united-states finance gambling voting
Could Trump bet on winning the presidential election?
<p>This question came up during a discussion with some friends after I placed a bet on a certain candidate (let's call him T) winning an upcoming presidential election in a Western country, call it USA. It was pointed out that I may have (inadvertently and infinitesimally) helped T: Due to the dynamics of a betting market the next person placing a similar bet will be offered (very slightly) worse odds, which is indistinguishable from the market believing that the chances of T winning just went (very slightly) up. In a way, this is very similar to stating that I would vote for T when asked in a poll. </p>

<p>The question now arises: Would it be legal for T to place a massive bet for himself (thus skewing the betting market)? Would it make a difference if it was known what his motives were (i.e., skewing the marked against just being convinced of his victory and wanting to make a profit)? Could he bet he would lose the election? Could T suggest to his voters they should place such bets?</p>

<p>(It seems very analogous to bribing people to vote for T in polls, so intuition tells me no. At the same time, why would they be forbidden from placing a bet anyone else is allowed to place?)</p>

<p><em>Edit to clarify:</em> The question originally applies to online betting, e.g., on betfair. I would be most interested, however, in knowing if there exists a betting market where a presidential candidate could place such a bet.</p>

<p>It depends on the rules of the particular betting market and the laws under which it operates.</p>

<p>Assuming that the bet itself is legal, it is not uncommon that participants in the contest are not allowed to bet, not because they distort the market, but because they can influence the outcome. Consider if instead of betting to <em>win</em>, Mr Trump bet on himself to <em>lose</em> and then do something which would reduce his chances (hard to imaging what he could do that he hasn't done but anyway).</p>
