Gartner forecasts three lean years for PC market
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The market for personal computers will undergo ``three lean years&#39;&#39; starting in 2005, with a marked slowdown in demand, research firm Gartner said.
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The global personal computer market is expected to grow at a modest pace in 2005 as the economic recovery slows, according to a report Wednesday by a market research firm.
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(InfoWorld) - Even as PC sales continue double-digit growth, industry revenue is likely to decline 2.5 percent to US$198.5 billion in 2006, according to a forecast released Friday by Gartner Inc. Worldwide PC shipments are scheduled to rise 10.5 percent over last year, reaching 233.7 million units. The disparity comes because PC vendors have been slashing the prices of desktops and notebooks as they hustle to compete with each other. Another force pushing computer prices down is a series of recent price cuts by Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. on their processors, the most expensive part of a PC. Now, as the holiday sales season approaches, things could get even worse for vendors like Dell Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. In additional to wrestling with each other, they will also have to compete with consumer electronics companies, said George Shiffler, a research director at Gartner. Shoppers have a limited number of dollars to spend on electronics. That spells trouble for PC vendors since the price of a low-end desktop is comparable to a smartphone and its accompanying service contract, he said. Flat panel TVs will also compete with PCs, since excess production capacity has lowered LCD (liquid crystal display) prices and producers are expected to cut prices further with aggressive holiday discounts. Even Microsoft Corp.'s impending launch of the new Vista OS will produce only a temporary rise in sales, Shiffler said. The Gartner study echoes weak financial results at Dell, the world's largest PC vendor. Dell blamed cost cutting and weak demand for $14.1 billion in revenue for the quarter ended Aug. 4. That number was up only 5 percent over the same period last year although Dell sold 11.6 percent more computers worldwide, climbing from 8.7 million in the second quarter of 2005 to 9.7 million this year. Looking past 2006, the flood of low-cost PCs will drive brisk sales in emerging markets through 2008, but mature markets like the U.S. will soon slump to single-digit growth, Gartner said.
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(InfoWorld) - PC vendors reported global shipment growth of 12.5 percent in the second quarter as every major vendor except Dell posted a double-digit percentage increase in unit shipments compared to the same period last year, according to a report released Wednesday by IDC. Dell shipped 4.9 percent fewer PCs during the quarter than it did in 2006 as the company continued to struggle with a corporate restructuring effort that has included deep job cuts, changes in executive leadership, and a new strategy of selling computers through retail channels instead of only online. In contrast, Hewlett-Packard Co. (HP) consolidated its position as the world's largest PC vendor with unit shipment growth of 36.5 percent. Overall, vendors sold 58.8 million PCs in the quarter, IDC said. A report released on the same day by Gartner showed similar results with Dell sliding 5.5 percent compared to HP's growth of 36.6 percent. Gartner reported that global PC shipments rose 11.7 percent to 61.1 million units. HP is seeing good results because of a multifaceted approach that allows the company to concentrate its sales efforts on new regions if sales slump in another sector, said David Daoud, manager of the personal computing and PC tracker programs at IDC. "They are not putting all their eggs in a single basket," he said. "That is the result for a company that has adopted a multifaceted approach. PC shipments were slightly better than expected in the U.S., but they have done even better outside the U.S. in emerging markets and western Europe. So they can manage multiple regions." Despite the contrast in trends, none of the top five vendors changed their worldwide rankings by market share. For the quarter, HP claimed the top spot with 19.3 percent of global PC sales volume, leading Dell with 16.1 percent, Lenovo with 8.3 percent, Acer with 7.2 percent and Toshiba with 4.1 percent, according to IDC. The Gartner study showed the same rankings. However, Acer could soon begin to climb the rankings, if its success continues. The company improved its PC shipment volume by 55.4 percent in the second quarter, pulling close behind Lenovo, which grew at 22.3 percent. "Acer is laser-focused on particular segments, especially SMB and channel resellers," Daoud said. "They are just plowing." In the U.S., Acer is only the sixth-biggest PC vendor but showed the fastest rise in shipments, improving by 163.8 percent over the second quarter of 2006. Overall, the U.S. market is lead by Dell with 28.4 percent market share by shipments, then HP with 23.6 percent, Gateway and Apple with 5.6 percent each, Toshiba with 5.3 percent, and Acer with 5.2 percent. IDC counts PC shipments including sales of desktops, notebooks, ultraportables, and x86 servers, but not handhelds. Overall, the global market achieved its 12.5 percent shipment growth in the quarter thanks to good activity in the Asia-Pacific region and to slightly better than expected activity in the U.S., Daoud said. That growth rate was higher than the first quarter, when shipments rose 10.9 percent over that period in the previous year, and higher than the second quarter of 2006, when shipments rose 9.7 percent year on year. For the future, consumers continue to buy notebooks instead of desktops as the cost premium between the two models has narrowed to its smallest differential yet. IDC forecast strong growth in the second half of 2007 but said that market competition will be more complex than just cutting prices. Instead, PC vendors will try to get customers' attention with system design, customer service, channel coverage, and market expansion.
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A Gartner analyst predicted that mobile users may soon be able to leave their laptops at home when they travel and run all the applications they need on smart phones and other handhelds.
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A set of blogging predictions from Gartner, a research firm that tracks all things technological, is making waves inside and outside the blogosphere. In its latest report, Gartner predicted that blogging -- the most loved, feared, and hyped Web trend since the emergence of e-mail -- will level off in 2007, leaving its startling growth rates behind.
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The number of personal computers worldwide is expected to rise to 1.3 billion by 2010 say analysts.
