Presidential Futures: Pools of Ignorance
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Voters have plenty of resources to find out who&#39;s leading the latest polls, President Bush or Senator John Kerry, or which states are leaning blue or red.
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Many of our political savants and pundits took one in the teeth last night. I couldn't be happier about last night's surprising results, and not because I favor one candidate or another. I'm just glad the so-called experts in the national media were wrong about their premature assumptions that the Democratic and Republican nominations for president were a done deal.
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A Fool's prediction on the FDA's impending decision on approval.
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Viewpoint: Their post-midterm maturity has given way to presidential posturing
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Sharpen your knowledge of Foolish fundamentals.
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Well, I guess I picked the wrong day to tout the Intrade futures market. On Monday, citing the formidable record of Intrade's bettors in calling elections, I noted their near-certainty that Barack Obama and John McCain would win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors were only half right. As one Lab reader, Tony, observed after the [...].
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Like many of you, I spent a long time watching the election returns come in, and I saw the election eventually handed to George Bush.  I saw exit polls that did not correspond to the results in certain states.  I heard about the diebold president talking about using his machines to turn the election.  I have spent a long time over the past day checking information about the election, information from 2000, comparing data.  And after all of this, I feel I am able to post a list of some questionable data that I have seen:
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Let&#39;s hedge this with all the usual qualifiers. Kerry could pull it out. The spread&#39;s within the margin of error. Respondents to polls are lying out of fear of John Ashcroft.
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In the unpredictable world of politics, leads in the polls and candidates&#39; confidence can evaporate in an instant. But President Bush and his campaign advisers
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President Bush isn't the only lame duck in our nation's capital. All 435 Congressmen are up for re-election next year, and so are 34 of our senators. That's a total of 469 lame ducks, the way I see it.
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President overshadowed by race to chose successor attempts to reassert his primacy
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Fools can draw too many conclusions from too little data.
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Views you can use for clues to tomorrow's news.
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One of the problems with the American Presidency is that it tends to eclipse the entire rest of the government in the public eye. People often seem to almost view the Presidency as if it were the government, rather than just one component of many within the government. In particular, the Presidential election is the only one it is possible to get many people to care about. Voter turnout drops precipitously for those elections where the Presidency is not on the ballot; and on those years where it is, the media coverage for the elections of other offices is almost entirely drowned out in the obsessive coverage of the Presidential campaign. But these other elections are no less important, and in many cases are more so. Despite the neglect they receive these elections are just as critical to our democratic process. By ignoring these elections, our nation is closing its eyes to the bulk of that part of government that affects us on a day to day basis. So what I would like to do is open up the floor and ask: What's happening in the local, non-presidential elections in your area this November?What are the important races (Senators, ballot referendums, etc) and what has been happening in them? What is your perspective on these? Let us know. If your familiarity with local politics is less than complete, Project Vote Smart offers a great deal of information on American elections and is a good place to get started.
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There have been some big moves recently in the prediction markets that are tracking the presidential campaign.
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As expected by most analysts, uncertainty during the US presidential election period has proven negative for the US dollar. While George W. Bush is currently more likely to win the election, the race between
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A brief history of the Presidential Election Campaign Fund: