Will bird flu kill millions?
925628
Bird flu has to mutate into a disease that can spread from human to human before that can happen.  Right now it has only gone from birds to humans who have VERY close contact with those birds.  (Handling dead bodies of infected birds)\nIf it does mutate to a form that can be spread among humas, then it is hard to say how dangerous it could be.
96318
The bird flu isn't really dangerous now, but it has potential to become a serious threat. The main problem with bird flu is its high resistance to antibiotics. And everytime one of those few people with it are treated, there is the chance that new strains resistant to that treatment will develop. \n\nThe main difference between bird flu and malaria is that we generally have malaria isolated in africa, with few exceptions, where as we dont really know how far bird flu has spread. There's also vaccines to prevent malaria and drugs to treat it.\n\nAlso, bird flu hits and kills a person very fast.. typically wthin 3-4 days. The potential of the bird flu has been compared The spanish flu back in 1919 that killed 50-100 million people in a 1 year time span. In comparison, 1-2 million people die from malaria every year.
451441
Tough Question - My glib answer is that it won't happen because I am taking precautions for an outbreak. Evey time I take precautions for a disaster nothing happens;) \n\nWhy I am worried is because one case of human to human transmission has happened in Thailand. Also the flu has a week incubation period and during that time it can be spread.   \n\nSpanish flu killed between 50 & 100 million in 1918 and started off as an avian virus. Experts say that the Spanish flu virus had 12 mutations which made it adapt from just infecting birds to infecting pigs and humans.  The mass fowl cullings around the world seem to be preventing any adapted viruses from starting a human pandemic. However the virus has reached countries that don't have the infrastructure, because of bad government, war and poverty, to identify and contain H5N1 in birds. This means that if the adaption happens it could get a foothold in the human population and then start spreading. \n\nThe next point is what do you mean by "really become  contagious?" \n\nMost of the models of the spread of a pandemic are based on past infections. Most predictions are scientifically valid but they depend on a number of factors that can not be controlled. If avian flu mutates to human to human it may become less lethal and it may not be as contagious as it is now. The only way that the statistics will be proved depends on what the H5N1 virus does next.\n\nThe range of the numbers show just how difficult it is to get a clear idea of what may happen. Here are some numbers I crunched based on assumptions and a worldwide population of 6 billion. Note fatalities are based on no medical treatment. \n\n1.) Bird flu stays in birds and can only be transmitted through eating uncooked chicken, exposure to dead birds and drinking or eating things that have been infected.\n% of world population that gets sick 0.000040%\nNo. Sick 2,400\n% fatalities 63.64%\nNo. fatalities 1,527\n\n2.) Bird flu mutates and is really weakened in the mutation \n% of world population that gets sick 25%\nNo. Sick 1,500,000,000\n% fatalities 0.50% (half a percent)\nNo. fatalities 7,500,000\n\n3.) Bird flu mutates and is as virulent as the spanish flu of 1918 (WHO figures) \n% of world population that gets sick 50%\nNo. Sick 3,000,000,000\n% fatalities 5%\nNo. fatalities 150,000,000\n\nThese models become scarier and scarier the worse the plagues and disasters used as a base. All they really say is that if there is a pandemic people, without medical help, will die. They don't say that it will happen. (If you want to really scare yourself or someone else do the maths on bubonic plague 80% infected and 80% fatalities).  \n\nSo overall I'll say there is a chance of this avian fly being the next pandemic. The chance is not so terrifyingly likely that I am going to sell up and move to a defendable mountaintop and start shooting at strangers. However the chance is big enough that I have spent about $100 dollars on Tamiflu and food - just in case. \n\nThe only people who have told me with a 100% certainty that the pandemic is going to happen and everyone will die are people who are trying to sell me stuff to survive the coming pandemic. I think they are pretty biased.
508935
It is very unlikely that a killer virus (at least of natural origin) will wipe out most of humanity. Few viruses have a mortality rate of greater than 50% which would, by definition, be required if it was going to kill off most of humanity. The 1918 flu pandemic had a mortality rate of 5%. Plague (a bacteria, not a virus)killed about 40% of Europeans in affected areas, but this was before antibiotics were invented. Epidemics with highly lethal viruses (such as ebola) tend to burn out pretty quickly.
410500
ok, here's probably more than you ever wanted to know about influenza:\n\nThere are three types of influenza, types A, B, and C.  Type A is capable of causing epidemics and pandemics, type B can cause epidemics, and type C only causes mild illness.  \n\nSo:\nThe influenza virus is an enveloped virus and it takes its envelope covering from our own cells.  On its surface it has two proteins, NA and HA.  This is how the strains are determined using the H and N.  The H protein goes under antigenic shift means that it can drastically change, the N protein undergoes drift meaning subtle changes.\n\nThe major pandemics/epidemics are as follows:\n\n1918--H1N1--Spanish flu killed over 100 million people\n1957--H2N2--Asian flu killed ~70 million in the US\n1968--H3N2--Hong Kong flu killed ~34 thousand in the US\n1997--H5N1--bird (avian) flu showed up in Hong Kong, all chickens were slaughtered.  In 2003 it shows up again in chickens as well as other birds, 2 people died after being infected, millions of birds killed\n1999--H9N2--shows up in Hong Kong, 2 children infected but live, ducks and chickens slaughtered in response\n2003--H7N7--shows up in the Netherlands, was extremely virulent and killed off all poultry--evidence of swine infection observed\n1994--H7N2--shows up in New York in bird markets and spreads to commercial poultry\nH7N3 shows up and is only lethal in chickens and turkeys\n2004--H5N1--avian flu shows up again\n   \n\nSo, on to the pig-bird connection:\nbirds have an alpha 2-3 binding ability for the virus, humans have an alpha 2-6 ability.  Pigs however have both.  So, if the virus goes from a bird (with an alpha 2-3 binding ability) into a pig (with both alpha 2-3 and alpha 2-6) the virus can mutate within the pig to utilize an alpha 2-6 affinity.  Therefore the H5N1 avian flu can go from a bird, to a pig, then on to a human very easilly.  Now you may be thinking how often do pigs and chickens really hang out?  Well, in Asia (where most of the new flu strains originate) pigs are often raised along with chickens for economic reasons.  So therefore, it is entirely possible that the flu virus will mutate sometime in the near future and create a pandemic.  So far it hasn't mutated and has only infected a small number of people in its original form.  The virus takes up residence deep in the human lungs and is not spread yet from human to human.  So until the virus mutates via pigs, there really isn't much danger.  But it's only a matter of time.  I hope that explains things.
1040019
Curing this flu is no easy matter, avian influenza is so deadly that it is right behind anthrax on the bio-defense list, as a possible terrorist weapon. There are two ways to try to dodge the flu. One is to kill all infected birds. The other is to develop a vaccine before the disease shifts. Because this strain requires four times the usual vaccine dosage it is impossible to produce the 600 million doses our population needs. Current supplies could provide vaccine for 15 million people; that’s only 5% of our population. Accumulated data paints such a frightening pathogenic picture that WHO issued an urgent warning that a flu pandemic could affect billions of people worldwide. Billions because, unlike our annual flu outbreaks, everyone is vulnerable, regardless of age or health. To make matters worse,in Germany, on February 26, 2006, the virus demonstrated its adaptability when a domestic cat  was found dead from  avian influenza. A few days later, an infected stone marten was discovered. This shows us that the virus is changing. Last week it was believed that 6 members of an Indonesian family had all died of avian flu, which could indicate that the virus can now spread through human to human contagion. If a pandemic does strike we will immediately lose 40% of the country's work force. President Bush got less than half of the $7.1 billion he asked for to fight this flu. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist warned Americans that state and federal authorities are "woefully underprepared" to enforce quarantine provisions and distribute medicine, food, and other vital supplies in response to an avian flu pandemic. There isn’t medical equipment or staff enough to handle this outbreak. There are pitifully few ventilators and not enough coffins or cemeteries to bury the dead.  Perhaps as many as 1.7 million Amjericans  will die as the flu cycles through our country.Bush has said he will deploy the U.S. military to enforce a quarantine on areas where infection is found. Well, that’s just ridiculous. Where will the manpower come from? \nThere really isn’t a good solution to the problem. There isn’t enough vaccine; people are going to die. Remember birds distribute the virus through their fluids and feces so watch where you step and stay clear of ducks, they are carriers of the virus but are unaffected by it.  So the best bet is to stock up on water, canned foods and Tamiflu, stay in your own home, limit visitors severely, watch over your old folks and the infants and keep them as washed up as possible, wash your own hands often and pray. But be careful what you pray for … this flu might never be a problem ... it could be some other strain of man-killer flu entirely.
