texture analysis, scene recognition, and so forth. The diversity is also reflected in the wide range of dataset sizes, spanning over four orders of magnitude. Overall, NEVIS'22 poses an unprecedented challenge for current sequential learning approaches due to the scale and diversity of tasks, yet with a low entry barrier as it is limited to a single modality and well understood supervised learning problems. Moreover, we provide a reference implementation including strong baselines and an evaluation protocol to compare methods in terms of their trade-off between accuracy and compute.

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

In studies of transferable learning, scaling laws are obtained for various important foundation models to predict their properties and performance at larger scales. We show here how scaling law derivation can also be used for model and dataset comparison, allowing to decide which procedure is to be preferred for pre-training. For the first time, full scaling laws based on dense measurements across a wide span of model and samples seen scales are derived for two important language-vision learning procedures, CLIP and MaMMUT, that use either contrastive only or contrastive and captioning text generative loss. Ensuring sufficient prediction accuracy for held out points, we use derived scaling laws to compare both models, obtaining evidence for MaMMUT's stronger improvement with scale and better sample efficiency than standard CLIP. To strengthen validity of the comparison, we show scaling laws for various downstream tasks, classification, retrieval, and segmentation, and for different open datasets, DataComp, DFN and Re-LAION, observing consistently the same trends. We show that comparison can also be performed when deriving scaling laws with a constant learning rate schedule, reducing compute cost. Accurate derivation of scaling laws provides thus means to perform model and dataset comparison across scale spans, avoiding misleading conclusions based on measurements from single reference scales only, paving the road for systematic comparison and improvement of open foundation models and datasets for their creation. We release all the pre-trained models with their intermediate checkpoints, including openMaMMUT-L/14, which achieves 80.3% zero-shot ImageNet-1k accuracy, trained on 12.8B samples from DataComp-1.4B. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/scaling-laws-for-comparison.

Large language models are extensively applied across a wide range of tasks, such as customer support, content creation, educational tutoring, and providing financial guidance. However, a well-known drawback is their predisposition to generate hallucinations. This damages the trustworthiness of the information these models provide, impacting decision-making and user confidence. We propose a method to detect hallucinations by looking at the structure of the latent space and finding associations within hallucinated and non-hallucinated generations. We create a graph structure that connects generations that lie closely in the embedding space. Moreover, we employ a Graph Attention Network which utilizes message passing to aggregate information from neighboring nodes and assigns varying degrees of importance to each neighbor based on their relevance. Our findings show that 1) there exists a structure in the latent space that differentiates between hallucinated and non-hallucinated generations, 2) Graph Attention Networks can learn this structure and generalize it to unseen generations, and 3) the robustness of our method is enhanced when incorporating contrastive learning. When evaluated against evidence-based benchmarks, our model performs similarly without access to search-based methods.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Large Transformers have achieved state-of-the-art performance across many tasks. Most open-source libraries on scaling Transformers focus on improving training or inference with better parallelization. In this work, we present TorchScale, an open-source toolkit that allows researchers and developers to scale up Transformers efficiently and effectively. TorchScale has the implementation of several modeling techniques, which can improve modeling generality and capability, as well as training stability and efficiency. Experimental results on language modeling and neural machine translation demonstrate that TorchScale can successfully scale Transformers to different sizes without tears. The library is available at https://aka.ms/torchscale.

The recent breakthroughs in natural language processing for model pretraining on large quantities of data have opened the way for similar foundation models in computer vision. These models could greatly simplify the use of images in any system by producing all-purpose visual features, i.e., features that work across image distributions and tasks without finetuning. This work shows that existing pretraining methods, especially self-supervised methods, can produce such features if trained on enough curated data from diverse sources. We revisit existing approaches and combine different techniques to scale our pretraining in terms of data and model size. Most of the technical contributions aim at accelerating and stabilizing the training at scale. In terms of data, we propose an automatic pipeline to build a dedicated, diverse, and curated image dataset instead of uncurated data, as typically done in the self-supervised literature. In terms of models, we train a ViT model (Dosovitskiy et al., 2020) with 1B parameters and distill it into a series of smaller models that surpass the best available all-purpose features, OpenCLIP (Ilharco et al., 2021) on most of the benchmarks at image and pixel levels.