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Buyers are waiting for quad-core machines and need fewer servers in general, in part because of virtualization, Gartner says.
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Gartner researchers believe that as many as 50% of the IT operational jobs in the U.S. could disappear over the next two decades because of coming improvements in data center technologies.
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(InfoWorld) - Despite a revenue plunge of 9.5 percent, Intel Corp. will retain its title as king of the hill for the worldwide semiconductor industry, posting annual revenue of $31.3 billion for 2006, according to Gartner. Intel's top competitors will post much better numbers, all recording double-digit revenue growth as they enjoy strong sales in dynamic RAM (DRAM) memory chips, wireless semiconductors and NAND flash, according to preliminary results for 2006 that Gartner released Thursday. Overall, the market is set to grow 11.3 percent to $261.4 billion. Intel's sinking results in this rising tide will cause its market share to sag from 14.7 percent in 2005 to 12 percent. The company was only able to record its 15th straight year as a market leader because it had banked such a large lead on smaller rivals like Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (with 7.9 percent market share) and Texas Instruments Inc. (4.5 percent). Intel's problem was that its competitor Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) sold superior processors through the third quarter, judging by the chips' balance of price and performance in the server and consumer enthusiast segments, Gartner said. Intel lost even more revenue as the two companies launched a price war, which hurt Intel more than AMD as the larger company. Meanwhile, Samsung strengthened its position as the industry's second-biggest vendor by selling more DRAM, static RAM (SRAM) and NAND flash chips than any other company. Samsung will grow 12.4 percent to reach revenues of $20.6 billion, followed by Texas Instruments growing 17.4 percent to $11.9 billion and Infineon Technologies AG growing 29 percent to reach $10.6 billion, Gartner said. The bottom half of the top 10 were all predicted to record revenue of single-digit billions, including STMicroelectronics NV, Toshiba Corp., Renesas Technology Corp., Hynix Semiconductor Inc., AMD and Freescale Semiconductor Inc. The semiconductor industry will grow more slowly in 2007, likely rising by a high single-digit percentage compared to its 11.3 percent rise in 2006, Gartner said. The high points of the coming year will include continuing strength in the DRAM market and strong consumer electronics sales.ADVERTISEMENTNEW IT SERVICES FROM IBM: EASIER TO BUY AND IMPLEMENTDiscover a simpler, more cost-effective way to get the solutions your company needs to grow more flexible and efficient.
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BOSTON - The semiconductor industry remains on track to record a significant increase in revenue during 2004, according to Gartner Inc.'s latest forecast for the year released Tuesday. After that, however, the outlook takes a turn for the worse.
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Capitalizing on the DDR2 market momentum -- a market expected to grow from 11 percent this year to 50 percent by the end of next year according to Gartner Dataquest -- Seoul, South Koreaâs Samsung Electronics Co.
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At a mobile and wireless technology conference held by Gartner Inc., analyst Nick Jones said traveling users will be able to run all the apps they need off of handheld devices within two years -- a prediction that some attendees are hoping comes true.
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Market research firm Gartner reported worldwide growth of PDA shipments for the third quarter of 2004, with Windows CE outpacing Palm OS installations for the first time.
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Blog: Gartner forecast says while PC shipments worldwide will increase even more than previously thought, the average selling price should continue to drop after this year's brief bump.
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Spending in Eastern Europe and Asia is expected to lead a recovery in the global technology market over the next three years, according to an industry report released Tuesday.
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Taiwanese PC vendor Acer predicts its PC shipments will grow as much as 35 percent this year led by a strong notebook PC market, a pace of growth that could see the company challenge U.S. rivals by the end of this year.Acer&#39;s revenue grew 25 percent last year to NT$461.7 billion (US$14.42 billion) and the company made inroads to the world&#39;s largest PC market, the U.S., by acquiring Gateway. The revenue figure is preliminary and only includes Gateway&#39;s last two and a half months of the year because the merger process took place late in the year.Acer bought Gateway&#160;for US$710 million last year.But the figures and PC shipments had a tremendous impact on Acer&#39;s global PC rankings in the final three months of 2007.The company took a solid third place in global PC shipments last year,&#160;topping Chinese rival Lenovo and gaining ground on Dell. Acer&#39;s global PC shipment market share during the fourth quarter of 2007 reached 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter, up 60 percent over the same time a year earlier, according to IDC, the industry researcher.Lenovo, which had been jockeying for third place with Acer all year, fell to fourth with a 7.5 percent share of the global market. HP retained its first place ranking with 19 percent market share, while Dell remained firmly in second place at 14.6 percent.&quot;Combined Acer/Gateway growth continued to be the fastest among the top vendors and is a very solid performance for the first quarter of merged operations,&quot; IDC said in a statement. &quot;Acer also clearly established itself as the third largest vendor, overtaking Lenovo, and seems to be handling the Gateway integration quickly,&quot; the statement says.This year, Acer forecast its PC shipments overall will rise between 30 percent and 35 percent, led by 40 percent shipment growth in notebook PCs. Such strong growth could help the company challenge Dell, which saw its PC shipments grow only 1.7 percent in 2007, according to figures from Gartner. The market researcher put Acer&#39;s shipment growth last year at 32.9 percent for the year.Acer&#39;s chairman, J.T. Wang, predicted last October that Acer could take up to a 12 percent share of the global PC market, putting it in the position to challenge Dell.Acer&#39;s net profit was NT$12.9 billion in 2007, up from NT$10.2 billion a year earlier. The company&#39;s 2007 figures are all preliminary, Acer said. Final results will be published later.&#160;