Daily Papers

Understanding and inferring causal relationships from texts is a core aspect of human cognition and is essential for advancing large language models (LLMs) towards artificial general intelligence. Existing work primarily focuses on synthetically generated texts which involve simple causal relationships explicitly mentioned in the text. This fails to reflect the complexities of real-world tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether LLMs are capable of inferring causal relationships from real-world texts. We develop a benchmark drawn from real-world academic literature which includes diverse texts with respect to length, complexity of relationships (different levels of explicitness, number of events, and causal relationships), and domains and sub-domains. To the best of our knowledge, our benchmark is the first-ever real-world dataset for this task. Our experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs evaluated on our proposed benchmark demonstrate significant challenges, with the best-performing model achieving an average F1 score of only 0.477. Analysis reveals common pitfalls: difficulty with implicitly stated information, in distinguishing relevant causal factors from surrounding contextual details, and with connecting causally relevant information spread across lengthy textual passages. By systematically characterizing these deficiencies, our benchmark offers targeted insights for further research into advancing LLM causal reasoning.

Understanding narratives requires reasoning about the cause-and-effect relationships between events mentioned in the text. While existing foundation models yield impressive results in many NLP tasks requiring reasoning, it is unclear whether they understand the complexity of the underlying network of causal relationships of events in narratives. In this work, we present CRAB, a new Causal Reasoning Assessment Benchmark designed to evaluate causal understanding of events in real-world narratives. CRAB contains fine-grained, contextual causality annotations for ~2.7K pairs of real-world events that describe various newsworthy event timelines (e.g., the acquisition of Twitter by Elon Musk). Using CRAB, we measure the performance of several large language models, demonstrating that most systems achieve poor performance on the task. Motivated by classical causal principles, we also analyze the causal structures of groups of events in CRAB, and find that models perform worse on causal reasoning when events are derived from complex causal structures compared to simple linear causal chains. We make our dataset and code available to the research community.

Causality detection draws plenty of attention in the field of Natural Language Processing and linguistics research. It has essential applications in information retrieval, event prediction, question answering, financial analysis, and market research. In this study, we explore several methods to identify and extract cause-effect pairs in financial documents using transformers. For this purpose, we propose an approach that combines POS tagging with the BIO scheme, which can be integrated with modern transformer models to address this challenge of identifying causality in a given text. Our best methodology achieves an F1-Score of 0.9551, and an Exact Match Score of 0.8777 on the blind test in the FinCausal-2021 Shared Task at the FinCausal 2021 Workshop.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Understanding causal relationships between machines is crucial for fault diagnosis and optimization in manufacturing processes. Real-world datasets frequently exhibit up to 90% missing data and high dimensionality from hundreds of sensors. These datasets also include domain-specific expert knowledge and chronological order information, reflecting the recording order across different machines, which is pivotal for discerning causal relationships within the manufacturing data. However, previous methods for handling missing data in scenarios akin to real-world conditions have not been able to effectively utilize expert knowledge. Conversely, prior methods that can incorporate expert knowledge struggle with datasets that exhibit missing values. Therefore, we propose COKE to construct causal graphs in manufacturing datasets by leveraging expert knowledge and chronological order among sensors without imputing missing data. Utilizing the characteristics of the recipe, we maximize the use of samples with missing values, derive embeddings from intersections with an initial graph that incorporates expert knowledge and chronological order, and create a sensor ordering graph. The graph-generating process has been optimized by an actor-critic architecture to obtain a final graph that has a maximum reward. Experimental evaluations in diverse settings of sensor quantities and missing proportions demonstrate that our approach compared with the benchmark methods shows an average improvement of 39.9% in the F1-score. Moreover, the F1-score improvement can reach 62.6% when considering the configuration similar to real-world datasets, and 85.0% in real-world semiconductor datasets. The source code is available at https://github.com/OuTingYun/COKE.

Recovering causal relationships from data is an important problem. Using observational data, one can typically only recover causal graphs up to a Markov equivalence class and additional assumptions or interventional data are needed for complete recovery. In this work, under some standard assumptions, we study causal graph discovery via adaptive interventions with node-dependent interventional costs. For this setting, we show that no algorithm can achieve an approximation guarantee that is asymptotically better than linear in the number of vertices with respect to the verification number; a well-established benchmark for adaptive search algorithms. Motivated by this negative result, we define a new benchmark that captures the worst-case interventional cost for any search algorithm. Furthermore, with respect to this new benchmark, we provide adaptive search algorithms that achieve logarithmic approximations under various settings: atomic, bounded size interventions and generalized cost objectives.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

In this paper, the causal bandit problem is investigated, in which the objective is to select an optimal sequence of interventions on nodes in a causal graph. It is assumed that the graph is governed by linear structural equations; it is further assumed that both the causal topology and the distribution of interventions are unknown. By exploiting the causal relationships between the nodes whose signals contribute to the reward, interventions are optimized. First, based on the difference between the two types of graph identification errors (false positives and negatives), a causal graph learning method is proposed, which strongly reduces sample complexity relative to the prior art by learning sub-graphs. Under the assumption of Gaussian exogenous inputs and minimum-mean squared error weight estimation, a new uncertainty bound tailored to the causal bandit problem is derived. This uncertainty bound drives an upper confidence bound based intervention selection to optimize the reward. To cope with non-stationary bandits, a sub-graph change detection mechanism is proposed, with high sample efficiency. Numerical results compare the new methodology to existing schemes and show a substantial performance improvement in both stationary and non-stationary settings. Compared to existing approaches, the proposed scheme takes 67% fewer samples to learn the causal structure and achieves an average reward gain of 85%.

Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods often suffer from sample-inefficiency, resulting from blind exploration strategies that neglect causal relationships among states, actions, and rewards. Although recent causal approaches aim to address this problem, they lack grounded modeling of reward-guided causal understanding of states and actions for goal-orientation, thus impairing learning efficiency. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel method named Causal Information Prioritization (CIP) that improves sample efficiency by leveraging factored MDPs to infer causal relationships between different dimensions of states and actions with respect to rewards, enabling the prioritization of causal information. Specifically, CIP identifies and leverages causal relationships between states and rewards to execute counterfactual data augmentation to prioritize high-impact state features under the causal understanding of the environments. Moreover, CIP integrates a causality-aware empowerment learning objective, which significantly enhances the agent's execution of reward-guided actions for more efficient exploration in complex environments. To fully assess the effectiveness of CIP, we conduct extensive experiments across 39 tasks in 5 diverse continuous control environments, encompassing both locomotion and manipulation skills learning with pixel-based and sparse reward settings. Experimental results demonstrate that CIP consistently outperforms existing RL methods across a wide range of scenarios.

Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal relationships between pandemic characteristics (e.g. number of infections and deaths) and Twitter activity as well as public sentiment. Our results show that the proposed method can successfully capture the epidemiological domain knowledge and identify variables that affect public attention and sentiment. We believe our work contributes to the field of infodemiology by distinguishing events that correlate with public attention from events that cause public attention.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

The goal of video summarization is to automatically shorten videos such that it conveys the overall story without losing relevant information. In many application scenarios, improper video summarization can have a large impact. For example in forensics, the quality of the generated video summary will affect an investigator's judgment while in journalism it might yield undesired bias. Because of this, modeling explainability is a key concern. One of the best ways to address the explainability challenge is to uncover the causal relations that steer the process and lead to the result. Current machine learning-based video summarization algorithms learn optimal parameters but do not uncover causal relationships. Hence, they suffer from a relative lack of explainability. In this work, a Causal Explainer, dubbed Causalainer, is proposed to address this issue. Multiple meaningful random variables and their joint distributions are introduced to characterize the behaviors of key components in the problem of video summarization. In addition, helper distributions are introduced to enhance the effectiveness of model training. In visual-textual input scenarios, the extra input can decrease the model performance. A causal semantics extractor is designed to tackle this issue by effectively distilling the mutual information from the visual and textual inputs. Experimental results on commonly used benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance while being more explainable.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across various domains. However, a fundamental question remains: Can LLMs effectively utilize causal knowledge for prediction and generation? Through empirical studies, we find that LLMs trained directly on large-scale data often capture spurious correlations rather than true causal relationships, leading to suboptimal performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. To address this challenge, we propose Causal Attention Tuning (CAT), a novel approach that injects fine-grained causal knowledge into the attention mechanism. We propose an automated pipeline that leverages human priors to automatically generate token-level causal signals and introduce the Re-Attention mechanism to guide training, helping the model focus on causal structures while mitigating noise and biases in attention scores. Experimental results on our proposed Spurious Token Game (STG) benchmark and multiple downstream tasks demonstrate that our approach effectively leverages causal knowledge for prediction and remains robust in OOD scenarios. Implementation details can be found at https://github.com/Kairong-Han/CAT.

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has significantly enhanced large language models (LLMs) in knowledge-intensive tasks by incorporating external knowledge retrieval. However, existing RAG frameworks primarily rely on semantic similarity and correlation-driven retrieval, limiting their ability to distinguish true causal relationships from spurious associations. This results in responses that may be factually grounded but fail to establish cause-and-effect mechanisms, leading to incomplete or misleading insights. To address this issue, we introduce Causal Dynamic Feedback for Adaptive Retrieval-Augmented Generation (CDF-RAG), a framework designed to improve causal consistency, factual accuracy, and explainability in generative reasoning. CDF-RAG iteratively refines queries, retrieves structured causal graphs, and enables multi-hop causal reasoning across interconnected knowledge sources. Additionally, it validates responses against causal pathways, ensuring logically coherent and factually grounded outputs. We evaluate CDF-RAG on four diverse datasets, demonstrating its ability to improve response accuracy and causal correctness over existing RAG-based methods. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ elakhatibi/CDF-RAG.

Faithful evaluation of language model capabilities is crucial for deriving actionable insights that can inform model development. However, rigorous causal evaluations in this domain face significant methodological challenges, including complex confounding effects and prohibitive computational costs associated with extensive retraining. To tackle these challenges, we propose a causal representation learning framework wherein observed benchmark performance is modeled as a linear transformation of a few latent capability factors. Crucially, these latent factors are identified as causally interrelated after appropriately controlling for the base model as a common confounder. Applying this approach to a comprehensive dataset encompassing over 1500 models evaluated across six benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard, we identify a concise three-node linear causal structure that reliably explains the observed performance variations. Further interpretation of this causal structure provides substantial scientific insights beyond simple numerical rankings: specifically, we reveal a clear causal direction starting from general problem-solving capabilities, advancing through instruction-following proficiency, and culminating in mathematical reasoning ability. Our results underscore the essential role of carefully controlling base model variations during evaluation, a step critical to accurately uncovering the underlying causal relationships among latent model capabilities.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant progress in performing complex tasks. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has been effective in aligning LLMs with human preferences, it is susceptible to spurious correlations in reward modeling. Consequently, it often introduces biases-such as length bias, sycophancy, conceptual bias, and discrimination that hinder the model's ability to capture true causal relationships. To address this, we propose a novel causal reward modeling approach that integrates causal inference to mitigate these spurious correlations. Our method enforces counterfactual invariance, ensuring reward predictions remain consistent when irrelevant variables are altered. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we show that our approach mitigates various types of spurious correlations effectively, resulting in more reliable and fair alignment of LLMs with human preferences. As a drop-in enhancement to the existing RLHF workflow, our causal reward modeling provides a practical way to improve the trustworthiness and fairness of LLM finetuning.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

In real-world scenarios, the application of reinforcement learning is significantly challenged by complex non-stationarity. Most existing methods attempt to model changes in the environment explicitly, often requiring impractical prior knowledge of environments. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, positing that non-stationarity can propagate and accumulate through complex causal relationships during state transitions, thereby compounding its sophistication and affecting policy learning. We believe that this challenge can be more effectively addressed by implicitly tracing the causal origin of non-stationarity. To this end, we introduce the Causal-Origin REPresentation (COREP) algorithm. COREP primarily employs a guided updating mechanism to learn a stable graph representation for the state, termed as causal-origin representation. By leveraging this representation, the learned policy exhibits impressive resilience to non-stationarity. We supplement our approach with a theoretical analysis grounded in the causal interpretation for non-stationary reinforcement learning, advocating for the validity of the causal-origin representation. Experimental results further demonstrate the superior performance of COREP over existing methods in tackling non-stationarity problems.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

In this study, we initiate an exploration into video understanding by introducing VideoChat, an end-to-end chat-centric video understanding system. It integrates video foundation models and large language models via a learnable neural interface, excelling in spatiotemporal reasoning, event localization, and causal relationship inference. To instructively tune this system, we propose a video-centric instruction dataset, composed of thousands of videos matched with detailed descriptions and conversations. This dataset emphasizes spatiotemporal reasoning and causal relationships, providing a valuable asset for training chat-centric video understanding systems. Preliminary qualitative experiments reveal our system's potential across a broad spectrum of video applications and set the standard for future research. Access our code and data at https://github.com/OpenGVLab/Ask-Anything

The internet contains a wealth of knowledge -- from the birthdays of historical figures to tutorials on how to code -- all of which may be learned by language models. However, there is a huge variability in the number of times a given piece of information appears on the web. In this paper, we study the relationship between the knowledge memorized by large language models and the information in their pre-training datasets. In particular, we show that a language model's ability to answer a fact-based question relates to how many documents associated with that question were seen during pre-training. We identify these relevant documents by entity linking pre-training datasets and counting documents that contain the same entities as a given question-answer pair. Our results demonstrate strong correlational and causal relationships between accuracy and relevant document count for numerous question answering datasets (e.g., TriviaQA), pre-training corpora (e.g., ROOTS), and model sizes (e.g., 176B parameters). Moreover, we find that while larger models are better at learning long-tail knowledge, we estimate that today's models must be scaled by many orders of magnitude to reach competitive QA performance on questions with little support in the pre-training data. Finally, we show that retrieval-augmentation can reduce the dependence on relevant document count, presenting a promising approach for capturing the long-tail.

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is computationally challenging in large-scale systems. The identified causal set consists of all potential regulators of the target variable under experimental settings, enabling efficient regulation when intervention costs and feasibility vary across variables. To achieve this, we train a neural network using supervised learning on simulated data to infer causality. By employing a local-inference strategy, our approach scales with linear complexity in the number of variables, efficiently scaling up to thousands of variables. Empirical results demonstrate superior performance in identifying causal relationships within large-scale gene regulatory networks, outperforming existing methods that emphasize full-graph discovery. We validate our model's generalization capability across out-of-distribution graph structures and generating mechanisms, including gene regulatory networks of E. coli and the human K562 cell line. Implementation codes are available at https://github.com/snu-mllab/Targeted-Cause-Discovery.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Synthesis procedures play a critical role in materials research, as they directly affect material properties. With data-driven approaches increasingly accelerating materials discovery, there is growing interest in extracting synthesis procedures from scientific literature as structured data. However, existing studies often rely on rigid, domain-specific schemas with predefined fields for structuring synthesis procedures or assume that synthesis procedures are linear sequences of operations, which limits their ability to capture the structural complexity of real-world procedures. To address these limitations, we adopt PROV-DM, an international standard for provenance information, which supports flexible, graph-based modeling of procedures. We present MatPROV, a dataset of PROV-DM-compliant synthesis procedures extracted from scientific literature using large language models. MatPROV captures structural complexities and causal relationships among materials, operations, and conditions through visually intuitive directed graphs. This representation enables machine-interpretable synthesis knowledge, opening opportunities for future research such as automated synthesis planning and optimization.

