Dueling Fools: 2008 Bull
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Things aren't as bad as you think heading into the new year.
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Yesterday's piece, lightly edited, on the Huffington Post. http://x98.us/jz  I think it looks pretty good over there!
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It's a familiar scene at any rodeo: A bull bucks and spins, eventually flinging a cowboy into the air and onto the dirt. On television replays, it takes on a whole new dimension: Viewers see an animated bar chart that details the acceleration and deceleration of the animal. It ultimately stops on a number that represents the power of a particular bull.
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Well, I guess I picked the wrong day to tout the Intrade futures market. On Monday, citing the formidable record of Intrade's bettors in calling elections, I noted their near-certainty that Barack Obama and John McCain would win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors were only half right. As one Lab reader, Tony, observed after the [...].
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Okay, if the mind is powerful, how is your mind making you feel today? It's worth thinking about -- with the stock market down this year, every day worse than the last, many of us are losing lots of money, I know I am, and it's not a good feeling.  I keep arguing with myself, even though I'm losing money at a huge rate, I'm still in good shape financially, I have a nice house, I can pay the bills. But it doesn't help. Inside I feel unsettled, poor, I'm having trouble concentrating. Does it help that I've been through this before? The crash of 1987 was much worse than this downturn, and then I had no cushion, nothing to fall back on, I wasn't even employed when it happened. I was a lot closer to being broke around the turn of the century, even though the market was doing very well. But it doesn't help. No matter how many times I've been through it, I've always known that it's cyclic, that the outlook will likely improve, but knowing isn't the same as feeling. The feeling is much stronger, it can't be counteracted with logic. I can't reason with the feeling, you might say it's un-reasonable. Then I heard that a friend of mine, much younger, with a lot less at stake in the market, is having trouble sleeping because of this feeling. I realize I'm not alone, probably millions of people have a heightened sense of insecurity right now. Does that make it better? Not really... Anyway, I thought, let's post something and find out how others feel about the economy and how much of an impact is it having on our state of mind.
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The BullTrade newsletter continues its reign as top Internet newsletter. Completing its ninth year of business, the newsletter portfolio is continuing to crush the competition in 2006, up 81.1% year-to-date. Trades have been both long and short.
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Elephants on parade, bulls on the beach, bears on the bench. It&#39;s going to be quite a week on Wall Street. Although how many Wall Streeters will be around is up in the air.
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Blog: Plenty of other game companies were throwing parties Wednesday night, but this one had a mechanical bull. Watch the video.
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The microstock business balances attracting customers, making money, and keeping photographers happy. iStockphoto is adjusting its formula for 2008.
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More than 56 percent of U.S. money  managers are "bullish" or "very bullish" about the U.S. stock  market near term, forecasting stocks will move higher in the  next eight months, according to a new Barron's poll.
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The 20th anniversary of the stock market's brutal 1987 crash has triggered explosive debate about whether today's raging, yet dubious, bull market in world stocks is headed for the same fate.
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Now after a few days at Davos our correspondents, Robert Scoble and Mike Arrington, are starting to get into the groove. I'm sure much has changed there since I went, in 2000, but I can tell that some important things haven't. For a first time Davoser, the most important thing is to build your network. Until you have a way to share the experience, you're not really there yet. At first it's all about being star-struck. Look there's Henry Kissinger (in my year it was Madeline Allbright). And there's Yassir Arafat (he's dead now). Shimon Peres was there in 2000, but now he's back in power. As was the king of Jordan, but he was very young, now like me, he has more gray hair.  My year was the year of "How Do You Make Money on the Internet." So that's what I wrote about. And it was also the valedictory year for Bill Clinton. His struggles were behind him, he could now look forward to one more year in office and then a lifetime as a former President. John McCain had won New Hampshire while Davos was on, and the nastiness in South Carolina was about to start.  You could tell that Clinton had the weight off his shoulders. He still had Air Force One for a year, he could become a statesman, and he was doing a great job of it. Jet-lagged and with no American TV cameras recording the speech he said "Find a shared vision," his formula for finding peace in the Middle East. I was inspired. He can be a great speaker, almost as great as Barack Obama. I tried to take his message to Bill Gates and Steve Case, both whom are off the tech stage now, replaced by Eric Schmidt and Mark Zuckerberg. FASV is still the challenge. Seems BillC could use a dose of his own advice. Amazing that the Democrats can't find a shared vision. I always thought Clinton was a phony, I gave him the benefit of the doubt in Davos in 2000. He didn't deserve it, he's proving in 2008. When Scoble and Arrington come home let's hope they can help us find a shared vision. The great thing about Davos, imho, is the elevation and the clean mountain air can improve your vision, and inspire you to great heights. The trick is to bring that home with you, hold it and nurture it, and build something from it. I think the great leaders on stage don't get that feeling as much as the newbies do. You only go to your first Davos once, Mike and Robert, let it work its magic on you.
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The markets rallied in the year 2006, and making money was not a difficult task.  But the BullTrade.com (http://www.bulltrade.com) portfolio outdid the general market, and continued to outperform the large majority of mutual funds.
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Deconstructing a pretty good joke, and the investment lesson held within.
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How will the Nasdaq 100's top two performers in 2007 perform in 2008?
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Over the last year, this stock has been sweet.
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The current bull market is getting long in the tooth. Is your portfolio ready for a downturn?