One in three Americans expects recession
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One in three Americans expects a U.S. recession in the next year, and less than a quarter think home prices will rise, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
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A pair of Forrester Research analysts gave CIOs a passel of advice Thursday on how to deal with the possibility of a U.S. economic recession.&quot;We are not predicting a recession, but we think its important for CIOs to be proactive, to get their businesses ready in case there is a recession,&quot; said analyst Andrew Bartels, who conducted the teleconference with colleague Alex Cullen.Their recommendations boiled down to a number of main themes: The right ways to cut costs, to work closely with CFOs, and to plan not only for the lean times but for the good ones that inevitably follow.&quot;Get close to your CFO. You want to be arm in arm with that CFO,&quot; Bartels stressed.Forrester said there is a 55 percent probability the economy will remain essentially stabilized, due to factors including U.S. exports boosted by a weak dollar. The firm projects a 35 percent chance the country will enter a shallow recession, and a 10 percent chance it will fall into a deep one.The analysts said to watch for two key warning signs: Gas prices rising above $4 a gallon and two or more consecutive months of non-farm payroll employment.If they haven&#39;t already, CIOs should prepare now by reviewing their portfolios and identify which projects could be postponed, cut, or cancelled, he said.&quot;If you&#39;re running things well, adapting to recession is easier,&quot; Cullen noted.The tradeoffs vary depending on the type of cut, he said. For example, delaying hardware purchases could result in increased service outages.CIOs could also try other tactics, such as renegotiating vendor pacts or enacting hiring freezes, according to Forrester. Such measures could antagonize business partners and overburden staff, they said.But those types of risks are mild in comparison to that posed by cutting certain types of &quot;low-hanging fruit,&quot; such as time and support for research and development.&quot;These things look like they don&#39;t have immediate payback, so the question is &#39;Why are we doing them when times are tight?&#39;&quot; Cullen said.Likewise, it would be foolish to pull money and resources away from architectural strategy, he argued: &quot;You&#39;re going to be impeding your ability to take a long-term view of IT investments. When the tap opens up again people are going to be creating silos ... and you&#39;re going to spend your time unwinding these things.&quot;&quot;The worst thing you can do as a CIO is get so focused on cuts that when you come out of a recession, your department can&#39;t take the business where it wants to be,&quot; Bartels added.Outsourcing IT may also look like an appealing option, but the analysts issued a stern warning against it as a quick fix.Large-scale outsourcing deals take a long time to close, for one thing, Cullen argued: &quot;This is not near-term savings. This is not 2008 savings.&quot; But outsourcing of a particular IT function could make sense, he said.The hot trend of the past couple of years -- SaaS (software as a service) -- is not necessarily a fitting remedy during a recession, the analysts argued. While SaaS vendors relentlessly tout the cost savings their offerings can provide, it would cost a lot more to rip and replace legacy assets with SaaS products, the analysts said. However, they added, SaaS might offer lower upfront costs for a new technology.
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The likelihood of the United States slipping into recession is at least 50 percent, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying on Wednesday, in an interview with a German newspaper.
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A plunge in construction spending threatens to drive the American economy into recession.
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Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.
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Some fear that American consumers will pull back from their exuberant spending, cooling demand for goods worldwide and dragging down the global economy.
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The odds of a recession in the United  States are "clearly rising" due to the slowing rate of economic  growth, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in  an interview with National Public Radio.
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Top forecasters cut their outlooks  for U.S. growth this year and next but said inflation seems to  be leveling off and consumer spending should strengthen in the  months ahead, a survey out on Friday showed.
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Backs to the wall, recession's a 50% likelihood.
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Expectations for the weakest  consumer spending performance in 17 years during 2008 kept the  odds of a recession at nearly 40 percent, a survey of top  forecasters showed on Thursday.
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The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.
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Americans are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the US economy and blaming President George W. Bush, according to Gallup poll figures released.
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US economic growth should slow over the coming year as consumers cut back on spending, but improved business confidence should help hiring, a wide-ranging survey of forecasters found.
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Consumers worried about job prospects. Raises questions about whether Americans will be in spending mood during holidays. Worries about job prospects sent consumer confidence in the United States to a seven
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The odds of a recession in the United States are "clearly rising" due to the slowing rate of economic growth, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said in an interview with National Public Radio.
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With recession looming, there are pitfalls and opportunities.
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There is a 40 percent chance that the United States economy will fall into recession next year, a senior analyst at Fitch Ratings said on Thursday.