### A Pluto.jl notebook ###
# v0.19.8

using Markdown
using InteractiveUtils

# This Pluto notebook uses @bind for interactivity. When running this notebook outside of Pluto, the following 'mock version' of @bind gives bound variables a default value (instead of an error).
macro bind(def, element)
    quote
        local iv = try Base.loaded_modules[Base.PkgId(Base.UUID("6e696c72-6542-2067-7265-42206c756150"), "AbstractPlutoDingetjes")].Bonds.initial_value catch; b -> missing; end
        local el = $(esc(element))
        global $(esc(def)) = Core.applicable(Base.get, el) ? Base.get(el) : iv(el)
        el
    end
end

# ╔═╡ 9a8e1c63-f27c-441b-8eb6-aca30f4ca2d8
# ╠═╡ show_logs = false
begin
	using Logging
	global_logger(NullLogger())
	display("")
end

# ╔═╡ f0545c67-5cfd-438f-a9ef-92c35ebaefa4
# ╠═╡ show_logs = false
#Set-up packages
begin
	
	using DataFrames, HTTP, CSV, Dates, Plots, PlutoUI, Printf, LaTeXStrings, HypertextLiteral, ShortCodes, XLSX
	
	gr();
	Plots.GRBackend()


	#Define html elements
	nbsp = html"&nbsp" #non-breaking space
	vspace = html"""<div style="margin-bottom:0.05cm;"></div>"""
	br = html"<br>"

	#Sets the width of cells, caps the cell width by 90% of screen width
	#(setting overwritten by cell below)
	# @bind screenWidth @htl("""
	# 	<div>
	# 	<script>
	# 		var div = currentScript.parentElement
	# 		div.value = screen.width
	# 	</script>
	# 	</div>
	# """)

	
	# cellWidth= min(1000, screenWidth*0.9)
	# @htl("""
	# 	<style>
	# 		pluto-notebook {
	# 			margin: auto;
	# 			width: $(cellWidth)px;
	# 		}
	# 	</style>
	# """)
	

	#Sets the width of the cells
	#begin
	#	html"""<style>
	#	main {
	#		max-width: 900px;
	#	}
	#	"""
	#end


	#Sets the height of displayed tables
	html"""<style>
		pluto-output.scroll_y {
			max-height: 550px; /* changed this from 400 to 550 */
		}
		"""
	

	#Two-column cell
	struct TwoColumn{A, B}
		left::A
		right::B
	end
	
	function Base.show(io, mime::MIME"text/html", tc::TwoColumn)
		write(io,
			"""
			<div style="display: flex;">
				<div style="flex: 50%;">
			""")
		show(io, mime, tc.left)
		write(io,
			"""
				</div>
				<div style="flex: 50%;">
			""")
		show(io, mime, tc.right)
		write(io,
			"""
				</div>
			</div>
		""")
	end

	#Creates a foldable cell
	struct Foldable{C}
		title::String
		content::C
	end
	
	function Base.show(io, mime::MIME"text/html", fld::Foldable)
		write(io,"<details><summary>$(fld.title)</summary><p>")
		show(io, mime, fld.content)
		write(io,"</p></details>")
	end
	
	
	#helper functions
	#round to digits, e.g. 6 digits then prec=1e-6
	roundmult(val, prec) = (inv_prec = 1 / prec; round(val * inv_prec) / inv_prec); 

	display("")
end

# ╔═╡ 41d7b190-2a14-11ec-2469-7977eac40f12
#add button to trigger presentation mode
html"<button onclick='present()'>present</button>"

# ╔═╡ 41f2df7c-9740-4de2-8a35-f435fed5e57a
begin 
	html"""
	<p align=left style="font-size:25px; font-family:family:Georgia"> <b> UD/ISCTE-IUL Trading and Bloomberg Program</b> <p>
	"""
end

# ╔═╡ a5de5746-3df0-45b4-a62c-3daf36f015a5
begin 
	html"""
	<p style="padding-bottom:1cm"> </p>
	<div align=center style="font-size:25px; font-family:family:Georgia">Fixed Income Securities </div>
	<p style="padding-bottom:1cm"> </p>
	<p align=center style="font-size:25px; font-family:family:Georgia"> <b> The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle</b> <p>
	<p align=center style="font-size:25px; font-family:family:Georgia"> <b> Introduction </b> <p>
	<p style="padding-bottom:0.5cm"> </p>
	<p align=center style="font-size:25px; font-family:family:Georgia"> Summer 2022 <p>
	<p style="padding-bottom:0.5cm"> </p>
	<div align=center style="font-size:20px; font-family:family:Georgia"> Prof. Matt Fleckenstein </div>
	<p style="padding-bottom:0.00cm"> </p>
	<div align=center style="font-size:20px; font-family:family:Georgia"> University of Delaware, 
	Lerner College of Business and Economics </div>
	<p style="padding-bottom:1cm"> </p>
	"""
end

