The Economy We Await for 2008
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With the New Year likely to perpetuate many of 2007's trends, the keys are caution and patience
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Investor's Business Daily - President Bush said the long-term outlook was bright despite current troubles. "Given the economy's strong basic structure, free mobility of labor, relatively low taxes, well-balanced capital markets and openness to trade, prospects for continued growth in the years ahead remain good," said a report by Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. The White House stuck to its forecast for 2.7% growth in '08, far above the 1.6% predicted by private-sector economists.
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The OECD revised the growth projections for its major members. The growth of the US economy this year is likely to be 4.3 percent, instead of an earlier forecast of 4.7 percent, it said.
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U.S. economic activity should pick up for the rest of this year and into 2008 as the drag from a decline in the housing market dissipates, the International Monetary Fund said Friday.
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Forrester Research has revised projections for IT investment in 2008 down from previous research published in October, predicting the year ahead will be a slow one both in the U.S. and globally.In the report, &quot;U.S. And Global IT Spending And Purchases In 2008: Will The Grinch Of A Slowing US Economy Steal The Presents Of A Stronger 2008 IT Market?&quot; Forrester said it expects U.S. IT investment growth to slow slightly to 4.8 percent in 2008 from 5.3 percent in 2007. Previously, the research firm had predicted U.S. IT spending growth would be about 8 percent in 2008, led by software and network equipment.The areas hardest hit by the downturn will be computer and communications equipment and IT services, the latter being typically the first to get hit, said principal analyst Andrew Bartels. &quot;The first things CIOs cut are consultants and contractors,&quot; he said. &quot;They are readily delayable and cancellable items in the portfolio of spending.&quot;Despite this outlook, there is some good news for next year&#39;s U.S. IT market. According to Bartels, the slowdown in 2008 will happen mainly from the first quarter to the third quarter with growth in the fourth quarter of the year that will continue into 2009.In its year-end report, Forrester defines IT investment as spending in computer equipment, communications equipment and software. It adds spending in two other segments -- IT services and outsourcing and IT staff salary and benefits -- for its definition of IT spending.CIOs in the U.S. should plan conservative budgets because of the possibility that the economy will go into recession, Bartels said.However, there are technologies on the horizon that CIOs should prepare to implement in 2009, so they have the difficult task in 2008 of juggling conservatism and an eye to the future, Bartels said. Those emerging technologies include unified communications infrastructure and dynamic business applications. If they can, CIOs will increase spending and investments toward the end of 2008 and in 2009 to prepare for these technologies, he said.&quot;It&#39;s important CIOs ... don&#39;t get so cautious they&#39;re not ready for the next wave,&quot; Bartels said.Global IT purchases also are expected to slow slightly in 2008, from 12 percent in 2007 to 9 percent in 2008, but the U.S. market is expected to perform competitively despite the slowdown. The Asia-Pacific region, as it was in 2007, will remain an outstanding market in 2008, a year in which it may approach the U.S. in terms of size, Bartels said.&quot;Asia-Pacific is starting to become a factor in the market,&quot; he said. &quot;A year from now, we&#39;ll be able to say it&#39;s a stone&#39;s throw from the size of the U.S. market and may well pass it in 2009.&quot;In 2007, Asia-Pacific surpassed Europe in market size in terms of IT purchases, and that measure is expected to grow in Asia-Pacific by 15 percent in 2008, according to Forrester. IT purchases in the U.S., Canada, Latin America, and Europe will grow 5 percent to 7 percent next year, while in the Eastern Europe/Middle East/Africa region, purchases are expected to grow the same rate as in Asia-Pacific.The strength of Asia-Pacific is good news for U.S. technology vendors, as they&#39;ve &quot;been able to overcome a sluggish technology economy in U.S. with the Asian market,&quot; Bartels said.
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Ernesto Zedillo on the uncertainty of the global finanical picture in the year ahead.
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In one area at least, the new economy is  delivering on its promise.
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Washington Post staff writer Jonathan Weisman discusses a story that looks at why the economy may not be the best predictor of the outcome in this year's presidential election.
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WASHINGTON -- Despite soaring oil prices and a slumping dollar, the United States enjoyed a banner year in terms of economic growth in 2004, but the new year is likely to see a significant slowdown, private economists say.
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In 2007, AMD was plagued by rising debt, shrinking market share and mounting financial losses. What's in store for 2008?
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The US economy will grow in 2008, the White House says, shrugging off concerns that the US is facing a recession.
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In one area at least, the new economy is delivering on its promise.
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At the Thrift Savings Plan, 2007 was a year of growth and 2008 looks like a year of change.
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As 2004 draws to a close, it should come as heartening news that this past year was one of the most prosperous in history. Not because the American economy grew by a solid 4.3 percent.
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Economic assumptions from President Bush's proposed 2008 budget:
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A year ago, the housing market was cooling, interest rates were on the rise and the conventional wisdom was that 2006 would be the year that the U.S. economy sputtered. One could be forgiven for thinking that the Washington regional economy would slow down after a blistering three years.
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Greenspan charts our economic course in 'The Age of Turbulence.' An excerpt.