Social media platforms, despite their value in promoting open discourse, are often exploited to spread harmful content. Current deep learning and natural language processing models used for detecting this harmful content overly rely on domain-specific terms affecting their capabilities to adapt to generalizable hate speech detection. This is because they tend to focus too narrowly on particular linguistic signals or the use of certain categories of words. Another significant challenge arises when platforms lack high-quality annotated data for training, leading to a need for cross-platform models that can adapt to different distribution shifts. Our research introduces a cross-platform hate speech detection model capable of being trained on one platform's data and generalizing to multiple unseen platforms. To achieve good generalizability across platforms, one way is to disentangle the input representations into invariant and platform-dependent features. We also argue that learning causal relationships, which remain constant across diverse environments, can significantly aid in understanding invariant representations in hate speech. By disentangling input into platform-dependent features (useful for predicting hate targets) and platform-independent features (used to predict the presence of hate), we learn invariant representations resistant to distribution shifts. These features are then used to predict hate speech across unseen platforms. Our extensive experiments across four platforms highlight our model's enhanced efficacy compared to existing state-of-the-art methods in detecting generalized hate speech.

Most prior art in visual understanding relies solely on analyzing the "what" (e.g., event recognition) and "where" (e.g., event localization), which in some cases, fails to describe correct contextual relationships between events or leads to incorrect underlying visual attention. Part of what defines us as human and fundamentally different from machines is our instinct to seek causality behind any association, say an event Y that happened as a direct result of event X. To this end, we propose iPerceive, a framework capable of understanding the "why" between events in a video by building a common-sense knowledge base using contextual cues to infer causal relationships between objects in the video. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique using the dense video captioning (DVC) and video question answering (VideoQA) tasks. Furthermore, while most prior work in DVC and VideoQA relies solely on visual information, other modalities such as audio and speech are vital for a human observer's perception of an environment. We formulate DVC and VideoQA tasks as machine translation problems that utilize multiple modalities. By evaluating the performance of iPerceive DVC and iPerceive VideoQA on the ActivityNet Captions and TVQA datasets respectively, we show that our approach furthers the state-of-the-art. Code and samples are available at: iperceive.amanchadha.com.

Recent advances in CoT reasoning and RL post-training have been reported to enhance video reasoning capabilities of MLLMs. This progress naturally raises a question: can these models perform complex video reasoning in a manner comparable to human experts? However, existing video benchmarks primarily evaluate visual perception and grounding abilities, with questions that can be answered based on explicit prompts or isolated visual cues. Such benchmarks do not fully capture the intricacies of real-world reasoning, where humans must actively search for, integrate, and analyze multiple clues before reaching a conclusion. To address this issue, we present Video-Holmes, a benchmark inspired by the reasoning process of Sherlock Holmes, designed to evaluate the complex video reasoning capabilities of MLLMs. Video-Holmes consists of 1,837 questions derived from 270 manually annotated suspense short films, which spans seven carefully designed tasks. Each task is constructed by first identifying key events and causal relationships within films, and then designing questions that require models to actively locate and connect multiple relevant visual clues scattered across different video segments. Our comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art MLLMs reveals that, while these models generally excel at visual perception, they encounter substantial difficulties with integrating information and often miss critical clues. For example, the best-performing model, Gemini-2.5-Pro, achieves an accuracy of only 45%, with most models scoring below 40%. We aim that Video-Holmes can serve as a "Holmes-test" for multimodal reasoning, motivating models to reason more like humans and emphasizing the ongoing challenges in this field. The benchmark is released in https://github.com/TencentARC/Video-Holmes.

Building an agent that can mimic human behavior patterns to accomplish various open-world tasks is a long-term goal. To enable agents to effectively learn behavioral patterns across diverse tasks, a key challenge lies in modeling the intricate relationships among observations, actions, and language. To this end, we propose Optimus-2, a novel Minecraft agent that incorporates a Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) for high-level planning, alongside a Goal-Observation-Action Conditioned Policy (GOAP) for low-level control. GOAP contains (1) an Action-guided Behavior Encoder that models causal relationships between observations and actions at each timestep, then dynamically interacts with the historical observation-action sequence, consolidating it into fixed-length behavior tokens, and (2) an MLLM that aligns behavior tokens with open-ended language instructions to predict actions auto-regressively. Moreover, we introduce a high-quality Minecraft Goal-Observation-Action (MGOA)} dataset, which contains 25,000 videos across 8 atomic tasks, providing about 30M goal-observation-action pairs. The automated construction method, along with the MGOA dataset, can contribute to the community's efforts to train Minecraft agents. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Optimus-2 exhibits superior performance across atomic tasks, long-horizon tasks, and open-ended instruction tasks in Minecraft. Please see the project page at https://cybertronagent.github.io/Optimus-2.github.io/.

Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low and high-dimensional synthetic datasets, and real-world datasets such as METABRIC and GBSG. We demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other survival analysis baselines such as Cox Proportional Hazards, DeepSurv and Deephit, which are oblivious to the underlying causal relationship between data entities.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged as a central focus in both industry and academia, but often suffer from biases introduced by visual and language priors, which can lead to multimodal hallucination. These biases arise from the visual encoder and the Large Language Model (LLM) backbone, affecting the attention mechanism responsible for aligning multimodal inputs. Existing decoding-based mitigation methods focus on statistical correlations and overlook the causal relationships between attention mechanisms and model output, limiting their effectiveness in addressing these biases. To tackle this issue, we propose a causal inference framework termed CausalMM that applies structural causal modeling to MLLMs, treating modality priors as a confounder between attention mechanisms and output. Specifically, by employing backdoor adjustment and counterfactual reasoning at both the visual and language attention levels, our method mitigates the negative effects of modality priors and enhances the alignment of MLLM's inputs and outputs, with a maximum score improvement of 65.3% on 6 VLind-Bench indicators and 164 points on MME Benchmark compared to conventional methods. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach while being a plug-and-play solution. Our code is available at: https://github.com/The-Martyr/CausalMM

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

With the rise of Large Language Models(LLMs), it has become crucial to understand their capabilities and limitations in deciphering and explaining the complex web of causal relationships that language entails. Current methods use either explicit or implicit causal reasoning, yet there is a strong need for a unified approach combining both to tackle a wide array of causal relationships more effectively. This research proposes a novel architecture called Context Aware Reasoning Enhancement with Counterfactual Analysis(CARE CA) framework to enhance causal reasoning and explainability. The proposed framework incorporates an explicit causal detection module with ConceptNet and counterfactual statements, as well as implicit causal detection through LLMs. Our framework goes one step further with a layer of counterfactual explanations to accentuate LLMs understanding of causality. The knowledge from ConceptNet enhances the performance of multiple causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery, causal identification and counterfactual reasoning. The counterfactual sentences add explicit knowledge of the not caused by scenarios. By combining these powerful modules, our model aims to provide a deeper understanding of causal relationships, enabling enhanced interpretability. Evaluation of benchmark datasets shows improved performance across all metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 scores. We also introduce CausalNet, a new dataset accompanied by our code, to facilitate further research in this domain.

Video Question Answering (VideoQA) requires identifying sparse critical moments in long videos and reasoning about their causal relationships to answer semantically complex questions. While recent advances in multimodal learning have improved alignment and fusion, current approaches remain limited by two prevalent but fundamentally flawed strategies: (1) task-agnostic sampling indiscriminately processes all frames, overwhelming key events with irrelevant content; and (2) heuristic retrieval captures superficial patterns but misses causal-temporal structures needed for complex reasoning. To address these challenges, we introduce LeAdQA, an innovative approach that bridges these gaps through synergizing causal-aware query refinement with fine-grained visual grounding. Our method first leverages LLMs to reformulate question-option pairs, resolving causal ambiguities and sharpening temporal focus. These refined queries subsequently direct a temporal grounding model to precisely retrieve the most salient segments, complemented by an adaptive fusion mechanism dynamically integrating the evidence to maximize relevance. The integrated visual-textual cues are then processed by an MLLM to generate accurate, contextually-grounded answers. Experiments on NExT-QA, IntentQA, and NExT-GQA demonstrate that our method's precise visual grounding substantially enhances the understanding of video-question relationships, achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on complex reasoning tasks while maintaining computational efficiency.

Autoregressive models have achieved promising results in natural language processing. However, for image generation tasks, they encounter substantial challenges in effectively capturing long-range dependencies, managing computational costs, and most crucially, defining meaningful autoregressive sequences that reflect natural image hierarchies. To address these issues, we present Next-Frequency Image Generation (NFIG), a novel framework that decomposes the image generation process into multiple frequency-guided stages. Our approach first generates low-frequency components to establish global structure with fewer tokens, then progressively adds higher-frequency details, following the natural spectral hierarchy of images. This principled autoregressive sequence not only improves the quality of generated images by better capturing true causal relationships between image components, but also significantly reduces computational overhead during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFIG achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer steps, offering a more efficient solution for image generation, with 1.25times speedup compared to VAR-d20 while achieving better performance (FID: 2.81) on the ImageNet-256 benchmark. We hope that our insight of incorporating frequency-domain knowledge to guide autoregressive sequence design will shed light on future research. We will make our code publicly available upon acceptance of the paper.

In recent years, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have made significant advances in processing structured data. However, most of them primarily adopted a model-centric approach, which simplifies graphs by converting them into undirected formats and emphasizes model designs. This approach is inherently limited in real-world applications due to the unavoidable information loss in simple undirected graphs and the model optimization challenges that arise when exceeding the upper bounds of this sub-optimal data representational capacity. As a result, there has been a shift toward data-centric methods that prioritize improving graph quality and representation. Specifically, various types of graphs can be derived from naturally structured data, including heterogeneous graphs, hypergraphs, and directed graphs. Among these, directed graphs offer distinct advantages in topological systems by modeling causal relationships, and directed GNNs have been extensively studied in recent years. However, a comprehensive survey of this emerging topic is still lacking. Therefore, we aim to provide a comprehensive review of directed graph learning, with a particular focus on a data-centric perspective. Specifically, we first introduce a novel taxonomy for existing studies. Subsequently, we re-examine these methods from the data-centric perspective, with an emphasis on understanding and improving data representation. It demonstrates that a deep understanding of directed graphs and their quality plays a crucial role in model performance. Additionally, we explore the diverse applications of directed GNNs across 10+ domains, highlighting their broad applicability. Finally, we identify key opportunities and challenges within the field, offering insights that can guide future research and development in directed graph learning.

We introduce STAR, a text-to-image model that employs a scale-wise auto-regressive paradigm. Unlike VAR, which is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis for images up to 256times256, STAR enables text-driven image generation up to 1024times1024 through three key designs. First, we introduce a pre-trained text encoder to extract and adopt representations for textual constraints, enhancing details and generalizability. Second, given the inherent structural correlation across different scales, we leverage 2D Rotary Positional Encoding (RoPE) and tweak it into a normalized version, ensuring consistent interpretation of relative positions across token maps and stabilizing the training process. Third, we observe that simultaneously sampling all tokens within a single scale can disrupt inter-token relationships, leading to structural instability, particularly in high-resolution generation. To address this, we propose a novel stable sampling method that incorporates causal relationships into the sampling process, ensuring both rich details and stable structures. Compared to previous diffusion models and auto-regressive models, STAR surpasses existing benchmarks in fidelity, text-image consistency, and aesthetic quality, requiring just 2.21s for 1024times1024 images on A100. This highlights the potential of auto-regressive methods in high-quality image synthesis, offering new directions for the text-to-image generation.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks, yet they face significant challenges in embodied task planning scenarios that require continuous environmental understanding and action generation. Existing approaches generate open-loop action scripts based on static knowledge, making it difficult to learn causal relationships between actions and environmental feedback, particularly in partially observable environments. We introduce Embodied Planner-R1, a novel outcome-driven reinforcement learning framework that enables LLMs to develop interactive capabilities through autonomous exploration with minimal supervision. Our framework incorporates three key innovations: (1) Without human annotations, we employ pure reinforcement learning with group rollout, incorporating in-environment interaction through parallel exploration; (2) completion-driven sparse reward; and (3) Interactive Policy Optimization (IPO) for efficient learning from grouped trajectories. Across two challenging text-based Embodied planning benchmarks, Embodied Planner-R1 achieves impressive completion rates of 97.78% on ALFWorld and 79.92% on ScienceWorld, surpassing prior methods by a large margin, and suffers only a -3.66% drop in previously unseen environments, evidencing strong generalization.

Recently, the state space model Mamba has demonstrated efficient long-sequence modeling capabilities, particularly for addressing long-sequence visual tasks in 3D medical imaging. However, existing generative self-supervised learning methods have not yet fully unleashed Mamba's potential for handling long-range dependencies because they overlook the inherent causal properties of state space sequences in masked modeling. To address this challenge, we propose a general-purpose pre-training framework called MambaMIM, a masked image modeling method based on a novel TOKen-Interpolation strategy (TOKI) for the selective structure state space sequence, which learns causal relationships of state space within the masked sequence. Further, MambaMIM introduces a bottom-up 3D hybrid masking strategy to maintain a masking consistency across different architectures and can be used on any single or hybrid Mamba architecture to enhance its multi-scale and long-range representation capability. We pre-train MambaMIM on a large-scale dataset of 6.8K CT scans and evaluate its performance across eight public medical segmentation benchmarks. Extensive downstream experiments reveal the feasibility and advancement of using Mamba for medical image pre-training. In particular, when we apply the MambaMIM to a customized architecture that hybridizes MedNeXt and Vision Mamba, we consistently obtain the state-of-the-art segmentation performance. The code is available at: https://github.com/FengheTan9/MambaMIM.