# ╔═╡ d2908a7c-51af-431c-ac09-4a7d89dbf02f
TableOfContents(aside=true, depth=1)

# ╔═╡ 886da2d4-c1ec-4bb4-8733-e3b46c95dd36
md"""
# The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle
"""

# ╔═╡ 37aa21fb-f73a-4f28-829d-d1a4edbd1de7
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 19119cba-d324-4568-8060-167aae0e9a32
md"""
# The Largest Arbitrage Ever Documented

> - _“... you can forget about the concept of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller because ... this **arbitrage** can run to as much **$20 per $100 notional amount**.”_\
> - _“The trade was Barnegat’s most profitable and saw the fund make an impressive **132 per cent return that year**, outpacing almost every other fund in the industry.”_

Sources: [The largest arbitrage ever documented](https://www.ft.com/content/3ec205b7-4351-3c0b-a46c-e23ab86c3a44); [Hedge funds reap rewards from Treasuries](https://www.ft.com/content/a5aa3c38-c111-11df-afe0-00144feab49a)
"""

# ╔═╡ a9bb4760-275e-46ed-9b78-c00525cc7dab
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ b264dbf1-d759-4502-8e57-1d3d56725024
md"""
> - _**“For Barnegat the opportunity was clear: the fund bought TIPS bonds and went short on regular Treasury bonds of a matched maturity, hedging out the effect of inflation along the way with a swap contract.”**_ \
> - _“The result was a trade that would make money if the divergent prices between the two securities converged. The difference in price between the two securities narrowed sharply through 2009.”_\
> - _“ 'If 2009 was an excellent year, then 2010 is still a very good year. The opportunities are huge in some cases,' says Mr Treue. Indeed, Barnegat is up 15.75 per cent so far this year.”_

Source: [Hedge funds reap rewards from Treasuries](https://www.ft.com/content/a5aa3c38-c111-11df-afe0-00144feab49a)
"""

# ╔═╡ 4299cb5a-e16f-44aa-affe-cff510682284
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 84a4314f-b871-4f09-bec5-b140196e4134
md"""
[Presentation by Bob Treue, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Barnegat Fund Management](https://youtu.be/V-ssGaTnl8o)
"""

# ╔═╡ 23eb879e-23ca-4b46-8bfa-670ce12ad7f1
YouTube("V-ssGaTnl8o")

# ╔═╡ d6477225-6ca6-4444-83ad-be1a5d95abc0
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 16d6c5ce-860e-4e49-ab68-b22d6725ee37
md"""
# The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle in the Journal of Finance
"""

# ╔═╡ 6bcc4fb6-531c-44f9-8cd4-cea8b0eba4ae
md"""
> _"It’s contained in a great little paper published earlier this month and it isn’t a fancy, schmancy accessible to high frequency traders only type of trade."_

Source: [Kaminska (2010), FT.com](https://www.ft.com/content/3ec205b7-4351-3c0b-a46c-e23ab86c3a44)
"""

# ╔═╡ 009336cf-7b9e-458f-bf1f-504334555e58
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ b34099d1-2deb-4ca8-9205-5fbc6b950d3a
# ╠═╡ show_logs = false
LocalResource("./Assets/FleckensteinLongstaffLustig2014_Abstract.svg",:width => 900)

# ╔═╡ 8f4a669a-b3c5-4c41-a6fa-0ffd813301c2
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 1c90bd2e-67e2-4bb5-aceb-a39228f22872
md"""
# International Inflation-Linked Bond Puzzle
> - _Italian bond markets, for example, exhibited unprecedented price discrepancies between different classes of bond issued by the government as a result of the ECB’s LTRO liquidity injection._\
> - _In January, investors dumped inflation-protected Italian bonds, fearful that they would automatically drop out of key European bond indices if the country’s credit rating was downgraded, while at the same time Italian banks snapped up regular Italian bonds with LTRO cash._\
> - **_Hedge funds bought the cheap inflation-protected bonds, wrote swaps to offset inflation and then shorted expensive regular Italian bonds, thereby completely hedging out credit risk and inflation and locking in the supply and demand-driven difference between the two bonds._**\
> - _The spread between them was more than 200 basis points, according to Bob Treue, the founder of Barnegat, a US-based fixed income arbitrage hedge fund that has made 18 per cent on its investments so far this year._
Source: [ECB liquidity fuels high stakes hedging](https://www.ft.com/content/cb74d63a-7e75-11e1-b009-00144feab49a#axzz24lB77mEm)
"""