Severe convective weather events, such as hail, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, often occur quickly yet cause significant damage, costing billions of dollars every year. This highlights the importance of forecasting severe weather threats hours in advance to better prepare meteorologists and residents in at-risk areas. Can modern large foundation models perform such forecasting? Existing weather benchmarks typically focus only on predicting time-series changes in certain weather parameters (e.g., temperature, moisture) with text-only features. In this work, we introduce WeatherQA, the first multimodal dataset designed for machines to reason about complex combinations of weather parameters (a.k.a., ingredients) and predict severe weather in real-world scenarios. The dataset includes over 8,000 (multi-images, text) pairs for diverse severe weather events. Each pair contains rich information crucial for forecasting -- the images describe the ingredients capturing environmental instability, surface observations, and radar reflectivity, and the text contains forecast analyses written by human experts. With WeatherQA, we evaluate state-of-the-art vision language models, including GPT4, Claude3.5, Gemini-1.5, and a fine-tuned Llama3-based VLM, by designing two challenging tasks: (1) multi-choice QA for predicting affected area and (2) classification of the development potential of severe convection. These tasks require deep understanding of domain knowledge (e.g., atmospheric dynamics) and complex reasoning over multimodal data (e.g., interactions between weather parameters). We show a substantial gap between the strongest VLM, GPT4o, and human reasoning. Our comprehensive case study with meteorologists further reveals the weaknesses of the models, suggesting that better training and data integration are necessary to bridge this gap. WeatherQA link: https://github.com/chengqianma/WeatherQA.

We present a systematic investigation of Multi-modal Retrieval Augmented Multi-modal Generation (M^2RAG), a novel task that enables foundation models to process multi-modal web content and generate multi-modal responses, which exhibits better information density and readability. Despite its potential impact, M^2RAG remains understudied, lacking comprehensive analysis and high-quality data resources. To address this gap, we establish a comprehensive benchmark through a rigorous data curation pipeline, and employ text-modal metrics and multi-modal metrics based on foundation models for evaluation. We further propose several strategies for foundation models to process M^2RAG effectively and construct a training set by filtering high-quality samples using designed metrics. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the reliability of our proposed metrics, a landscape of model performance within our designed strategies, and show that our fine-tuned 7B-8B models outperform the state-of-the-art GPT-4o model. Additionally, we perform fine-grained analyses across diverse domains and validate the effectiveness of our designs in data curation pipeline. All resources, including codes, datasets, and model weights, will be publicly released.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Low precision training and inference affect both the quality and cost of language models, but current scaling laws do not account for this. In this work, we devise "precision-aware" scaling laws for both training and inference. We propose that training in lower precision reduces the model's "effective parameter count," allowing us to predict the additional loss incurred from training in low precision and post-train quantization. For inference, we find that the degradation introduced by post-training quantization increases as models are trained on more data, eventually making additional pretraining data actively harmful. For training, our scaling laws allow us to predict the loss of a model with different parts in different precisions, and suggest that training larger models in lower precision may be compute optimal. We unify the scaling laws for post and pretraining quantization to arrive at a single functional form that predicts degradation from training and inference in varied precisions. We fit on over 465 pretraining runs and validate our predictions on model sizes up to 1.7B parameters trained on up to 26B tokens.

Learning arguably involves the discovery and memorization of abstract rules. The aim of this paper is to study associative memory mechanisms. Our model is based on high-dimensional matrices consisting of outer products of embeddings, which relates to the inner layers of transformer language models. We derive precise scaling laws with respect to sample size and parameter size, and discuss the statistical efficiency of different estimators, including optimization-based algorithms. We provide extensive numerical experiments to validate and interpret theoretical results, including fine-grained visualizations of the stored memory associations.

Recently, recommender systems have been able to emit substantially improved recommendations by leveraging user-provided reviews. Existing methods typically merge all reviews of a given user or item into a long document, and then process user and item documents in the same manner. In practice, however, these two sets of reviews are notably different: users' reviews reflect a variety of items that they have bought and are hence very heterogeneous in their topics, while an item's reviews pertain only to that single item and are thus topically homogeneous. In this work, we develop a novel neural network model that properly accounts for this important difference by means of asymmetric attentive modules. The user module learns to attend to only those signals that are relevant with respect to the target item, whereas the item module learns to extract the most salient contents with regard to properties of the item. Our multi-hierarchical paradigm accounts for the fact that neither are all reviews equally useful, nor are all sentences within each review equally pertinent. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across a broad range of tasks but their knowledge and abilities in the geographic and geospatial domains are yet to be explored, despite potential wide-ranging benefits to navigation, environmental research, urban development, and disaster response. We conduct a series of experiments exploring various vision capabilities of MLLMs within these domains, particularly focusing on the frontier model GPT-4V, and benchmark its performance against open-source counterparts. Our methodology involves challenging these models with a small-scale geographic benchmark consisting of a suite of visual tasks, testing their abilities across a spectrum of complexity. The analysis uncovers not only where such models excel, including instances where they outperform humans, but also where they falter, providing a balanced view of their capabilities in the geographic domain. To enable the comparison and evaluation of future models, our benchmark will be publicly released.