1155222
The bird flu has not been spread outside Asia yet to my knowledge. It is possible from research studies of the Bird Flu that it could become airborne, spread through breathing, if that happens, a world panic would occur. Hopefully it doesn't and researchers will find a cure for it.
242646
From your description I'd say it was run over. So no bird flu. \nBut it might be a good precaution if you just generally stayed away from all and sundry dead animals. Just to get in the habit. \nBy the way, so far people have only picked up bird flu from birds, not from any other animal despite the fact that other animals (e.g. cats) can get it. Don't worry too much.
269756
As of now, several answers to your questions are unknown. While this disease has been in the news for quite a while, it is still a new disease, and we don't know much about it yet. Only time will tell what is going to happen, and what the effects of this disease are.\n\nHere is what is known about it:\nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_flu
266480
nope .....cancer kills millions more , driving kills millions , murderers kill millions \n\nchicken flu killed 7 people worldwide i bet there has been more kills by pcs blowing up ...\n\ndont be scared its just to get your mind off the war ...!!!
258778
Most of our info is very speculative as of now, as when it comes to future mutations of the bird flue, all we have are our fears. Really, we're worried about a recurrance of the Spanish Flue, which killed millions in the early twentieth century. As of now however, there has been only one case of bird flue transmitted between people, the rest has been from bird to poultry worker (total infected is around 100 people I believe). The big deal is, from the infected we've seen, it has a 50% mortality rate, and this is before it's even fully evolved to attack humans.\n\nHowever, a good deal of this is speculation, as it is easily possible that many more have been infected and fealt no adverse effects, or nothing more than a cold. All the cases we now know about were severe enough to warrant hospitalization, but what if there are many more that never had to go to the hospital, and so we never learned about them?\n\nBut, with 2 mutations left to go to be fully suited to attack humans, the avian flue (H1N1) it can't be long until we know for sure.\n\nTo prevent this, people are attempting to quarentine and kill ay infected birds nd poultry, but as you can imagine, this is easier said than done. We're also stocking up on Tamiflu, which some say is our best shot at an antiviral for fighting this thing.\n\nThe Spanish Flu ended when it burned itself out. It moved so quickly that it killed off the more suceptable humans, and the tougher ones became immune. It had nowhere left to go, and died off. If the avian flu is anything like it, the same will happen, though our use of antivirals may hamper this.\n\nThese pandemics are a natural part of population control and evolution. Who can say what we do to our species when we do all we can to fight it, and keep it from having an impact upon us?
197139
I saw a show on oprah, where a representative from the CDC was a guest and they were talking about the bird flu. They say that eventually it will become a pandemic. this is if the virus starts to mutate to be able to spread from human to human efficiently. it may not spread quickly, and it might not even get to that point, we hope. but there is a high chance that it could happen. cases are starting to turn up in europe, its' slowly making it wasy across the continents. it will definately hit america, it may not infect many humans, but it will infect birds.
605630
No. No they can't. \nBird flu can only be passed from a chicken to a human (or mammal) by deeply inhaling some bird poo particles. Eating an egg is not going to give you flu. The same goes for eating the actual chicken - as it is you have to cook it above 100 degrees C to make sure it has no samonella, and H5N1 will not survive that sort of heat.\n\nCheck out www.bbc.co.uk then go to the news page and search for bird flu.
879330
Bird flu is not equivalent to Y2K; it is worse! It kills people, not computer systems! People can function without computers but they can't function if they are dead!
869350
his estimate is low.\nvery low.\nthis plague , when it mutates into human to human contact,\nwill cause world wide chaos,\nand will kill 200 milion people.\n\ni lost my grandmother, 2 uncles, and my father was almost\nkilled from the 1918 - 1919 Flu Pandemic.\nthat pandemic killed 50 million people worldwide.\nrecent research indicates that flu was an avain strain.\nthe world has almost 3 times the population now,\nand with the fast transit of people and goods that exists today\nit will spread rapidly when it mutates.
81998
i am not understanding your question.  are you asking if the flu is deadly?  it's deadly to small children and the elderly, and to people with lowered immune systems.
503848
Bird flu is a viral infection that infect avain species. At the moment it cannot be passed onto humans. But obviously the major concern is to poultry farmers who have alrge stocks of chickens. \n\nIt may also be able to mutate so that the virus can pass onto humans and it has a chance to do so the more birds it infects. So preventing the spread is the best thing we can do just now.