# ╔═╡ 588125ae-e790-4b05-8564-5062d7a556fe
md"""
# The U.S. Treasury Market
- The Department of the Treasury is the largest single issuer of debt in the world.
- The large volume of total debt and the large size of any single issue have contributed to making the Treasury market the most active and hence the most liquid market in the world


[SIFMA Fixed Income Statistics](https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fixed-income-chart)
"""

# ╔═╡ 058954fc-a121-4054-aa74-0b433f6a4d29
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 8957e58a-d454-49e9-a00f-bff4bf6b5199
# ╠═╡ show_logs = false
begin
	FI_Out = DataFrame()
	plot_Outstanding = plot()
	let
		file="./Assets/US-Fixed-Income-Securities-Statistics-SIFMA.xlsx"
		sheet="Outstanding"
		cols="A:I"
		startrow = 8
		xlsxFile = XLSX.readtable(file, sheet, cols; first_row=startrow, header=true, 			infer_eltypes=true)
		FI_Out = DataFrame(xlsxFile...)
				
		catSelect="Treasury"
		println(catSelect)
		plotData = select(FI_Out, "Year","$(catSelect)")
		rename!(plotData,"Year" => :x, "$(catSelect)" => :y)
		dropmissing!(plotData)
		transform!(plotData, :y => ByRow(x->x/1000), renamecols=false)
		minX = 1975
		maxX = 2025
		minY = 0.0
		maxY = 25.0
		plot!(plot_Outstanding, plotData.x,plotData.y, 
			xlim=(minX,maxX), ylim=(minY, maxY),
			ylabel="Trillions of Dollars",label="$(catSelect)",
			legend = :topleft, title="U.S. Treasury Debt Amount Outstanding")	
		plot(plot_Outstanding)
	end
end

# ╔═╡ 22b298e8-bd1d-4b75-91de-56a9936dee51
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 4164b034-8a34-40dc-889b-e4072d54475b
md"""
- Why the Treasury Market matters ...
  - [WSJ, February 1, 2022: U.S. National Debt Exceeds $30 Trillion for First Time](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-national-debt-exceeds-30-trillion-for-first-time-11643766231?mod=hp_lead_pos3)
"""

# ╔═╡ 1af70d1f-1a99-474c-86fb-9d855754f520
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 1539816e-2a47-4ae4-a2a3-7892958cc3ef
Resource("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fleckenstein-m/TIPS_Treas_W2022/main/notebooks/Assets/TreasuryOutstandingSIFMA.svg",:width => 900)

# ╔═╡ 014f362b-ccbb-41ba-ba87-08df662378a4
md"""
[Link to SIFMA](https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fixed-income-chart/)
"""

# ╔═╡ 2a5ba439-7320-4b90-963d-763815b4f289
md"""
##
"""

# ╔═╡ 2ee2c328-5ebe-488e-94a9-2fce2200484c
md"""
#### Reading: 
Fleckenstein, Matthias, Francis A. Longstaff, and Hanno Lustig, 2014, The TIPS–Treasury Bond Puzzle, Journal of Finance, Volume 69, Issue 5, 2014, 2151–2197.

"""

# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
PLUTO_PROJECT_TOML_CONTENTS = """
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[compat]
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# ╔═╡ 00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
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version = "3.5.0+0"

[[deps.xkbcommon_jll]]
deps = ["Artifacts", "JLLWrappers", "Libdl", "Pkg", "Wayland_jll", "Wayland_protocols_jll", "Xorg_libxcb_jll", "Xorg_xkeyboard_config_jll"]
git-tree-sha1 = "ece2350174195bb31de1a63bea3a41ae1aa593b6"
uuid = "d8fb68d0-12a3-5cfd-a85a-d49703b185fd"
version = "0.9.1+5"
"""

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# ╟─00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000001
# ╟─00000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000002