When language models correctly parse "The cat that the dog chased meowed," are they analyzing syntax or simply familiar with dogs chasing cats? Despite extensive benchmarking, we lack methods to distinguish structural understanding from semantic pattern matching. We introduce CenterBench, a dataset of 9,720 comprehension questions on center-embedded sentences (like "The cat [that the dog chased] meowed") where relative clauses nest recursively, creating processing demands from simple to deeply nested structures. Each sentence has a syntactically identical but semantically implausible counterpart (e.g., mailmen prescribe medicine, doctors deliver mail) and six comprehension questions testing surface understanding, syntactic dependencies, and causal reasoning. Testing six models reveals that performance gaps between plausible and implausible sentences widen systematically with complexity, with models showing median gaps up to 26.8 percentage points, quantifying when they abandon structural analysis for semantic associations. Notably, semantic plausibility harms performance on questions about resulting actions, where following causal relationships matters more than semantic coherence. Reasoning models improve accuracy but their traces show semantic shortcuts, overthinking, and answer refusal. Unlike models whose plausibility advantage systematically widens with complexity, humans shows variable semantic effects. CenterBench provides the first framework to identify when models shift from structural analysis to pattern matching.

Visual transformation reasoning (VTR) is a vital cognitive capability that empowers intelligent agents to understand dynamic scenes, model causal relationships, and predict future states, and thereby guiding actions and laying the foundation for advanced intelligent systems. However, existing benchmarks suffer from a sim-to-real gap, limited task complexity, and incomplete reasoning coverage, limiting their practical use in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we introduce VisualTrans, the first comprehensive benchmark specifically designed for VTR in real-world human-object interaction scenarios. VisualTrans encompasses 12 semantically diverse manipulation tasks and systematically evaluates three essential reasoning dimensions - spatial, procedural, and quantitative - through 6 well-defined subtask types. The benchmark features 472 high-quality question-answer pairs in various formats, including multiple-choice, open-ended counting, and target enumeration. We introduce a scalable data construction pipeline built upon first-person manipulation videos, which integrates task selection, image pair extraction, automated metadata annotation with large multimodal models, and structured question generation. Human verification ensures the final benchmark is both high-quality and interpretable. Evaluations of various state-of-the-art vision-language models show strong performance in static spatial tasks. However, they reveal notable shortcomings in dynamic, multi-step reasoning scenarios, particularly in areas like intermediate state recognition and transformation sequence planning. These findings highlight fundamental weaknesses in temporal modeling and causal reasoning, providing clear directions for future research aimed at developing more capable and generalizable VTR systems. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/WangYipu2002/VisualTrans.

Fair machine learning seeks to identify and mitigate biases in predictions against unfavorable populations characterized by demographic attributes, such as race and gender. Recently, a few works have extended fairness to graph data, such as social networks, but most of them neglect the causal relationships among data instances. This paper addresses the prevalent challenge in fairness-aware ML algorithms, which typically assume Independent and Identically Distributed (IID) data. We tackle the overlooked domain of non-IID, graph-based settings where data instances are interconnected, influencing the outcomes of fairness interventions. We base our research on the Network Structural Causal Model (NSCM) framework and posit two main assumptions: Decomposability and Graph Independence, which enable the computation of interventional distributions in non-IID settings using the do-calculus. Based on that, we develop the Message Passing Variational Autoencoder for Causal Inference (MPVA) to compute interventional distributions and facilitate causally fair node classification through estimated interventional distributions. Empirical evaluations on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MPVA outperforms conventional methods by effectively approximating interventional distributions and mitigating bias. The implications of our findings underscore the potential of causality-based fairness in complex ML applications, setting the stage for further research into relaxing the initial assumptions to enhance model fairness.

Existing end-to-end autonomous driving (AD) algorithms typically follow the Imitation Learning (IL) paradigm, which faces challenges such as causal confusion and the open-loop gap. In this work, we establish a 3DGS-based closed-loop Reinforcement Learning (RL) training paradigm. By leveraging 3DGS techniques, we construct a photorealistic digital replica of the real physical world, enabling the AD policy to extensively explore the state space and learn to handle out-of-distribution scenarios through large-scale trial and error. To enhance safety, we design specialized rewards that guide the policy to effectively respond to safety-critical events and understand real-world causal relationships. For better alignment with human driving behavior, IL is incorporated into RL training as a regularization term. We introduce a closed-loop evaluation benchmark consisting of diverse, previously unseen 3DGS environments. Compared to IL-based methods, RAD achieves stronger performance in most closed-loop metrics, especially 3x lower collision rate. Abundant closed-loop results are presented at https://hgao-cv.github.io/RAD.

By compressing diverse narratives, LLMs go beyond memorization, achieving intelligence by capturing generalizable causal relationships. However, they suffer from local 'representation gaps' due to insufficient training data diversity, limiting their real-world utility, especially in tasks requiring strict alignment to rules. Traditional alignment methods relying on heavy human annotations are inefficient and unscalable. Recent self-alignment techniques also fall short, as they often depend on self-selection based prompting and memorization-based learning. To address these issues, we introduce Iterative Graph Alignment (IGA), an annotation-free rule-based alignment algorithm. A teacher model (VLM) employs Iterative Graph Prompting (IGP) to create logical graphs and reference answers. The student model (LLM) identifies local knowledge gaps by attempting to align its responses with these references, collaborating with helper models to generate diverse answers. These aligned responses are then used for iterative supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Our evaluations across five rule-based scenarios demonstrate IGP's effectiveness, with a 73.12\% alignment improvement in Claude Sonnet 3.5, and Llama3-8B-Instruct achieving an 86.20\% improvement, outperforming Claude Sonnet 3.5 in rule-based alignment.

Understanding causal event relationships and achieving fine-grained temporal grounding in videos remain challenging for vision-language models. Existing methods either compress video tokens to reduce temporal resolution, or treat videos as unsegmented streams, which obscures fine-grained event boundaries and limits the modeling of causal dependencies. We propose TEMPURA (Temporal Event Masked Prediction and Understanding for Reasoning in Action), a two-stage training framework that enhances video temporal understanding. TEMPURA first applies masked event prediction reasoning to reconstruct missing events and generate step-by-step causal explanations from dense event annotations, drawing inspiration from effective infilling techniques. TEMPURA then learns to perform video segmentation and dense captioning to decompose videos into non-overlapping events with detailed, timestamp-aligned descriptions. We train TEMPURA on VER, a large-scale dataset curated by us that comprises 1M training instances and 500K videos with temporally aligned event descriptions and structured reasoning steps. Experiments on temporal grounding and highlight detection benchmarks demonstrate that TEMPURA outperforms strong baseline models, confirming that integrating causal reasoning with fine-grained temporal segmentation leads to improved video understanding.

Segments in computer vision are often defined by semantic considerations and are highly dependent on category-specific conventions. In contrast, developmental psychology suggests that humans perceive the world in terms of Spelke objects--groupings of physical things that reliably move together when acted on by physical forces. Spelke objects thus operate on category-agnostic causal motion relationships which potentially better support tasks like manipulation and planning. In this paper, we first benchmark the Spelke object concept, introducing the SpelkeBench dataset that contains a wide variety of well-defined Spelke segments in natural images. Next, to extract Spelke segments from images algorithmically, we build SpelkeNet, a class of visual world models trained to predict distributions over future motions. SpelkeNet supports estimation of two key concepts for Spelke object discovery: (1) the motion affordance map, identifying regions likely to move under a poke, and (2) the expected-displacement map, capturing how the rest of the scene will move. These concepts are used for "statistical counterfactual probing", where diverse "virtual pokes" are applied on regions of high motion-affordance, and the resultant expected displacement maps are used define Spelke segments as statistical aggregates of correlated motion statistics. We find that SpelkeNet outperforms supervised baselines like SegmentAnything (SAM) on SpelkeBench. Finally, we show that the Spelke concept is practically useful for downstream applications, yielding superior performance on the 3DEditBench benchmark for physical object manipulation when used in a variety of off-the-shelf object manipulation models.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships. Since they are only partially known they pose a challenge to effective process control. In this work we present how Structural Equation Models can be used for deriving cause-and-effect relationships from the combination of prior knowledge and process data in the manufacturing domain. Compared to existing applications, we do not assume linear relationships leading to more informative results.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

While interpretability research has shed light on some internal algorithms utilized by transformer-based LLMs, reasoning in natural language, with its deep contextuality and ambiguity, defies easy categorization. As a result, formulating clear and motivating questions for circuit analysis that rely on well-defined in-domain and out-of-domain examples required for causal interventions is challenging. Although significant work has investigated circuits for specific tasks, such as indirect object identification (IOI), deciphering natural language reasoning through circuits remains difficult due to its inherent complexity. In this work, we take initial steps to characterize causal reasoning in LLMs by analyzing clear-cut cause-and-effect sentences like "I opened an umbrella because it started raining," where causal interventions may be possible through carefully crafted scenarios using GPT-2 small. Our findings indicate that causal syntax is localized within the first 2-3 layers, while certain heads in later layers exhibit heightened sensitivity to nonsensical variations of causal sentences. This suggests that models may infer reasoning by (1) detecting syntactic cues and (2) isolating distinct heads in the final layers that focus on semantic relationships.

Deep neural networks have significantly improved the performance of low-level vision tasks but also increased the difficulty of interpretability. A deep understanding of deep models is beneficial for both network design and practical reliability. To take up this challenge, we introduce causality theory to interpret low-level vision models and propose a model-/task-agnostic method called Causal Effect Map (CEM). With CEM, we can visualize and quantify the input-output relationships on either positive or negative effects. After analyzing various low-level vision tasks with CEM, we have reached several interesting insights, such as: (1) Using more information of input images (e.g., larger receptive field) does NOT always yield positive outcomes. (2) Attempting to incorporate mechanisms with a global receptive field (e.g., channel attention) into image denoising may prove futile. (3) Integrating multiple tasks to train a general model could encourage the network to prioritize local information over global context. Based on the causal effect theory, the proposed diagnostic tool can refresh our common knowledge and bring a deeper understanding of low-level vision models. Codes are available at https://github.com/J-FHu/CEM.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

The increasing rate of road accidents worldwide results not only in significant loss of life but also imposes billions financial burdens on societies. Current research in traffic crash frequency modeling and analysis has predominantly approached the problem as classification tasks, focusing mainly on learning-based classification or ensemble learning methods. These approaches often overlook the intricate relationships among the complex infrastructure, environmental, human and contextual factors related to traffic crashes and risky situations. In contrast, we initially propose a large-scale traffic crash language dataset, named CrashEvent, summarizing 19,340 real-world crash reports and incorporating infrastructure data, environmental and traffic textual and visual information in Washington State. Leveraging this rich dataset, we further formulate the crash event feature learning as a novel text reasoning problem and further fine-tune various large language models (LLMs) to predict detailed accident outcomes, such as crash types, severity and number of injuries, based on contextual and environmental factors. The proposed model, CrashLLM, distinguishes itself from existing solutions by leveraging the inherent text reasoning capabilities of LLMs to parse and learn from complex, unstructured data, thereby enabling a more nuanced analysis of contributing factors. Our experiments results shows that our LLM-based approach not only predicts the severity of accidents but also classifies different types of accidents and predicts injury outcomes, all with averaged F1 score boosted from 34.9% to 53.8%. Furthermore, CrashLLM can provide valuable insights for numerous open-world what-if situational-awareness traffic safety analyses with learned reasoning features, which existing models cannot offer. We make our benchmark, datasets, and model public available for further exploration.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable performances on a wide range of natural language understanding and generation tasks. We observe that the LLMs provide effective priors in exploiting linguistic shortcuts for temporal and causal reasoning in Video Question Answering (VideoQA). However, such priors often cause suboptimal results on VideoQA by leading the model to over-rely on questions, i.e., linguistic bias, while ignoring visual content. This is also known as `ungrounded guesses' or `hallucinations'. To address this problem while leveraging LLMs' prior on VideoQA, we propose a novel framework, Flipped-VQA, encouraging the model to predict all the combinations of langleV, Q, Arangle triplet by flipping the source pair and the target label to understand their complex relationships, i.e., predict A, Q, and V given a VQ, VA, and QA pairs, respectively. In this paper, we develop LLaMA-VQA by applying Flipped-VQA to LLaMA, and it outperforms both LLMs-based and non-LLMs-based models on five challenging VideoQA benchmarks. Furthermore, our Flipped-VQA is a general framework that is applicable to various LLMs (OPT and GPT-J) and consistently improves their performances. We empirically demonstrate that Flipped-VQA not only enhances the exploitation of linguistic shortcuts but also mitigates the linguistic bias, which causes incorrect answers over-relying on the question. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/Flipped-VQA.

Recent advances in causal interpretability have extended from language models to vision-language models (VLMs), seeking to reveal their internal mechanisms through input interventions. While textual interventions often target semantics, visual interventions typically rely on coarse pixel-level perturbations, limiting semantic insights on multimodal integration. In this study, we introduce V-SEAM, a novel framework that combines Visual Semantic Editing and Attention Modulating for causal interpretation of VLMs. V-SEAM enables concept-level visual manipulations and identifies attention heads with positive or negative contributions to predictions across three semantic levels: objects, attributes, and relationships. We observe that positive heads are often shared within the same semantic level but vary across levels, while negative heads tend to generalize broadly. Finally, we introduce an automatic method to modulate key head embeddings, demonstrating enhanced performance for both LLaVA and InstructBLIP across three diverse VQA benchmarks. Our data and code are released at: https://github.com/petergit1/V-SEAM.

This position paper argues for, and offers, a critical lens through which to examine the current AI frenzy in the landscape architecture profession. In it, the authors propose five archetypes or mental modes that landscape architects might inhabit when thinking about AI. Rather than limiting judgments of AI use to a single axis of acceleration, these archetypes and corresponding narratives exist along a relational spectrum and are permeable, allowing LAs to take on and switch between them according to context. We model these relationships between the archetypes and their contributions to AI advancement using a causal loop diagram (CLD), and with those interactions argue that more nuanced ways of approaching AI might also open new modes of practice in the new digital economy.

Large multimodal models exhibit remarkable intelligence, yet their embodied cognitive abilities during motion in open-ended urban 3D space remain to be explored. We introduce a benchmark to evaluate whether video-large language models (Video-LLMs) can naturally process continuous first-person visual observations like humans, enabling recall, perception, reasoning, and navigation. We have manually control drones to collect 3D embodied motion video data from real-world cities and simulated environments, resulting in 1.5k video clips. Then we design a pipeline to generate 5.2k multiple-choice questions. Evaluations of 17 widely-used Video-LLMs reveal current limitations in urban embodied cognition. Correlation analysis provides insight into the relationships between different tasks, showing that causal reasoning has a strong correlation with recall, perception, and navigation, while the abilities for counterfactual and associative reasoning exhibit lower correlation with other tasks. We also validate the potential for Sim-to-Real transfer in urban embodiment through fine-tuning.

Understanding continuous video streams plays a fundamental role in real-time applications including embodied AI and autonomous driving. Unlike offline video understanding, streaming video understanding requires the ability to process video streams frame by frame, preserve historical information, and make low-latency decisions. To address these challenges, our main contributions are three-fold. (i) We develop a novel streaming video backbone, termed as StreamFormer, by incorporating causal temporal attention into a pre-trained vision transformer. This enables efficient streaming video processing while maintaining image representation capability. (ii) To train StreamFormer, we propose to unify diverse spatial-temporal video understanding tasks within a multitask visual-language alignment framework. Hence, StreamFormer learns global semantics, temporal dynamics, and fine-grained spatial relationships simultaneously. (iii) We conduct extensive experiments on online action detection, online video instance segmentation, and video question answering. StreamFormer achieves competitive results while maintaining efficiency, demonstrating its potential for real-time applications.

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in few-shot classification (FSC) occur when novel classes sampled from testing distributions differ from base classes drawn from training distributions, which considerably degrades the performance of deep learning models deployed in real-world applications. Recent studies suggest that the OOD problems in FSC mainly including: (a) cross-domain few-shot classification (CD-FSC) and (b) spurious-correlation few-shot classification (SC-FSC). Specifically, CD-FSC occurs when a classifier learns transferring knowledge from base classes drawn from seen training distributions but recognizes novel classes sampled from unseen testing distributions. In contrast, SC-FSC arises when a classifier relies on non-causal features (or contexts) that happen to be correlated with the labels (or concepts) in base classes but such relationships no longer hold during the model deployment. Despite CD-FSC has been extensively studied, SC-FSC remains understudied due to lack of the corresponding evaluation benchmarks. To this end, we present Meta Concept Context (MetaCoCo), a benchmark with spurious-correlation shifts collected from real-world scenarios. Moreover, to quantify the extent of spurious-correlation shifts of the presented MetaCoCo, we further propose a metric by using CLIP as a pre-trained vision-language model. Extensive experiments on the proposed benchmark are performed to evaluate the state-of-the-art methods in FSC, cross-domain shifts, and self-supervised learning. The experimental results show that the performance of the existing methods degrades significantly in the presence of spurious-correlation shifts. We open-source all codes of our benchmark and hope that the proposed MetaCoCo can facilitate future research on spurious-correlation shifts problems in FSC. The code is available at: https://github.com/remiMZ/MetaCoCo-ICLR24.

Current generative models, such as autoregressive and diffusion approaches, decompose high-dimensional data distribution learning into a series of simpler subtasks. However, inherent conflicts arise during the joint optimization of these subtasks, and existing solutions fail to resolve such conflicts without sacrificing efficiency or scalability. We propose a novel equivariant image modeling framework that inherently aligns optimization targets across subtasks by leveraging the translation invariance of natural visual signals. Our method introduces (1) column-wise tokenization which enhances translational symmetry along the horizontal axis, and (2) windowed causal attention which enforces consistent contextual relationships across positions. Evaluated on class-conditioned ImageNet generation at 256x256 resolution, our approach achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art AR models while using fewer computational resources. Systematic analysis demonstrates that enhanced equivariance reduces inter-task conflicts, significantly improving zero-shot generalization and enabling ultra-long image synthesis. This work establishes the first framework for task-aligned decomposition in generative modeling, offering insights into efficient parameter sharing and conflict-free optimization. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/drx-code/EquivariantModeling.

Despite the notable advancements of existing prompting methods, such as In-Context Learning and Chain-of-Thought for Large Language Models (LLMs), they still face challenges related to various biases. Traditional debiasing methods primarily focus on the model training stage, including approaches based on data augmentation and reweighting, yet they struggle with the complex biases inherent in LLMs. To address such limitations, the causal relationship behind the prompting methods is uncovered using a structural causal model, and a novel causal prompting method based on front-door adjustment is proposed to effectively mitigate LLMs biases. In specific, causal intervention is achieved by designing the prompts without accessing the parameters and logits of LLMs. The chain-of-thought generated by LLM is employed as the mediator variable and the causal effect between input prompts and output answers is calculated through front-door adjustment to mitigate model biases. Moreover, to accurately represent the chain-of-thoughts and estimate the causal effects, contrastive learning is used to fine-tune the encoder of chain-of-thought by aligning its space with that of the LLM. Experimental results show that the proposed causal prompting approach achieves excellent performance across seven natural language processing datasets on both open-source and closed-source LLMs.

Towards intelligent image editing, object removal should eliminate both the target object and its causal visual artifacts, such as shadows and reflections. However, existing image appearance-based methods either follow strictly mask-aligned training and fail to remove these causal effects which are not explicitly masked, or adopt loosely mask-aligned strategies that lack controllability and may unintentionally over-erase other objects. We identify that these limitations stem from ignoring the causal relationship between an object's geometry presence and its visual effects. To address this limitation, we propose a geometry-aware two-stage framework that decouples object removal into (1) geometry removal and (2) appearance rendering. In the first stage, we remove the object directly from the geometry (e.g., depth) using strictly mask-aligned supervision, enabling structure-aware editing with strong geometric constraints. In the second stage, we render a photorealistic RGB image conditioned on the updated geometry, where causal visual effects are considered implicitly as a result of the modified 3D geometry. To guide learning in the geometry removal stage, we introduce a preference-driven objective based on positive and negative sample pairs, encouraging the model to remove objects as well as their causal visual artifacts while avoiding new structural insertions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in removing both objects and their associated artifacts on two popular benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/buxiangzhiren/GeoRemover.

Recent studies have revealed that self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems frequently lead to widespread outages, which are challenging to contain and recover from. Existing failure detection techniques struggle to expose such failures prior to deployment, as they typically require a complex combination of specific conditions to be triggered. This challenge stems from the inherent nature of cascading failures, as they typically involve a sequence of fault propagations, each activated by distinct conditions. This paper presents CSnake, a fault injection framework to expose self-sustaining cascading failures in distributed systems. CSnake uses the novel idea of causal stitching, which causally links multiple single-fault injections in different tests to simulate complex fault propagation chains. To identify these chains, CSnake designs a counterfactual causality analysis of fault propagations - fault causality analysis (FCA): FCA compares the execution trace of a fault injection run with its corresponding profile run (i.e., same test w/o the injection) and identifies any additional faults triggered, which are considered to have a causal relationship with the injected fault. To address the large search space of fault and workload combinations, CSnake employs a three-phase allocation protocol of test budget that prioritizes faults with unique and diverse causal consequences, increasing the likelihood of uncovering conditional fault propagations. Furthermore, to avoid incorrectly connecting fault propagations from workloads with incompatible conditions, CSnake performs a local compatibility check that approximately checks the compatibility of the path constraints associated with connected fault propagations with low overhead. CSnake detected 15 bugs that cause self-sustaining cascading failures in five systems, five of which have been confirmed with two fixed.

We consider the problem of predicting gene expressions from DNA sequences. A key challenge of this task is to find the regulatory elements that control gene expressions. Here, we introduce Seq2Exp, a Sequence to Expression network explicitly designed to discover and extract regulatory elements that drive target gene expression, enhancing the accuracy of the gene expression prediction. Our approach captures the causal relationship between epigenomic signals, DNA sequences and their associated regulatory elements. Specifically, we propose to decompose the epigenomic signals and the DNA sequence conditioned on the causal active regulatory elements, and apply an information bottleneck with the Beta distribution to combine their effects while filtering out non-causal components. Our experiments demonstrate that Seq2Exp outperforms existing baselines in gene expression prediction tasks and discovers influential regions compared to commonly used statistical methods for peak detection such as MACS3. The source code is released as part of the AIRS library (https://github.com/divelab/AIRS/).

