Economic View: So We Thought. But Then Again . . .
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Harry S Truman once said he wanted to talk to a one-armed economist, âso that the guy could never make a statement and then say: âon the other hand.â â
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Looking to beat the market this year and beyond? We have some ideas.
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âOvertreated,â by Shannon Brownlee is the best description I have yet read of a huge economic problem that we know how to solve â but is so often misunderstood.
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There is a dissonance between two camps of modern liberal ideology, both of which have had a deep influence on my thinking. On the one hand there is the green ideology that advocates buying locally produced products or growing your own and the general  reduction of energy usage. On the other there is the drop the debt coalition that is attempting to help the developing world drag itself up and become a richer place.   This article is my attempt to resolve their influence on my own beliefs, with regards to philanthropy.
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Why it fails to invest at the point of maximum optimism.
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Americans have the right idea about money -- and are going about it all wrong.
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Readers remark on education reform, the free market and the opinion of a man named Steve Jobs. Plus: Links to our most popular blog posts.
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There is a lot of unreasonable second-guessing and finger-pointing that goes on in the business world. It just comes with the territory any time mistakes cost money.
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Putting the recent collapse in perspective.
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One of the tongue-in-cheek rules that we column-writers have is, "Often wrong, never in doubt." Take a stand, don't duck and weave too much. But someone as opinionated as I am should not only have no doubt, but shouldn't be wrong too often. No one's perfect, though. As witness the column I wrote three weeks ago as I headed for vacation, warning you not to buy Google at its initial public offering price.
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Stagflation, left for dead in the '70s, could be upon us once again.
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Greenspan's vaunted wisdom may just have landed us in a big bowl of soup.
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âOvertreated,â by Shannon Brownlee, is the best description I have yet read of a huge economic problem that we know how to solve â but is so often misunderstood.
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Fred Wilson thinks so. And I agree. The reason the tech sector runs in cycles of euphoric booms and deep busts is that there is little support for long-term investment in tech. The new concepts that will fuel the next boom cycle are already here, but there isn't enough money flowing into developing them. The ideas that are getting investment are more and more derivative of the original idea that fueled the boom cycle that is now (likely) coming to an end. If you look back at the last two busts, there was one in the early 90s when the software boom had run out of juice, and then in the early 00s when the web boom had run its course. In both cases, the seeds of the next boom were already planted, but the investors weren't pushing money in their direction. The savior after the early 90s bust was the web, and the second was what they call Web 2.0, which is a really lame way to describe the networked creative environment, what I called the Two-Way Web. I'm going to be in NY in October, and I hope to meet with Fred and other investors to talk about how we can soften the busts and enhance the booms.
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We unquestionably live better than we used to, but there are real reasons to worry whether the economic gains can continue at anything like their recent pace.
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Be careful when presented with methods that claim to time the market.
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This weekâs snapshot of the nationâs economic output may offer two surprises for the price of one. It may be stronger than expected and weaker than it seems.