The task of abductive natural language inference (nli), to decide which hypothesis is the more likely explanation for a set of observations, is a particularly difficult type of NLI. Instead of just determining a causal relationship, it requires common sense to also evaluate how reasonable an explanation is. All recent competitive systems build on top of contextualized representations and make use of transformer architectures for learning an NLI model. When somebody is faced with a particular NLI task, they need to select the best model that is available. This is a time-consuming and resource-intense endeavour. To solve this practical problem, we propose a simple method for predicting the performance without actually fine-tuning the model. We do this by testing how well the pre-trained models perform on the nli task when just comparing sentence embeddings with cosine similarity to what the performance that is achieved when training a classifier on top of these embeddings. We show that the accuracy of the cosine similarity approach correlates strongly with the accuracy of the classification approach with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.65. Since the similarity computation is orders of magnitude faster to compute on a given dataset (less than a minute vs. hours), our method can lead to significant time savings in the process of model selection.

The ability to learn from context with novel concepts, and deliver appropriate responses are essential in human conversations. Despite current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) being trained on mega-scale datasets, recognizing unseen images or understanding novel concepts in a training-free manner remains a challenge. In-Context Learning (ICL) explores training-free few-shot learning, where models are encouraged to ``learn to learn" from limited tasks and generalize to unseen tasks. In this work, we propose link-context learning (LCL), which emphasizes "reasoning from cause and effect" to augment the learning capabilities of MLLMs. LCL goes beyond traditional ICL by explicitly strengthening the causal relationship between the support set and the query set. By providing demonstrations with causal links, LCL guides the model to discern not only the analogy but also the underlying causal associations between data points, which empowers MLLMs to recognize unseen images and understand novel concepts more effectively. To facilitate the evaluation of this novel approach, we introduce the ISEKAI dataset, comprising exclusively of unseen generated image-label pairs designed for link-context learning. Extensive experiments show that our LCL-MLLM exhibits strong link-context learning capabilities to novel concepts over vanilla MLLMs. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/isekai-portal/Link-Context-Learning.

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

The varying significance of distinct primitive behaviors during the policy learning process has been overlooked by prior model-free RL algorithms. Leveraging this insight, we explore the causal relationship between different action dimensions and rewards to evaluate the significance of various primitive behaviors during training. We introduce a causality-aware entropy term that effectively identifies and prioritizes actions with high potential impacts for efficient exploration. Furthermore, to prevent excessive focus on specific primitive behaviors, we analyze the gradient dormancy phenomenon and introduce a dormancy-guided reset mechanism to further enhance the efficacy of our method. Our proposed algorithm, ACE: Off-policy Actor-critic with Causality-aware Entropy regularization, demonstrates a substantial performance advantage across 29 diverse continuous control tasks spanning 7 domains compared to model-free RL baselines, which underscores the effectiveness, versatility, and efficient sample efficiency of our approach. Benchmark results and videos are available at https://ace-rl.github.io/.

In this paper, we propose a novel learning paradigm, termed Chain-of-Model (CoM), which incorporates the causal relationship into the hidden states of each layer as a chain style, thereby introducing great scaling efficiency in model training and inference flexibility in deployment. We introduce the concept of Chain-of-Representation (CoR), which formulates the hidden states at each layer as a combination of multiple sub-representations (i.e., chains) at the hidden dimension level. In each layer, each chain from the output representations can only view all of its preceding chains in the input representations. Consequently, the model built upon CoM framework can progressively scale up the model size by increasing the chains based on the previous models (i.e., chains), and offer multiple sub-models at varying sizes for elastic inference by using different chain numbers. Based on this principle, we devise Chain-of-Language-Model (CoLM), which incorporates the idea of CoM into each layer of Transformer architecture. Based on CoLM, we further introduce CoLM-Air by introducing a KV sharing mechanism, that computes all keys and values within the first chain and then shares across all chains. This design demonstrates additional extensibility, such as enabling seamless LM switching, prefilling acceleration and so on. Experimental results demonstrate our CoLM family can achieve comparable performance to the standard Transformer, while simultaneously enabling greater flexiblity, such as progressive scaling to improve training efficiency and offer multiple varying model sizes for elastic inference, paving a a new way toward building language models. Our code will be released in the future at: https://github.com/microsoft/CoLM.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

Recently, several multi-modal models have been developed for joint image and language understanding, which have demonstrated impressive chat abilities by utilizing advanced large language models (LLMs). The process of developing such models is straightforward yet effective. It involves pre-training an adaptation module to align the semantics of the vision encoder and language model, followed by fine-tuning on the instruction-following data. However, despite the success of this pipeline in image and language understanding, its effectiveness in joint video and language understanding has not been widely explored. In this paper, we aim to develop a novel multi-modal foundation model capable of perceiving video, image, and language within a general framework. To achieve this goal, we introduce Valley: Video Assistant with Large Language model Enhanced ability. Specifically, our proposed Valley model is designed with a simple projection module that bridges video, image, and language modalities, and is further unified with a multi-lingual LLM. We also collect multi-source vision-text pairs and adopt a spatio-temporal pooling strategy to obtain a unified vision encoding of video and image input for pre-training. Furthermore, we generate multi-task instruction-following video data, including multi-shot captions, long video descriptions, action recognition, causal relationship inference, etc. To obtain the instruction-following data, we design diverse rounds of task-oriented conversations between humans and videos, facilitated by ChatGPT. Qualitative examples demonstrate that our proposed model has the potential to function as a highly effective multilingual video assistant that can make complex video understanding scenarios easy. Code, data, and models will be available at https://github.com/RupertLuo/Valley.

Recent large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable generalization abilities in mathematics and logical reasoning tasks. Prior research indicates that LLMs pre-trained with programming language data exhibit high mathematical and reasoning abilities; however, this causal relationship has not been rigorously tested. Our research aims to verify which programming languages and features during pre-training affect logical inference performance. Specifically, we pre-trained decoder-based language models from scratch using datasets from ten programming languages (e.g., Python, C, Java) and three natural language datasets (Wikipedia, Fineweb, C4) under identical conditions. Thereafter, we evaluated the trained models in a few-shot in-context learning setting on logical reasoning tasks: FLD and bAbi, which do not require commonsense or world knowledge. The results demonstrate that nearly all models trained with programming languages consistently outperform those trained with natural languages, indicating that programming languages contain factors that elicit logic inference performance. In addition, we found that models trained with programming languages exhibit a better ability to follow instructions compared to those trained with natural languages. Further analysis reveals that the depth of Abstract Syntax Trees representing parsed results of programs also affects logical reasoning performance. These findings will offer insights into the essential elements of pre-training for acquiring the foundational abilities of LLMs.

Despite the remarkable progress of deep neural networks (DNNs) in various visual tasks, their vulnerability to adversarial examples raises significant security concerns. Recent adversarial training methods leverage inverse adversarial attacks to generate high-confidence examples, aiming to align adversarial distributions with high-confidence class regions. However, our investigation reveals that under inverse adversarial attacks, high-confidence outputs are influenced by biased feature activations, causing models to rely on background features that lack a causal relationship with the labels. This spurious correlation bias leads to overfitting irrelevant background features during adversarial training, thereby degrading the model's robust performance and generalization capabilities. To address this issue, we propose Debiased High-Confidence Adversarial Training (DHAT), a novel approach that aligns adversarial logits with debiased high-confidence logits and restores proper attention by enhancing foreground logit orthogonality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DHAT achieves state-of-the-art robustness on both CIFAR and ImageNet-1K benchmarks, while significantly improving generalization by mitigating the feature bias inherent in inverse adversarial training approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/KejiaZhang-Robust/DHAT.